By Bulldog Drummond
So here we are: four points between the clubs, nine points to play for.
Chelsea will end up with between 70 and 76 points, Arsenal will end up between could get 75, Tottenham could get 71. But of course Arsenal and Tottenham can’t both get their maximum number of points because of tonight. Here’s the latest table.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 36 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 94 | 22 | 72 | 89 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 36 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 86 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 36 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 73 | 31 | 42 | 70 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 35 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 66 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 60 | 40 | 20 | 62 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 56 | 1 | 58 |
So obviously whatever happens tonight those positions won’t change but the result will be either
Option 1 – we win…
…and Tottenham can’t make fourth with just two games left. Arsenal and Chelsea in the Champions League.
- 3rd – Chelsea: 70 points
- 4th – Arsenal: 69 points
- 5th – Tottenham: 62 points
Option 2 – it’s a draw.
Tottenham can’t make third but can still make fourth. Arsenal still in fourth, now three behind Chelsea but with a much inferior goal difference.
- 3rd – Chelsea: 70 points
- 4th – Arsenal: 67 points
- 5th – Tottenham: 63 points
Option 3 – Tottenham win.
With two games to go Arsenal and Tottenham could each still overtake Chelsea if there is a Chelsea collapse, otherwise either Arsenal or Tottenham or even conceivably Chelsea will end up fourth.
- 3rd – Chelsea: 70 points
- 4th – Arsenal: 67 points
- 5th – Tottenham: 66 points
If two clubs are equal on points then Chelsea benefit, Tottenham second and Arsenal are going to lose out.
Clearly one of the clubs is going to be very disappointed at the end of the season with going into the Europa League, and of course I desperately want Arsenal to win, but even if we are in the Europa, not the Champions League, there will be some benefits.
First there are some easy matches in the Europa which gives a chance for some of the youngsters to shine. In 2020/1 for example the Europa gave games to Smith Rowe, Saka, Soares, Gabriel, Odegaard etc, and it is easy to forget that at the time they were not regulars in the first team – it was part of their learning and development experience. Of course, there are League cup matches as well, but the more chances there are to give these players a game the better.
Which is not to say I’d soon have us in the Europa rather than the Champions League, but rather to say I’d sooner have the club in the Europa rather than not in Europe at all.
So for me, I see the whole thing as a step by step approach back to the days when we took top four for granted (as we were entitled to since Arsenal’s run in the Champions League under Wenger was only beaten by one team: Real Madrid – no other English team got near it.)
But this means getting away from the notion of scoring 50-something goals per season, as we have in the last couple of years. This takes us back to the early days of the Premier League (1992 to 1996) and was an approach that Arsene Wenger led us away from. So whatever happens tonight and in the last two games of the season, an arrangement of the team that allows and encourages us to score 70 or 80 goals a season as we regularly used to do, would be most welcome.
Sports Mole suggest Tottenham will win 2-1 while Football.London pulls its old trick of running the headline Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction and then utterly failing to give us a prediction. Pesky blighters.
The Evening Standard comes up with a prediction of a 1-1 draw while Squwake goes for a 2-1 Tottenham win, as Sports Mole. Football Predictions likewise goes for the 2-1 victory to Tottenham.
So for the sake of balance if nothing else, I’ll go for Tottenam 1 Arsenal 2.
Here’s a reminder of the last ten league encounters…
| Date | Match | Res | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2017 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | L | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 18 Nov 2017 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 10 Feb 2018 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | L | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 2 Dec 2018 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur | W | 4-2 | Premier League |
| 2 Mar 2019 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | D | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 1 Sep 2019 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 12 Jul 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | L | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 6 Dec 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal | L | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 14 Mar 2021 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur | W | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 26 Sep 2021 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur | W | 3-1 | Premier League |
Four wins to Arsenal, four wins to Tottenham, two draws. We haven’t won at Tottenham in the League since 16 March 2014. The team that day was
Fully agree. CL seems a step far, but then again maybe these youngsters need ambition ?
Squad depth is going to be very important and come november attrition through injuries is the thing that worries me.
But then there is the issue that it is Sp*rs who would be ahead…so in this light, CL is the result to aim for !
However, were it not to happen, so what. We’ll be in Europe anyway, the squad is being re-built and will be able to grow.
I’d take a draw every day of the week, but if the worst happens we just have to win at Newcastle and then beat Everton, it’s still basically in our hands whatever the result this evening.
Just been looking at some pictures of the lads training on Arsenal.com and how cool is it to see all our talented youngsters joining in with the seniors, there’s so much to be positive about where we are currently, I’m really looking forward to next season and seeing how we develop.
Be interesting to see if Mika Bierith makes the bench for any of our next three games. He has made the short list for PL2 player of the year. Came to us from Fulham at the seart of the year and has had a good first season. Likely to go out on loan next year I would think to get more first team playing experience.