Is there a regional bias over the way referees hand out cards?

 

• Details of the current and recent series are on the home page
• Six seasons of fouls and cards…. and possible referee bias

By Mike Fowler

So, in the previous article, we saw an apparent bias against Arsenal, where even in the season where they committed the fewest fouls they still picked up the second-highest number of red cards.

But I also looked to see if there was an evident regional bias in how clubs were treated.  So, given the traditional ‘Big 6’ includes three London teams (Arsenal Chelsea and the team from Middlesex) and three from the northwest (Liverpool and the two Manchester clubs) I thought I’d look at them as a group.  I discovered two distinct things.

TRADITIONAL ‘BIG SIX’		Fouls	Yellows	Red	FPY	FPR
1	Tottenham	2,543	435	14	5.8	182
2	Chelsea	2,508	453	13	5.5	193
3	Manchester United	2,501	455	9	5.5	278
4	Liverpool	2,390	315	11	7.6	217
5	Arsenal	2,299	371	22	6.2	105
6	Manchester City	1,957	301	12	6.5	163
	Average	2,366	388	13.5	6.2	189.5
	Average for:	Fouls	Yellows	Reds	FPY	FPR
	3 London Big 6	2,450	420	16	5.9	160
	3 NW Big 6	2,283	357	11	6.4	219
	Average ‘Big 5’	2,380	392	11.8	6.1	207
	Arsenal	2,299	371	22	6.2	105

 

One thing that stood out was that the NW clubs could, on average, commit 219 fouls before receiving a red card whilst the London clubs could only commit an average of 160. So NW clubs are allowed to commit 53% more fouls before a red is brandished.

Ah, but perhaps the London teams are dirtier?  Well, on average, the three London clubs did commit (according to refs) more fouls and do get more yellow cards too.  In fact, they commit 7% more fouls, got 16% more yellow cards and, as we have seen, got 53% more reds.  Strange!

The second thing that stood out, though, which could actually account for the regional bias, is that when we look beyond the regional bias and just look at the Big 6 without that, we find that Arsenal committed the second fewest number of fouls over the six seasons (2,299), only Man City commit fewer (1,957).  Tottenham, Chelsea and Man U all committed over 2,500 and Liverpool 2,390.  So how did that affect things?

Interestingly, when we compare Arsenal to the other ‘Big 5’, we find that Arsenal committed 2,299 fouls whilst the average for the other five was higher at 2,380.  Those five committed 3.5% more fouls than Arsenal and, accordingly, received slightly more yellow cards (5.7%).  But, and it’s a big BUT, despite committing fewer fouls, Arsenal received almost twice as many red cards!  Despite committing, on average, more fouls than Arsenal, and receiving more yellow cards than Arsenal, the other five received an average of 11.8 red cards compared to the 22 Arsenal received.

If you want to make even more stark comparisons, Liverpool committed 2,390 fouls for 11 red cards, and Man U committed 2,502 fouls for just 9 red cards.  What this means is Man U are allowed to commit 278 fouls before being shown a red; Liverpool 217; whilst Arsenal can commit just 105 fouls.  It does look like there is a regional bias against the ‘Big’ London clubs, but what seems most obvious is that whilst the NW clubs benefit in that, the real bias is most obviously against just one club.

So, going back to the overall comparison between the 13 clubs that were present for the whole six seasons we have examined.  On average, the other 12 clubs committed 184 fouls per red; the other ‘Big 5’ committed 207 per red; the NW Big 3’ committed 219 per red.  Whilst Arsenal, one of the three teams that committed the fewest fouls in the Premier League, are shown a red for every 105 fouls.

The second most harshly treated club for red cards is Wolverhampton, yet even they can commit 154 fouls per red, which is roughly 50% more than Arsenal…and Wolves are the team which committed the most fouls over the six seasons at 2,611.

In conclusion, supporters of clubs outside the ‘Big 6’ often argue that referees cut those six more slack than the rest and this is actually borne out by the numbers.  As a group, the ‘Big 6’ do get fewer yellows and fewer reds and are allowed to commit more fouls before doing so.  But the real fact is, it’s actually only five of the ‘Big 6’ because, according to the data, Arsenal are treated more harshly than ALL other teams in the league…or were over the last six seasons.  Let’s see how this season pans out.  It may change….I wouldn’t advise holding your breath, though.