Chelsea v Arsenal in the league cup semis tomorrow

 

 

By Tony Attwood

Well, we’ve been debating the speed at which managers come and go and how changing managers a lot doesn’t really seem to do much good, and lo and behold the next day we find Real Madrid have got rid of Xabi Alonso after seven months and replaced by Álvaro Arbeloa.  Ah well.  I would say I suppose they know what they are doing, but actually I don’t think so.    The media builds up pressure, the supporters adopt it and the manager thinks, “blow this for a lark” and offers to leave quietly for a suitable pay off.    Then he gets another job.  So it goes.

And so we come to Chelsa.   In the last three years and three months, they have had seven managers.  OK to be fair Saltor only oversaw one game as did McFarlane, so maybe we should not include them and say five managers in three and a quarter years.  And Rosenor was only appointed last week, so it is a bit tough to include him, but even so, they do seem to get through managers.

The best one was Enzo Maresca who lasted 549 matches and won the Conference League and the Club World Cup (each of which of course, is a trophy but neither of which is that BIG a trophy.  Overall, he had a 59.78% win rate.

To give comparison, Mikel Arteta has a win rate of 60.19%, which is not bad seeing the state the club was in when he came along.  He’s overseen 319 games and won the FA Cup, which I’d rate above the Conference League and the rather small CWC, but of course, everyone makes up their own evaluations and I am sure Chelsea fans are jolly happy with their pots.

Anyway, Chelsa’s current man has been in post since 8 January this year, and won his game in charge.  Mind you that was a 1-5 away win against Charlton.  They are currently eighth in the league…

 

In terms of this match Cheslea are at home so we can compare the home and away results on that basis.

Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts
13 Chelsea homw 10 4 3 3 15 11 4 15
1 Arsenal away 10 6 2 2 14 9 5 20

 

So although Chelsea have scored more league goals at home than Arsenal have away, Arsenal away from home have the better defence and overall the better performance in terms of points gained.

But in games such as this, much depends on how willing or able managers are to rotate the squad, taking it that the League Cup is probably the fourth in the list of priorities.

However, Chelsea have some restrictions, in that the current injury table shows them with eight men out, although three are being assessed.   My overall suspicion is that players being assessed might not be risked for the least important of the competitions for Chelsea this season. They are currently eighth in the league and four points behind Liverpool in fourth place.  And as things stand, England only have four places in the League next season – unless an English team wins the competition.

Mind you, the rules show that there are two ways of England getting five Champions League teams next season, as the winners of the Champions League and the Uefa League each get a place if they don’t otherwise qualify.   And the two associations with the best coefficients in the 2025/6 season will each get a place.   Unless they have already qualified as winners of the competition this season, in which case the extra place is lost. 

I know that sounds like a load of gobbledegook, but that’s because that is what it is.   But we must let these Uefa administrators have their fun dreaming these rules up.

So what it all comes down to is that most of all, Chelsea want to overtake Liverpool in the league – and the gap between them is currently just four points.

And for Chelsea thir list of injuries is the issue, and I can’t see Chelsea risking players who could be invaluable in getting them up the league and into a Champs League spot, being risked for a League Cup match – even if it is a semi.

Arsenal’s injury list is smaller.  Calafiori is getting closer but I think a return for this game is unlikely.  If he is back, it will be on the bench.   Cristhian Mosquera doesn’t seem to be ready yet either, as is also the case for Piero Hincapie Reyna.   Any of them could suddenly turn up, but I rather doubt it.  Max Dowman is still out for some time.

But as we have already seen, we have a squad to be reckoned with and in the game against Palace in this competition, we lined up with

Kepa,

Calafiri, Saliba, Timber, Lewis-Skelly

Norgaard Eze Madueke

Merino Jesus Martinelli

I would guess not for Martinelli, but otherwise….

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