By Tony Attwood
- Arsenal, the top seven, and the lost two. What we found this season
- Is there, at long, long last, an international uprising against state financed clubs?
Although Arsenal are only the sixth best-performing team at home, and Newcastle are the fifth best-performing team away, there is still a significant difference between what the clubs have achieved this season home and away, as the table shows.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arsenal home | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 36 |
| 5 | Newcastle United away | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 28 |
A quick look at the goal difference of the two clubs (+17 to Arsenal, +2 to Newcastle) shows the overall effectiveness of the teams, although Arsenal at home have dropped a considerable number of points this season, undoubtedly due to the ludicrous level of injuries the club has suffered.
These figures become a spot more worrying when we add in the last-six-game table which is normally a very good guide to the way each side will approach the match psychologically.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Newcastle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 13 |
| 11 | Arsenal | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
This obviously is not where we expect Arsenal to be, and is of course due to the impact of the two games against PSG.
But of course all the teams at the top are looking to secure their place in the top five slots for the Champions League next season. Arsenal remain second for the moment, yet could be overtaken by any of the teams currently sitting between third and seventh.
As we have noted before, Arsenal’s final game of the season looks very winnable, but even so, it will put a lot of pressure on Arsenal if they go into that game having to win.
So, with the right run of results, any of Newcastle, Chelsea, Villa and ManC could overtake Arsena. But a win in either of the two remaining games would put Arsenal out of the reach of Chelsea and Aston Villa, and barring some extraordinary scoring, Manchester City.
But of course, we want second place and that can be secured with a draw and a win without having to think about other teams – although two wins would be preferable.
Newcastle, like Arsenal, are a team that have had dips in form that they find difficult to get out of.. One such occurred between 15 February and 10 March for Newcastle as in four league games and one in the FA Cup they managed to win two and lose three. What was particularly interesting in that run was that they only scored six goals but conceded 11, as they lost to Manchester City, Liverpool, and Brighton and Hove, while beating Nottingham Forest and West Ham.
Newcastle of course are doing the same sort of calculations as Arsenal in terms of securing a spot in the Champs League next time around. Chelsea, Aston Villa, ManC and Nottingham F could all overtake Newcastle if results fall that way, which means they could slip out of the Champions League places.
However, Newcastle’s final game of the season is at home to Everton who have only won two games in their last ten in the league, and whose entire outlook focuses on playing by the riverside in the next campaign. So just as Arsenal will expect to beat Southampton in their final game, Newcastle can expect to win their last match as well. Everton are safe, the new stadium awaits, and no one in their side will want to be injured.
This doesn’t mean both Newcastle and Arsenal will not chase the game tomorrow, but both will know they have a safety net available in terms of that last game.
A draw between the two brings about an interesting scenario however if we assume that Chelsea and Villa both win in their final game of the season. That would give both teams 69 points but a significantly poorer goal difference from that which Arsenal have. A draw for Arsenal in either of their remaining games would still keep Arsenal above both Chelsea and Villa and secure a Champions League place no matter what the other results are.
Where all this speculation leads however is to one particular point. Of course. both teams will be going for a win on Sunday, but let us imagine that the game is heading for a draw with ten minutes to go. I would suspect that both clubs would accept that draw rather than go full-on for a win.
Here’s the table as it stands today… the final column shows the maximum number of points they could get if winning the final match/es.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Max | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 36 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 83 | 37 | 46 | 83 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 66 | 33 | 33 | 68 | 74 |
| 3 | Newcastle Un | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 68 | 45 | 23 | 66 | 72 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 66 | 69 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 66 | 69 |
| 6 | Manchester City | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 65 | 71 |
| 7 | Nottingham Fo | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 62 | 68 |
