Arsenal v Everton: the referee, fouls and the king of the yellow cards

 

 

• Arsenal v Everton. Saturday at 5.30. Everton’s problems explored.
• Are English clubs really exhausted before they take on Europe?

The referee for this game is Andy Madley.  Here are his details for this season in comparison with other referees and linespeople.

 

Referee	GamES	Fouls pg	Fouls/Tackles	Pen pg	Yel pg
Anthony Taylor	22	20.18	0.59	0.18	3.82
Michael Oliver	21	22.38	0.63	0.05	2.76
Peter Bankes	21	22.76	0.66	0.29	3.95
Stuart Attwell	18	21.28	0.64	0.33	4.56
Craig Pawson	17	21.35	0.66	0.29	2.47
Samuel Barrott	17	19.59	0.59	0.35	3.65
Andy Madley	15	22.73	0.73	0.33	3.60
Variations		16%	24%	700%	184%

 

Looking at this table, we might think that a variation of 16% in the number of fouls seen by referees is perfectly reasonable – it is a fast-moving game with instant decisions.    And indeed, a variation of 24% in the number of fouls per tackle might seem just about reasonable for the same reason.

But looking elsewhere at the numbers, this doesn’t seem to be the case, for the referee who sees the most penalties sees 700% more than the referees who see the fewest.  And the referee who hands out the most yellow cards hands out 184% more than the referee who hands out the fewest.   And here we are only looking at referees who have overseen 15 or more Premier League games a season.  So we are not including referees who are new to this level of the game.  These are the top football referees in the country – and their numbers vary widely.

And in fact, it is fair to say that those numbers show such a level of variation that they are utterly terrifying in terms of having referees who are all following the same rules and regulations in the same way.   In short, what happens in each match depends on which referee you get, as much as which teams are playing each other.

So what sort of results do these ludicrously varied referees come up with?

Home wins as a percentage of league games overseen by referees can range from 71.4% for Brookes down to 11.8% for Gillet.   Away wins vary from 58.% for Gillett down to 11.8% to Brammall.   Drawn matches vary from 41.2% of the games overseen for Barrott and Brammall, down to 9.5% for Bankes.

Put another way, if you want to be good at predicting results, probably the safest way to do this is to see which referee is in charge of each.  Then look at his previous results and expect more of the same.   Except it most certainly should not be like this.

Here are the referee figures sfor this season.  It might be a good idea to sit down before taking this in…

 

Referee	Games	HomeWin%	AwayWin%	Draw%
Peter Bankes	21	71.4	19.0	9.5
Jarred Gillett	17	11.8	58.8	29.4
Samuel Barrott	17	35.3	23.5	41.2
Thomas Bramall	17	47.1	11.8	41.2
Andy Madley	15	26.7	46.7	26.7

 

Of course, the way in which the referee looks at the game, and the actions that the players take once they know who the referee is, will affect the way the players play the game, and the whole process loops around itself, with each aspect affecting the other.

So it is worth considering how each team plays the game and how each team watches the referee.  Here we are of course primarily comparing Arsenal and Everton, but I have included a few other statistics for comparison.

This final table is perhaps the most intriguing table of all, and yet it is one that journalists and broadcasters simply will not touch.  Quite why they won’t mention it is of course, a matter for debate.  Is it because they truly believe that referees don’t affect matches?   Or is it because they don’t want the crowd to believe that referees each have their own favoured way of running a game? – I leave you to decide.

Basically, the table takes the teams that have the most or least goals, shots, yellow cards, red cards and possession in the Premier League this season, and then compares them on all the statistics.  Then, in the last row, we look at the difference in percentage terms between the club with the most and the club with the least.

Thu,s we can see that Arsenal have scored the most goals, and have 84% more goals than the club on our table with the fewest goals – Burnley.   Then we look at the variation in shots, which, of course, is similar to the variation in goals.

Perhaps more suprriisng is the variation in yellow cards   Tottenham have gained 85% more yellows than Arsenal this season, thus allowing Tottenham supporters, should they wish to, to blame the refereese for all their troubles,   The issue of red cards is harder to consider because of the lowest number but possession is interesting since the difference between the club with the most and the club with the least is the lowest percetnage difference of these measures.

And there is another interesting factor.  Liverpool clearly work hard to achieve and maintain possession, gaining over 60% on average in a match.   Yet that doesn’t take them to the top of the league.   True, more possession is obviously good, but it could be argued here that putting extra effort into keeping possession doesn’t really affect results that much.  As common sense predicts, everything does come back to scoring goals.

 

*Variance is the difference between the highest and lowest figure in each column. when comparing the numberes in that column.  Thus Arsenal have 84% more goals than Burnley  (59 to 32).   Tottenham have 85% more yellow cards than Arsenal.