- The Arsenal plan: retaliation before the opposition attack
- How close are Arsenal to winning the league, and what happens to the money next season?
A quick look at the form guide tells us that although Arsenal are first and in the league and Aston Villa fifth, there is a huge amount of distance between the two teams.
If we compare Arsenal at home and Aston Villa away we can see the difference quite dramatically. Arsenal have scored 12 goals more and conceded 14 fewer at home than Aston Villa have away, although Arsenal have played one game fewer at home than Villa have away.
Arsenal’s goal difference at home is +25 and Villa’s goal difference away is -1, which says quite a lot.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal home | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 13 | 25 | 38 |
| 4 | Aston Villa away | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 25 |
Added to those reflections above, it will be noted that Villa’s form of late has been patchy to say the least. Of their last dozen Premier League games they have won five, drawn three, and lost four. Two of those defeats have been fairly shocking for a club aiming for a position in the top four: 0-4 at home to Tottenham Hotspur of all people and 4-1 away to Manchester City.
Therefore when we look at the last six games table we find that while Arsenal are top of the table, Aston Villa are in ninth position, and perhaps more to the point, with a negative goal difference for those six games.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 16 |
| 2 | Man City | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Newcastle | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | West Ham | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
If we take this further and look at the home and away situation we find Aston Villa in a slightly better position – although they are still not overtaking Arsenal. For while Arsenal have five wins and one defeat in their last six home games (with a goal difference of +11) Aston Villa have three wins, two draws and a defeat in their last six away games with a goal difference of +4.
But what should very much not be forgotten is that Aston Villa are making serious progress year on year and if they do finish fourth, which is where they are in the league at the moment, this will represent a continuation of what has been happening since promotion in 2018/19.
In that season Villa came 5th in the Championship, winning the play off final. In their first season back in the top league they came 17th, then in 2020/21 they rose to 11th. There was a slip back to 14th for 2021/22 but a return up the table to 7th in 2023/24 which gave them a place in the Conference League.
Villa are still in this competition, and in the first leg of the quarter final beat Lille 2-1 at home. Since this is their only hope for silverware this season, having gone out of the league cup and FA Cup, it is not unreasonable to think that their minds will also be partially on the second leg – thus again suggesting that coming fifth in the league will suit them fine and coming fifth is almost a given.
And although coming fourth would of course bring more prestige and more cash, that would be a much harder task for the club in the Champions League than going into the Europa League where they might have a greater chance of progress.
Manchester United in sixth place are 11 points behind, while Tottenham in fourth, one place above Villa are have only a goal difference of +3 better than Villa.
However Villa have played a game more and although I am sure their fans would love a taste of the Champions League the management might be happier to move from the gentle slopes of the Conference into the Europa next season.
Thus overall I don’t expect Villa to be seeing the match against Arsenal as a must win, but would be quite happy to settle for fifth and a place in the Europa next season as a sign of continuing the progress noted above.
More tomorrow..
