By Tony Attwood
There was a story circulating just recently that noted that “Newcastle’s Alexander Isak [has been] offered £600,000-a-week tax-free deal by Al-Hilal”. The suggestion was that the Newcastle striker was interested in the possible transfer.
What got less of a mention was that Al-Hilal is not a commercially driven club, as are clubs in the Premier League – seeking to make a profit (even if they don’t always do so.) Rather, they are owned by Saudi’s Private Investment Fund. So in any real sense the money they have available is endless until the oil runs out or all transport goes electric.
Last season Al-Hilal (it means “The Crescent Moon”) came second in the league, playing 34, and scoring 95 goals, the most in the league, with a goal difference of +54.
This shows that the problem in Saudi Arabia with its football league is not the goal-scoring and thus presumably not the excitement; it is the crowds. The average attendance for Al-Hilal was 21.824 which sounds possibly ok except that the lowest average attendance in that league was 1,671 achieved by Al-Hazem SC in a stadium that holds 8,000.
Indeed, it is not often pointed out that 13 of the 18 clubs in the league have an average attendance of under 10,000 – and ths is the league that is trying to attract top footballing talent from around Europe. It seems they can do it with the money, but the spectators just don’t want to know. (Mind you I probably wouldn’t in that heat).
But it might also be because of the dominance of Al-Hilal (average attendance 21.824) who have won 19 league titles, and most of the cups as well.
So Alexander Isak of Newcastle United was offered £600,000-a-week tax-free deal by Al-Hilal, who reached the Club World Cup quarter-finals, losing to Fluminense. That salary works out at about £31m a year (tax-free of course).
Obviously, Newcastle don’t want to sell him, and there would be a major amount of angst and annoyance in Newcastle if they did. The player would be made for life after one season in Saudi Arabia, but his reputation would be seriously tarnished, and it is doubtful if any Premier League club would take a risk on him in a subsequent season after such a transfer. It would be a career-ending move. Isak is said to be valued at about £120m in the English market.
Which then made me wonder about the valuation of Arsenal’s current squad. Top of the list of course is Saka, who is said to be worth about £130m. And we should not forget he is just 23 – so has got a lot left to give.
Second in the value table for Arsenal is Declan Rice, who is quoted at around £100m – which is around the price Arsenal paid for him. Martin Ødegaard is third in the table at around £75m which is not bad when one remembers that Arsenal paid less than half that price and we have had four years worth of performances out of him already.
Next up in the value table is William Saliba, whose value is increased by the fact that he is still only 24. He is said to be worth around £70m on the transfer market.
Putting all this and other financial data together, Arsenal are generally reported to be the second most valuable team in the Premier League with a value of £1.14 billion. This shows a growth in value of over14% in the last year – the third highest in the league.
However, most remarkable in the sense of change in market value of clubs is that of Sunderland, whose perhaps unexpected promotion seems to have added something like 150% to their value from one year ago when they were preparing for another season in the Championship. But at £77m they are still the least valuable team in the League according to Transfermarkt.
Manchester City are considered the most valuable team in the League, but only just – the valuation is only fractionally above Arsenal’s in second place. Arsenal’s valuation is 55% higher than Tottenham’s, who are rated the fifth most valuable team (which makes their league position last season a bit of a shame).
Chelsea are third, their value having slipped by 6% in the last year as it seems there is a lack of faith in their “buy everyone, sell most of them” model – even though they got away with selling their women’s team to another company owned by the same people.
Other interesting snippets are that Tottenham are now valued more highly than Manchester United, and Bournemouth, with their tiny ground, are valued more highly than Nottingham Forest.
The biggest risers in teams of value are thought to be Leeds United following their promotion, while the worst decliners in value are Brentford down 12.1%. The full table of data is here.
Lets look at how Arsenal and the rest of the top six have used corrupt rules to keep themselves at the top or how they looked to create their own Europeen super league.
So, you have a go at the Saudi league for having a serial winner yet the EPL is a closed shop as far as contenders go. How many different teams have won the league in the last 20 years? You could argue that the EPL has become boring. It becomes less competitive each year as the greedy 6 cherry pick the best players and the rest feed off scraps. Take your beloved Declan Rice for example. A fine player who west ham adored but couldn’t provide the riches offered by arsenal. Al-hilal are doing no different.
I don’t think I have ever suggested that the Premier League is anything other than money driven – I was trying (obviously not very well)) to make the point that bad as the PL is in this regard, the Saudi league is on another planet.
Valle if you would care to write such an article and send it to Tony@schools.co.uk I will publish it.
A number of top players, including Messi, Modric, Dembele, Son, Busquetes, Morata have my admiration for turning down the Saudi riches on offer.
I’d also like to hear more about this from Valle, if indeed such info does in fact exist.
Without commenting on the approach taken by PIF in bankrolling the Saudi league, it seems probable that the strategic vision to develop their domestic league is only a short-term step towards their real long term goals: regular participation in the European Champions league and the FIFA club world cup.
FWC, which is likely to get bigger in the coming years, is already open to Saudi teams. In time, I anticipate they will use significant influence to get access to the ECL as well. The ECL with its new league format is only going to get bigger and will eventually turn into a European Super league by stealth… If they succeed in getting access to the ECL, then Al-Hilal home matches will start selling out methinks.
All that investment only seems to make sense if it leads to something bigger than a ‘barely viable’ domestic league. If this scenario plays out, then I would expect the flow of top talent to continue/increase to SA. Anyway, just some thoughts …
Also, Aron Ramsey is understood to have turned down a Saudi offer.