Club and Referee stats, and the Arsenal team v Newcastle

 

 

 

• Arsenal v Newcastle: our regular ref who waves yellow at Arsenal – and the implications
• Arsenal v Newcastle; home and away and the possible final table

By Tony Attwood

The BBC open their build-up report with the news that “Newcastle have beaten Arsenal three times this season – once in the league and in both legs of the EFL Cup semi-finals. No side has ever defeated the Gunners four times in a single campaign.”   They then rub it all in by telling us that Arsenal haven’t won in the last five league and cup games, haven’t won in their last four home games, but have “only lost their final home league game of the season once in the past 27 seasons, winning 22 and drawing four.”

So maybe there is hope after all.

This will be the 197th game between Arsenal and Newcastle United with Arsenal winning 85, which is just over 43% and Newcastle at just under 37% with 72 wins.

However since May 2022 the results have not been of the best from Arsenal’s point of view, with two victories, one draw and five defeats – the last two of these being in the League Cup earlier this year.  The one decent victory Arsenal have managed was the 4-1 home win on 24 February last year.   Havertz, Saka and Kiwior got the goals, along with an own goal to add to the fun.

The referee is Simon Hooper.  His record this season is 47.8% of his games are home wins, 26.1% are away wins and a similar 26.1% were draws.  He is not the most pro-home-team referee however, as John Brooks sees over two thirds of his games as home wins, while at the other extreme, referee Robert Jones sees only 19% of his games as home wins.

Meanwhile Anthony Taylor has overseen an astonishing 30 league games this season and half of them have been away wins!  Yet again we see that which referee the club gets has a major impact on the results.

So if the referee follows his normal pattern of behaviour we should be ok.  If however someone at PGMO has told him to “balance his figures” before the end of the season, every decision could be going against us.

Meanwhile, on a different matter I should add that although, as we have seen, Newcastle have been doing very well of late, standing at the moment fourth in the league table for the last six games, if we consider the last six games broken down by home and away form we see the gap between today’s two teams has shrunk and is now slightly in Arsenal’s favour.

 

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
11	Arsenal home	6	2	2	2	7	7	0	8
13	Newcastle away	6	2	1	3	6	11	-5	7

 

Now we must admit that since winning the League Cup on 16 March, Newcastle (according to their stats) have been doing rather well.  But a look at who they played tells as different tale, for their victories have been against Brentford, Leicester City, Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Ipswich Town and Chelsea.   

Of those teams, two have been relegated, one was distracted by the forthcoming FA Cup final, one has the most hopeless financial issues and the other was Chelsea who have lost four and drawn one of their last six away games.  In essence, none of these teams have been putting on much of a show against Newcastle, who have had just about the easiest ride possible of late in terms of league games.

In terms of injuries, Newcastle have four players ruled out: Lewis Hall, Joelinton Apolinario de Lira, Matt Targett and Kieran Trippier.  On the doubtful list are Sven Botman who seems unlikely to make it and Joe Willock who has a 50/50 chance of playing.

Injured for Arsenal are Gabriel Jesus, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Gabriel, and Merino.  Rated 50/50 are Declan Rice and Gabriel Martinelli.  There is talk of a return for Kai Havertz – the report reads, “‘He’s done certain parts of the sessions in the last two days and looks in great shape, but I think it’s more of a shout for all the medical staff and the doctor, especially, to give the clearance. Then it’s how Kai actually feels to contribute if he’s required.”

The media however are not impressed.   MSN offer us as their line up

Raya;

White, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly;

Odegaard, Partey, Rice;

Saka, Trossard, Martinelli 

The Metro, who for reasons known only to themselves always print their line ups upside down offer (when turned around) exactly the same. As indeed do the Standard.

My view, for what it is worth, is that no one will be risked but the strong team will be put out in the hope of a win, so that various returnees, and maybe a few youngsters can get some time on the pitch in the last match away to relegated Southampton.   (Southampton are playing Everton at noon today).

A win today would make for a very relaxed final game, with the chance to play any returnees who are fit, and maybe one or two youngsters.