Burnley v Arsenal: the opposition, the team and the result

 

 

By Tony Attwood

• Why do Arsenal always do so badly away from home under this referee?
• Burnley v Arsenal. Cue talk about games coming thick and fast

In 1976 Burnley were relegated from the Football League Division 1.  Then, years later, they were in the fourth division.   By 2015 they were back in the top division – (by then renamed the Premier League) but were relegated later that year, and indeed have been relegated twice more from the Prem to the Champs. Their last promotion was in 2024/25, with them having come second in the Championship.

Their ground’s capacity is  21,994, which might seem small but actually is massive when compared with the Vitality Stadium, home to AFC Bournemouth, which has a capacity of just 11,307.  As a child, I lived in Dorset for a while and was taken to see 3rd division matches there by my dad, and the crowds I recall were around 11,000 then.

But of course, as we have learned over the years, size doesn’t mean everything.  The biggest stadium is Very Old Trafford (75600) followed by the offensively named London Stadium, paid for by taxpayers and given to Wham (62,500) and then the unsponsored Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, now claiming to be bigger than Wham’s ground at 62,850.

Wham’s ground was paid for by the UK taxpayer and was initially known as the London Stadium.  We have asked for it to be renamed the Taxpayers’ Stadium since we paid for it, but we’ve had no success on that.   But of course, size doesn’t mean everything or quite often anything, as the endless moaning of the WHAM supporters shows.  They get a stadium for nothing, and still then moan.   

Anyway, back to Burnley, who consistently enjoy bouncing up and down through the leagues.  In 2022 they were relegated, in 2023 promoted, in 2024 relegated, and in 2025 promoted with an undefeated streak from 7 November onward.  And for the moment, it looks like they might hold on.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	16	3	13	22
16	Burnley	9	3	1	5	12	17	-5	10
17	Fulham	9	2	2	5	9	14	-5	8
18	Nottingham Forest	9	1	2	6	5	17	-12	5
19	West Ham United	9	1	1	7	7	20	-13	4
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	9	0	2	7	7	19	-12	2

 

Although of course, it is possible that the ability of any of Fulham, Forest, Wham, and Wolverhampton to pick up points could influence the way things go in the end.

Meanwhile, in the New York Times Opta’s prediction model now gives Arsenal over a two-thirds chance of winning the League this season. I would be inclined to go even higher but that of course, would have put the mockers on everything It’s not that they are playing brilliantly, but more that their performances have demonstrated a far greater ability to cope with the inevitable fouls that came their way, without always being noted by the referee.  The media has now started to talk of Arsenal’s “maturity” (which is rather amusing as Arsenal have just broken the record for the youngest ever player), resilience, and focus.   Some say Arsenal have these factors in greater abundance than any other team.  But then these journalists…. always saying things for effect…

But Turf Morr is a test, and referees there seem to react on occasion as if they are still witnessing a fourth division match rather than one in the Premier League.   And that doesn’t help, given that all the media have now jumped on the bandwagon by predicting every Arsenal match as either a 1-0 or 2-0 victory.

SportsMole do go for the 2-0 to Arsenal and give us the team of

Raya;

Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori;

Eze, Zubimendi, Rice;

Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard.

ESPN go with

Raya;

Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;

Rice, Eze, Zubimendi, 

Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard.

which is of course, slightly modified, but really not that much.

OneFootball makes the point that “Burnley’s confidence is gradually rebuilding after a challenging start to their Premier League campaign. Their recent 3-2 victory over Wolves showcased the attacking verve Parker has tried to instil, although defensive discipline remains a work in progress.  (Wolverhampton are bottom of the league with no wins, two draws and a goal scoring total for which only Forest have managed fewer.) 

Yahoo Sport  offer us

Raya;

Timber, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori; 

Eze, Zubimendi, Rice;

Saka, Gyokeres, Trossard

and really, as you can see, we are now going round and round the same group of players.   Indeed, if you want to try another one, Yahoo Sports goes the same way and their details are here.

Of course, there really is a problem when everyone predicts pretty much the same team to win by the same score, because anything less than that will feel like a failure.  But “same as last week” is the way most football journalists work, which significantly reduces their workload while keeping the editor happy.

We know no one can catch us this weekend, but it is nonetheless going to be worth looking at a few other results, assuming Arsenal does make it over the line, including… Manchester City v Bournemouth, Tottenham v Chelsea, and Sunderland v Everton on Monday.  Bournemouth could lose, Tottenham could draw and Sunderland might win.   And so, if Arsenal win, it leaves us with a table of Arsenal on 25 points, Manchester City and Sunderland on 19, and Tottenham on 18.   As you may know I normally get these things wrong, but I thought I’d throw that in, in case you wanted a laugh after the match.