Is it possible that Arsenal could retain the title next season?

The problem with the World Cup, of course, is the lunatic imbalance of the countries taking part.  Wales is one of the smallest participants with a population of just over 3 million, although Iceland seems to be the smallest ever to have qualified with a population of around one third of a million.  

I guess this sort of thing is excusable since it is the way the FA Cup runs, starting with its extra preliminary round in August. The FA Cup usually has 14 rounds, including the final (which of course is not drawn), and that is the tradition on which a lot of cups are based. 

And indeed this is how it has been since the earliest days, but it does seem a bit weird having competitions in which some of the sides are so much weaker than others.   And indeed it made me wonder, as a person who has never played darts except on Boxing Day against other members of the family (and been knocked out immediately), whether it is really worth it.    I mean, we pretty much know that the vast majority of non-league clubs will have gone out by the 3rd round when Arsenal turn up.    But I suppose they enter, just in case they get to the big payday.  

But turning to the failures of Premier League clubs, eight or nine (opinions differ) managers were sacked last season; either way that is almost half.  All told, 16 went during the course of the season.  Which shows two things: most of the time sacking the manager doesn’t work, and some clubs are habitual manager changers.

Of course, these numbers are a bit unfair since included in this list is Bruno Saltor, who lasted one match at Tottenham as caretaker manager.   But I thought I’d include him in case he felt left out.  Arteta is up to 352 games as manager and thankfully has shown no signs of leaving.

I guess that the problem for managers is that, whereas for most businesses and companies the measurement of success is how much profit the company is making (which allows lots of companies in a similar field all to be a success at the same time), in football there can only be one success in each competition, which means everyone else is a failure.

And indeed clearly some managers are much more successful than others.  And although we’ve looked at Arteta’s run with Arsenal before, it is worth noting again: 8th, 8th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st.   Whichever way you look at it, that is progress, and the notion that he should be moved on is of course not heard.  Why would it be?

But the notion of progress is not always clear.   Consider Tottenham, for example, in this decade.  They have finished 6th, 7th, 4th, 8th, 5th, 17th, 17th.  Even if we build in the excuse of having moved grounds and not having the money to spend on new players, that still looks pretty atrocious.  Yet the crowds cheered and cheered at the last match!

I guess it shows that part of the problem with measuring success and considering if a club should keep or lose its current manager is that results, like fans, can be so erratic.    For example, in the past four seasons Manchester United have come 3rd, 8th, 15th and 3rd.  How does one decide if that is real progress or just chance?

Chelsea this decade have been utterly wonky as well, ending up 4th, 3rd, 12th, 6th, 4th, 10th.  While this decade Liverpool fans might be dissatisfied despite a set of finishes leaving them 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 3rd,1st and 5th, since that does include two titles, but it doesn’t really show a dominance of the league of the type that their historic arrogance demands.

Of course, there are many explanations: injuries, managerial changes, pure chance, the success of others, and which referees the club gets can all have an impact.  And perhaps that is why only three clubs have retained the title.  Of course ManC found a new way to do it with a level of investment that would raise eyebrows if anyone had any eyebrows left to raise, but for more normal clubs it is tough going – and impossible to continue without funding from the world’s oil supplies.