The ref who sees 7% more fouls in one competition, but waves 65% more cards.
By Tony Attwood
Aston Villa are currently making a huge fuss about referees – or rather about one referee who seemingly made a mistake (at least that is what they say). The Telegraph has covered it saying, ” Their defeat at Manchester United hinged on a goal that was incorrectly ruled out by referee Thomas Bramall, possibly at a cost of £100m.
Now that is a neat story for the Telegraph to run, as the implication within it is very clear: the referee made one mistake.
And that story as a sub-text which is that this is a one-off, a mistake that has implications, but still one mistake and just as players are likely to make mistakes (and of course do make mistakes), so referees can make mistakes.
In this case, the League, PGMOL and the FA will undoubtedly all shrug it off, and the story will fade with a vague memory being left behind that Villa made a lot of fuss, and all things considered, it was, after all, just one mistake.
But we should be clear that this is a completely different story from that being propagated on Untold Arsenal. For by focusing on just ONE mistake the media is suggesting that errors by referees are rare. Which is a completely different issue from that highlighted regularly by Untold Arsenal, which is that the results of matches are as much influenced by which referee you get, as by how the teams play because different referees behave in different ways.
I’ve been through a lot of statistics before to prove this point, and I am not going to repeat those. But here are some new stats. You might want to make sure you are seated before reading on.
In our first example, we look at Michael Oliver and the number of fouls and penalties he gives, plus the number of yellow cards he shows in different types of games.
| Competition | Fouls pg | Pen pg | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 23.15 | 0.12 | 4.35 |
| Champions League | 21.25 | 0.25 | 4.63 |
| European Championship | 22.75 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
What you can see is that the foul level is much the same for him in the Premier League, Champions League and European Championship matches. And yet he gives four times as many penalties in European Championship games as he does in Premier League games! However, reversing the issue, he gives almost three times as many yellow cards in Premier League games as he gives in European Championship games.
There is absolutely no way that these figures make any sense. It is as if a different personality is inhabiting Mr Oliver’s brain depending on what type of match it is. How can Premier League games have three times as many yellow cards handed out as in European games, when the level of fouls is pretty much the same?
Let’s try Anthony Taylor – again a “top” referee overseeing matches in the Premier League and in the Champions League. And here we see that Taylor sees almost the same number of fouls in Premier League matches and Champions League matches, but is 65% more likely to issue a yellow card in Champions League games than in Premier League games.
| League | Fouls pg | YelOWS pg |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 21.26 | 2.87 |
| Champions League | 22.75 | 4.75 |
And let me stress the blindingly obvious. Games in Europe are meant to be played under the same rules as games in the Premier League.
Now of course it can be argued that these European players are a bunch of hearty roughs who deserve lots of yellow cards. But if that were so, why are we not seeing them committing many more fouls? In the Taylor case, he sees only 7% more fouls in Champions League games but hands out 65% more cards.
This almost looks to me like a case of showing off. As if he is saying, “I’m from the Premier League and I know how to wave a card.” (And yes he does).
The trouble of course goes deeper than this. Robert Jones, a regular PL ref who oversaw 22 games this past season sees on average 24.82 fouls per game in the PL. Simon Hooper oversaw 24 games and he saw 19.96 fouls per game across the season. That might not sound much but it is a difference of almost a quarter.
Now that wouldn’t matter at all if each club only saw each referee a maximum of twice so the referees and their foibles were spread equally across the league, but they are not. As we know the same referee can see the same team over and over and over again.
Yellow and red cards can be a particular problem, as Arsenal most certainly found this season. Thomas Bramall handed out 0.36 red cards per game. Which might not sound many but when compared with Jarred Gillett who didn’t hand out any that seems a huge number.
In short, get the wrong referee and players can be in trouble. But worse than that. Get the wrong referee over and over and over again and you can see your yellow and red numbers rise.
Which starts to explain how Arsenal can end up 18th in the yellow card table with 64 yellows, but top of the red card league with six. Or try this, Leicester were fourth in the yellow card table with 87 (that’s over a third more than Arsenal) but bottom of the red card table with … none. Not one.
Or compare with Chelsea. 99 yellow cards this season (54% more than Arsenal) but only two reds.
And explanation, have we none.
As you say it is utterly amazing the difference statistically between different competitions and the same referees.
It is almost as though we have people with split personalities officiating.
The media of course say that there are really only a few mistakes – the problem is that certain teams are more affected than others.
The game is becoming more and more unwatchable.
Bad referee and VAR decisions undoubtedly cost Arsenal the Premier League title this year. They account for more than the 10 points gap between first and second place.
In particular, in our home game with Liverpool we were denied a winning goal by Anthony Taylor’s imaginary “foul” in the build-up – he only bothered to call it after Arsenal scored. – so that incident alone accounts for 3 of the 10 points. At Anfield, the referee, – Anthony Taylor again, helped secure a draw for Liverpool by sending Merino off, partly, no doubt, as revenge for him scoring our second goal. Then factor in the contrived red cards which cost us the points between winning and drawing (except it didn’t work at Wolves) the fact that opponents were allowed to foul our players with relative impunity, so that we only got 2 penalties, compared to Liverpool’s 9 or 10. and the general favouritism shown to allowVan Dijk and Konate to get away with fouls, inlcuding in penalty area and stopping clear scoring opportunities.
Taking our own multiple injuries into account, it is clear that this season’s performance in achieving second place has been magnificent.