The one thing that Arsenal so clearly need this season

 

 

• Arsenal are losing two players to the internationals, but what effect will it have?
• The value of Arsenal’s squad has shot up: but we still need to see the results

By Tony Attwood

We’ve been exploring the theory that the only thing wrong with Arsenal is its ability as a team to recover from a defeat.   We saw that twice last season, first when between 27 January and 15 February 2023 we suffered three defeats and had one draw.   In those four games we scored two goals.

The second blip came across eight games which included two wins, three defeats and three draws.  During that spell Arsenal scored 13 goals which is 1.625 a game.   Our average across the whole season (including of course the two blips) was 2.316 goals a game.

Now we are seeing exactly the same pattern again: another blip.    If we take the last seven games in all competitions we have four defeats, two draws and one victory.  (Data from 11v11)

 

Date	Match	Result	Score	Competition
09 Dec 2023	Aston Villa v Arsenal	L	1-0	Premier League
12 Dec 2023	PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal	D	1-1	Champions League
17 Dec 2023	Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion	W	2-0	Premier League
23 Dec 2023	Liverpool v Arsenal	D	1-1	Premier League
28 Dec 2023	Arsenal v West Ham United	L	0-2	Premier League
31 Dec 2023	Fulham v Arsenal	L	2-1	Premier League
07 Jan 2024	Arsenal v Liverpool	L	0-2	FA Cup

 

Looking at this it is clear that what Arsenal need is two things – a goalscorer who will score even when the games are going against the team, and a person of such personality that he will galvanise the whole team even when yet another game is slipping away.

And that need looks much stronger than just because the goals have dried up – because this means we need someone who can pick up the whole team.

Now last season I was very much in favour of the approach Arsenal had in which goals were scored by four different main players with a fifth (Eddie) looking as if he could join the merry throng.  If we look at the goal scorers for last season this is clear…

 

Sqd	Player	Starts	Subs	Goals	GPG	Pens	Yellows	YPG
11	Gabriel Martinelli	40	6	15	0.375		5	0.12
8	Martin Odegaard	39	6	15	0.384		5	0.13
7	Bukayo Saka	42	6	15	0.357	2	7	0.17
9	Gabriel Jesus	27	6	11	0.40	1	7	0.26
14	Eddie Nketiah	18	21	9	0.50		3	0.17

 

With those players in the team, the opposition truly didn’t know how to mark them.   

This season we appear to have lost that ability to score – hence the recent defeats, but I am not sure everything is lost.

 

Sqd	Player	Starts	Subs	Goals	GPG	Pens	Yellows	YPG
7	Bukayo Saka	26	1	9	0.35	2	2	0.08
9	Gabriel Jesus	15	6	7	0.47		5	0.33
8	Martin Odegaard	23	3	7	0.30	2	1	0.04
14	Eddie Nketiah	13	14	6	0.46		4	0.31
19	Leandro Trossard	11	13	6	0.55		0	0
29	Kai Havertz	22	7	5	0.23	1	6	0.27

 

The first obvious factor is that Jesus and Nketiah are being yellow carded far more than last season.  Up from 0.26 and 0.17 cards per game they are now on 0.33 and 0.31 per game.  Add to this Havertz on 0.27 cards per game, and we now have three players whose performances will be affected by the worry of another yellow card. 

In terms of goals per game we can see that Saka is performing at the same level as before, as is Jesus, while Nketiah has slipped a bit.   The big drop as we all know is Martinelli but we now have Trossard and Havertz in the charts.

The positive news is that even without Martinelli registering in the goalscoring list we have six potential goalscorers.   But so far the club has only been scoring 1.85 goals a game.   Last season it was 2.32 goals per game, and that is the total Arsenal have to move up to.

I believe this is possible because we now have more goal scorers, and although Havertz’ figure is very low (5 goals in 22 games) that is because he took a while to get going his rate of scoring over the last eight games has been the same as Saka.

So I was of course as disappointed last night as everyone else there – not least by the vast array of empty seats at the Liverpool end – a different arrangement at that end could have made many more tickets available to Arsenal fans.   It was also interesting to see how many Arsenal season ticket holders had not opted in to the cup ticket scheme.  I would like to know why.

Obviously overwhelming the disappointment is that we lost again, but I think the potential is there with once more the goals being spread out across the team.  We just need the ability to get out of the psychological drop of a prolonged dip in form.