How will Arsenal do this season and have the club spent enough?

 

 

Tony Attwood

It’s understandable that 10 per cent of Arsenal fans are more pessimistic heading into this season than last. Three successive second-place finishes can be draining,

That was a comment made in a recent newspaper article on the New York Times website and it is interesting that it, like most commentaries on Arsenal, did not take note of the fact that we have been here berfore with three second place finishes in the league.  Nor indeed the question of what happened after.

Likewise they have not noted how often this three runners up spots in a row has happened to other clubs.   And that is not because there are any prizes for coming second, but because coming second three times running is a measure of consistency.

In fact, Liverpool and Manchester United have come second more often than Arsenal. Liverpool have come second in the top division 15 times and Manchester United second 20 times, compared to Aresnal’s 12 times.  And yes, I know there are no prizes for this, but even so, it is worth wondering why there is such a focus on Arsenal’s three runners-up spots when the response to other clubs doing the same was quite different.

To take just one example, looking back to see what happened last time Arsenal came runners’ up three times running we can see this…

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
2 Arsenal 1999 38 22 12 4 59 17 42 78
2 Arsenal 2000 38 22 7 9 73 43 30 73
2 Arsenal 2001 38 20 10 8 63 38 25 70
1 Arsenal 2002 38 26 9 3 79 36 43 87

 

The fact is that all clubs have rich histories and all sorts of stories can be invented when one just picks and chooses the bits that fit a pre-arranged story.

What is of course most interesting for Arsenal as we approach the new season is the amount of money that has been spent on new players across the team – an amount far in excess of what most of us expected, and an amount that might well cause a little bit of concern when it comes to balancing the books in terms of financla fair play in the next accounting round.

But that story is presumably being held for the future. and for the moment, the transfer stories continue – and if past seasons are anything to go by, will continue up to and possibly beyond transfer deadline day – after which the financial fair play worries emerge once again.

Taking the details from Transfer Markt, we see

 

Season Transfer outgoings Transfer sums received Difference
2025/6 €224.20m €8.00m €216m
2024/5 €108.90m €83.79m €25m
2023/24 €235.10m €69.20m €186m
2022/23 €186.40m €23.80m €157m
2021/22 €167.40m €31.40m €136m
2020/21 €86.00m €19.15m €67m

 

So the total difference, which is to say the total amount more that Arsenal have spent on transfers than they have received over this period, is €787m.  Now to me that looks like being quite a lot.  Especially if one says “over three quarters of a billion euros”.

Arsenal, like most clubs has been making losses for most years, whereas in the regime before the current ownership, Arsenal made a profit most years.   Swiss Ramble recknons that the net debt at the end of the last financial year was 275 million euros.

Which then raises the question, how can that debt ever be paid back?   Obviously, it can be paid off by the owners if they have that much to spare – although that of course, would leave them still needing to balance the books under FFP regulations, which might be a bit more difficult next season.  

But there is still the question of what the owners are doing.   I mean, it is very nice for us as supporters to see Arsenal having come second three seasons running as opposed to 8th, 8th and 5th in the previous three seasons, and we all know that for clubs at or near the top, this type of progress does indeed cost a fortune.

Yet I wonder where the profits finally come from.  Obviously, seat prices can be put up more and more, and more and more money can be charged to sponsors if the club does win the league again, but even so, losing over three-quarters of a billion euros on transfers in the past six years is quite a lot of money to recover.  Especially as we all know that having won the league once, the club needs to spend more to do it again.

While it is true we can probably reduce the notion of the “big seven” that was emerging a year or so ago, by knocking out certain clubs that have slipped down the league, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea all look like they might keep on spending.   And while Chelsea’s model of buy and sell doesn’t really seem to be focused on anything logical, the other two clubs seem to have plans.

Which raises the issue – we are still waiting for the ruling on the Manchester City 115 charges case.  Whatever the outcome of that, it could have a huge impact on what happens to the Premier League thereafter.  Maybe there is a clue in that case.

One Reply to “How will Arsenal do this season and have the club spent enough?”

  1. So what this means is that Liverpool and Man U are bigger “bottlers” than Arsenal…….you don’t hear that being said very often!

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