When opinion is formed without evidence it can get screamingly side-splittingly funny

By Tony Attwood

On Thursday 26 November the sports editor of the Guardian ordered his staff out of the pub and told them to write articles under the heading

“Petr Cech has been a boon, Mesut Özil has found his groove and, from his semi-permanent residence in the red zone, Alexis Sánchez has been freakishly remorseless. When things have clicked for Arsenal, as they did, for example, in the 3-0 destruction of Manchester United, they look like champions-in-waiting. But those lunges towards the self-destruct button continue to undermine them, and they have not been confined to the Champions League.”

So far, so commonplace.   But then

“It is possible to paint Arsenal themselves as the biggest obstacle to a title triumph and that takes in their tendency to carry seven or eight injuries. Any team would struggle to cope with their casualty rates. How Arsène Wenger must pine for a clean bill of health.”

So let’s consider.  “Any team would struggle” and “Arsène Wenger must pine for a clean bill of health”.

This is typical of the current fanatical Arsenal bashing that is going on in the media.  It picks out Arsenal, notes their alleged problems but gives no facts and figures, and no comparison with any other club.  Reading the above you might be excused from thinking that the injury table looked like this

	TEAM	TOTAL INJURIES
1	Arsenal	18
2	Newcastle United	4
3	Liverpool	3
4	Bournemouth	3
5	Manchester City	2
6	Everton	2
7	Manchester United	1
8	West Ham United	1
9	Chelsea et al	0

Whereas in fact it looks like this

	TEAM	TOTAL INJURIES
1	Newcastle United	10
2	Liverpool	9
3	Bournemouth	8
4	Manchester City	7
5	Arsenal	6
6	Everton	6
7	Manchester United	6
8	West Ham United	5
9	Chelsea	4

Our six injured are Arteta, Coquelin, Theo (due back next week), Jack (due back in three weeks), Rosicky, Welbeck.  What they might have said somewhat more accurately and with a glance at a few facts was, “Arsenal have had a tough time with injuries but the fact they are only two points off the lead, competing with clubs such as Leicester who have had an astoundingly low level of injuries thus far, which suggests that some amount of balance might occur if Leicester do get near to a normal level of injuries for teams in the league.”

As with referees’ wayward decisions, injuries don’t all balance out in the end but it seems unlikely that Leicester can continue at this level.

Indeed it is interesting that when the Guardian comes to “examine” (I use the word in its vaguest sense) other clubs they do note some danger signs…

The Tiny Totts: “An injury to Kane remains unthinkable.”

Leicester City: Player who must stay fit: Jamie Vardy.

Man U: Player who must stay fit: “Martial.  In a low-scoring outfit – only 19 thus far – the Frenchman’s pace stretches opposition”

Man C: Player who must stay fit “Silva can run a match with ease, meaning the ball is kept away from City’s creaky rearguard.”

For Arsenal the “Player who must stay fit” is Sánchez who “gives the team their cutting edge and a go-to outlet. A player who makes things happen on his own terms.”

If we look at the league table with the number of injuries in the final column, we can argue something quite different.  Clubs in 2nd, 3rd and 4th place are in much of a muchness vis a vis injuries, but Leicester have been lucky.  Any sudden rise of the injury total table could scupper them.   Indeed staying with the top ten, Southampton and Palace might also be in for a bumpy ride with a few more injuries.  (“Injuries” shows the total number of injured first team players as shown on Physioroom.com at 10am on 28 Nov).

POS	CLUB	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	Injuries
1	Leicester City	13	8	4	1	28	20	8	28	1
2	Manchester United	13	8	3	2	19	9	10	27	6
3	Manchester City	13	8	2	3	27	13	14	26	7
4	Arsenal	13	8	2	3	23	11	12	26	6
5	Tottenham Hotspur	13	6	6	1	24	11	13	24	4
6	West Ham United	13	6	3	4	24	20	4	21	5
7	Everton	13	5	5	3	24	16	8	20	6
8	Southampton	13	5	5	3	19	14	5	20	3
9	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	17	15	2	20	9
10	Crystal Palace	13	6	1	6	14	13	1	19	3

But of course the issue is just how vulnerable a club is to injuries to a certain player and in a certain position.    The trick is not to have just one super-player who turns it on for you, and makes everything happen, but ideally three or four.   Plus not only to have two players who can play in each position, but (because the practicalities of keeping players happy, and the “25” rule) have players who can switch positions.

Thus we come back to the vulnerabilities that the Guardian pointed out, and even a blind man in a dark alley travelling the wrong way can see that Tottenham are vulnerable to an injury to Kane.   But is the same true with Arsenal?

Arsenal does indeed have two players who can in each position, but there are certain key players we would sooner not lose.  Özil,  Alexis, Santi Kaz, Koscielny, all spring to mind.  But the fact is that there are at least four such players (and cases could be made for others such as Monreal and Bellerin) is a bonus, because although there is a chance of losing every player to a hamstring injury, there is a far lesser chance of losing four top players all at once.

And in our case, top players they are.  I’ve quoted the Whoscored.com charts before, and of course they change every week, and here is the current top ten players as they appear before this weekend’s games.

R	Name	Apps	Mins	Goals	Assists	Shots/g	PS%	Rating
1	Riyad Mahrez Leicester	11(1)	952	7	6	3	74.9	8.25
2	Jamie Vardy Leicester	13	1149	13	1	4.2	65.7	7.90
3	Mesut Özil Arsenal	12	1028	1	11	1.3	88.3	7.81
4	Alexis Sánchez Arsenal	12(1)	1047	6	–	4.2	80.5	7.69
5	Dimitri Payet WHU	12	1038	5	3	2	81.2	7.68
6	Virgil van Dijk Soton	9	810	2	–	0.8	84.2	7.67
7	Mousa Dembélé Tottenham	9(1)	704	2	–	0.9	87.7	7.65
8	Ross Barkley Everton	13	1154	5	4	2.8	86.5	7.63
9	Santi Cazorla Arsenal	13	1115	–	3	1.7	90.4	7.57
10	Laurent Koscielny Arsenal	11	990	2	–	0.9	89.4	7.55

On the whoscored figures we have four players in the top ten in the PL at the moment.  Lose any of them and it will be a blow, and of course lose more than one would be a double blow, but that is much more unlikely.   Only Leicester has two players in the top ten everyone else has one or none.  We’re alone with four.

So my case is that because we have a number of players of the highest quality the danger to the team of losing one top, top player, is reduced.

Of course you can see dangers everywhere, for example when you look at the importance of who gives the assists…

Premier League Assist to Goal Scorer – top five