Who will win the Premier League?
- If Arsenal go on like this, what will the final table look like?
- Only a handful of teams can win the league: but nothing has changed.
By Bulldog Drummond
You may have seen our disparaging remarks about Super Computers and how every newspaper in London has claimed to have one, or at least have access to one (something that would instantly make the newspaper insolvent, even if it were possible). So no, not only do we not have a supercomputer, what makes us different from the media at large is we don’t even claim to have one.
No, while those perfidious larkabouts in the mass media claim access to billions of pounds worth of processing power, we have an “ordinateur ordinaire”. (Quite why we have chosen to put those words in French is something that will not become clear at this time, although it rather amused us as a translation of a non-super computer.)
So we have plugged the laptop in, paid the electricity bill, and turned it on, programming in (well typing in) the league table as it stands…
Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 28 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 69 |
2 | Manchester City | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 67 | 25 | 42 | 61 |
The opening decisions
We decided first that there was no way we could predict scores for forthcoming games, given that our prediction of results would probably make us a big enough laughing stock, so results and points is all you’ll get…
April Arsenal
DATE | MATCH | Result | Points | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sat, 1 Apr
|
Arsenal
|
Leeds United
|
Arsenal win
|
3
|
Sun, 9 Apr
|
Liverpool
|
Arsenal
|
Draw
|
1
|
Sun, 16 Apr
|
West Ham United
|
Arsenal
|
Arsenal win
|
3
|
Fri, 21 Apr
|
Arsenal
|
Southampton
|
Arsenal win
|
3
|
Wed, 26 Apr
|
Manchester City
|
Arsenal
|
Manchester City win
|
0
|
Sat, 29 Apr
|
Arsenal
|
Chelsea
|
Arsenal win
|
3
|
Total
|
13 points
|
April, Manchester City
Now the first thing to notice is that while Arsenal have six games to play in April, Manchester City have eight, the extra two being games against Bayern Munich in the Champions League. And because last time we looked we found that Bayern Munich are having a bit of a wobble not having already won the league with ten games to go we think it will be Manchester City that goes through.
And buoyed by that result we think they will win all of their league matches in April.
DATE | MATCH | Result | Points | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sat, 1 Apr
|
Manchester City
|
Liverpool
|
Man C win
|
3
|
Sat, 8 Apr
|
Southampton
|
Manchester City
|
Man C win
|
3
|
Tue, 11 Apr
|
Manchester City
|
Bayern Munich
|
Man C win
|
|
Sat, 15 Apr
|
Manchester City
|
Leicester City
|
Man C win
|
3
|
Wed, 19 Apr
|
Bayern Munich
|
Manchester City
|
Draw
|
|
Sat, 22 Apr
|
Manchester City
|
Sheffield United
|
Man C win
|
3
|
Wed, 26 Apr
|
Manchester City
|
Arsenal
|
Man C win
|
3
|
Sun, 30 Apr
|
Fulham
|
Manchester City
|
Man C win
|
3
|
Points
|
18 points
|
As a result, with the two teams playing the same number of league games but Manchester City winning all of theirs while Arsenal draw against Liverpool and lose against Manchester City, Arsenal will still be top but Manchester, will still have a game in hand. And will, we think have a better goal difference – probably around +8 better.
Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | Pts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 34 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 82 |
2 | Manchester City | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 79 |
At this point, in order to get some free publicity some bookies will start paying out on a Manchester City title, and there will be much talk of Arsenal “bottling it” and London clubs not being able to win the league because there is too much soot in the atmosphere and the West End is too distracting for players who are softies.
Now we come to May 2023. Arsenal have four games left. By this time we think Newcastle’s five match wobble of February / March will be long forgotten, Tottenham will have slid down the table and as a result Newcastle will be fighting it out with Manchester United for third place. So we go for a draw in that away game, but tyhink Arsenal will win the rest thus getting 10 more points.
May, 2023 Arsenal
DATE | MATCH | Result | Points | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sun, 7 May
|
Newcastle United
|
Arsenal
|
Draw
|
1
|
Sat, 13 May
|
Arsenal
|
Brighton & Hove Albion
|
Arsenal win
|
3
|
Sat, 20 May
|
Nottingham Forest
|
Arsenal
|
Arsenal win
|
3
|
Sun, 28 May
|
Arsenal
|
Wolverhampton Wand
|
Arsenal win
|
3
|
Total
|
10
|
As for Manchester City they now have two Champions League semi-finals. We see them getting knocked out at that point, and amazingly failing to beat Everton in between as well as drawing with Chelsea in the aftermath of not making the final.
May, 2023 Manchester City
DATE | MATCH | Result | Points | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wed, 3 May
|
Manchester City
|
West Ham United
|
Man City win
|
3
|
Sun, 7 May
|
Manchester City
|
Leeds United
|
Man City win
|
3
|
Tues 9 May
|
Champions League
|
Man C defeat
|
||
Sat, 13 May
|
Everton
|
Manchester City
|
Draw
|
1
|
Wed 16 May
|
Champions League
|
Draw
|
||
Sat, 20 May
|
Manchester City
|
Chelsea
|
Draw
|
1
|
Sun, 28 May
|
Brentford
|
Manchester City
|
Man City win
|
3
|
11
|
All of which means that Manchester City don’t go into the Champions League final and also miss out on the league by two points.
Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 38 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 92 |
2 | Manchester City | 38 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 90 |
The four qualifers for the Champions League are thus Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Newcastle United. We think Liverpool and Brighton will make it into the Europa, based on the recent form of the teams around them, and Tottenham might just make it once again into the mighty Conference. Uefa will immediately tell the club that just as last time, if they don’t want to play all the games that’s ok, and no punishment will be meted out.
I thought the spuds would miss out completely as it is Paratici’s ball and he’s taking it home with him.
To be pedantic – the Sheff Utd game is in the FA Cup and at present there is no rearranged date for the oilmen to play Brighton away. Suspect it could be either 23rd / 24th May. Result might still be the same though..