- Luton 3 Arsenal 4: maybe it is time to say positive things
- Knocking and praising Arsenal at the same time: the new journo psychodrama
By Tony Attwood
The victory over Luton Town inevitably raises the question, how are things going this season…
In fact as soon as we ask that question we find one player is far exceeding last season’s goals per game total, and that is Eddie Nketiah. He was scoring 0.19 goals per game last season – this season he is reaching almost three times that level.
Bukayo Saka is running along at the same level as before, while Martin Odegaard is down by about a quarter from 0.41 goals a game to 0.33 goals a game. But he has of course been disrupted by injury this season.
The biggest declines are indeed for players who have been injured – Gabriel Jesus down from 0.46 goals per game to 0.29, while Martinelli is down from 0.44 goals per game to 0.17…
| Player | 2023/4 Games | 2023/4 Goals | Goals per game 2023/4 | goals per game 2022/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Nketiah | 9 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.19 |
| Bukayo Saka | 14 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| Martin Odegaard | 12 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| Leandro Trossard | 5 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| Gabriel Jesus | 7 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 12 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| Kai Havertz | 9 | 3 | 0.33 | |
| Declan Rice | 15 | 3 | 0.20 |
However, to compensate for the declines (which of course are in both cases injury-related) we have two new scorers appearing on the scene: Havertz and Rice both on three games, the former on a ratio of 0.33 and the latter on 0.20.
And yet the table comparison after 15 games shows the number of goals scored is only three down on this time last season. What we are doing in fact is spreading the goals around a little bit more, and bringing back players that have had a spell out of the game.
Of course being out by injury happens every season (most notably to Gabriel Jesus last season). So the difference between this season and last remains the same as it has been for a number of weeks – a couple of draws instead of wins.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal 2023/4 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 36 |
| 1 | Arsenal 2022/3 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 12 | 24 | 40 |
But in looking at this we might also wonder just how much (if at all) Manchester City has slipped in the league this season compared to last…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manchester City 2023/4 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Manchester City 2022/3 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 26 | 32 |
In fact they are just two points and six goals worse off than they were a year ago.
Our other major challenger this season is thought to be Liverpool so here are their figures… they are the main improvers over last season. They are up nine points and four places compared with this time last season.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Liverpool 2023/4 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 14 | 18 | 31 |
| 6 | Liverpool 2022/3 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 22 |
And to round all this off, not because they are doing well, but because the media always likes to think they are doing well, we can have a good look at Tottenham Hotspur – where we find that they too are moving along in the same way.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur 2023/24 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur 2022/23 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 26 |
But what of Chelsea?
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chelsea 2023/24 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 19 |
| 8 | Chelsea 2022/23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
Now we see something rather strange going on.
There are two ways of organising your team if you want to do well in terms of goalscoring. One is to have in the team a dominant top goal scorer who will knock in large numbers of goals. Another is to have a multiplicity of goalscorers.
The dominant scorer can scare the opposition and will mean that they might try and have two players marking him, which could then mean that other players would find themselves more space. The other is to have multiple scorers – which ensures the team against the loss of top scoring through injury disrupting the season, and makes it harder for the opposition to know who to mark.
Last season Arsenal had four players who scored 10+ goals in the Premier League
| Sqd | Player | Games | Goals | Pens |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Gabriel Martinelli | 34 | 15 | |
| 8 | Martin Odegaard | 37 | 15 | |
| 7 | Bukayo Saka | 37 | 14 | 2 |
| 9 | Gabriel Jesus | 24 | 11 | 1 |
Which inevitably raises the question, how is it going this season… In fact one player is far exceeding last season’s goals per game total and that is Eddie Nketiah. He was scoring 0.19 goals per game last season – this season he is reaching almost three times that level.
Bukayo Saka is running along at the same level as before, while Martin Odegaard is down by about a quarter from 0.41 goals a game to 0.33 goals a game. But he has of course been disrupted by injury this season.
So what is the conclusion? Only Liverpool has made a great leap forward; the others are doing something similar to what they were doing a year ago…
- Arsenal down four points
- Manchester City down two points
- Chelsea down two points
- Tottenham up one point
- Liverpool up nine points
Back in late November I did a ‘next 6 games’ prediction to see where we may be after the West Ham game at the end of the year, My predictions were as follows:
ARSENAL
Wolves H = 3
Luton A = 3
A Villa A = 1
Brighton H = 3
Liverpool A = 0
W Ham H = 3
Total = 13 pts tacking us to 43 pts
MAN CITY
Spurs H = 3
A Villa A = 1
Luton A = 3
C Palace H = 3
Everton A = 3
Sheff Utd = 3
Total = 16 pts tacking them to 45 pts
LIVERPOOL
Fulham H = 3
Sheff Utd A = 3
C Palace A = 3
Man Utd H = 3
Arsenal H = 3
Burnley A = 3
Total = 18 pts tacking them to 46 pts
So after the next 6 matches I have the top 3 looking something like:
LIVERPOOL 46 PTS
MAN CITY 45 PTS
ARSENAL 43 PTS
As a point of interest I have both Tottenham and Villa on 37 points giving them both a point today plus their next 6 matches.
——-
Two games in to the 6 this is how the teams are fairing.
ARSENAL
As expected Arsenal took maximum points from the first 2 games, but not without drama. That leaves us on target for the 43 points I predicted.
MANCHESTER CITY
So far they have unexpectedly dropped 2 points at home to Spurs, and now dropped another point to what has to be said was a magnificent Aston Villa tonight. That means they are now looking at 42 PTS
LIVERPOOL
As expected they have won their first 2 games, but again like Arsenal, not without dramas of their own. Never the less they are still on target for the 48 Points I predicted.
Now, given events at Villa Park tonight we have to include them in this. This is how I see their next 4 matches panning out:
ASTON VILLA
Arsenal H = 1
Brentford A = 3
Sheff Utd H = 3
Man Utd A = 1
We now have a prediction of:
LIVERPOOL 46 PTS
ARSENAL 43 PTS
MAN CITY 42 PTS
ASTON VILLA 40 PTS
Which makes our trip to Villa Park on Saturday evening an even bigger game. If we lose, that potentially puts Arsenal AND Villa on 42 PTS
It’s getting fun up there.
Would be good to run the results for Villa (and to start including them in comparisons) as they are greatly improved this season.