By Bulldog Drummond
One of the topics we have never looked at, is which is the most effective team in terms of shots, so we decided to look at the top six clubs plus Chelsea and see how they compared.
In terms of shots Liverpool are way out in front, having 44% more shots than say Aston Villa, and roughly the same number ahead of Chelsea and Newcastle.
And in terms of goals it pays off – they are just two goals behind Arsenal in the league this season.
But when we look at goals per league game we see Arsenal and Manchester City are edging above averaging 2.33 for Arsenal and 2.38 for Manchester City. And it is here that Tottenham reveal themselves as an also-ran, scoring fewer goals per game than Aston Villa, although more than Chelsea who are the feeblest of our seven club selections in this regard. Arsenal are scoring 18% more goals this season than Chelsea.
But to see how efficient each team is we need to look at shots per goal. After all although a lot of shots might lead to a few extra goals through ricochets and bouncing in off the post, the real aim is to get the shots more accurate.
We know that Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool are within a goal of each other at the top of the goalscoring league, but how many shots are they each taking? It turns out there is a significant difference.
| Team | Shots per Game | Goals per game | Shots per goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 18.6 | 2.38 | 7.81 |
| Liverpool | 20.1 | 2.27 | 9.30 |
| Arsenal | 16.9 | 2.33 | 7.25 |
| Aton Villa | 14.0 | 2.09 | 6.69 |
| Newcastle | 14.1 | 2.16 | 6.53 |
| Tottenham | 15.3 | 2.03 | 7.54 |
| Chelsea | 14.1 | 1.97 | 7.16 |
6.14 is the average number of shots per goal among the teams listed above excluding Liverpool. Liverpool is on 9.30 shots per goal however. That is over half as many shots again as other team require. In shooting terms they are totally inefficient.
Which raises the question, why are Liverpool such poor shots?
In the end it doesn’t matter too much because Liverpool are second in the league. And it is not as if taking all these shots is leaving them exposed at the back. They have conceded the same number of goals as Manchester City. Only Arsenal have a better defence.
Indeed the difference in defences is much greater than the difference in attacks. Just look at the top four in terms of meanness of defence…
- Arsenal: 26 goals conceded
- Liverpool: 32 goals conceded
- Manchester City 32 goals conceded
- Manchester United 48 goals conceded
Now thinking about the game against Chelsea, the difference in goal differences, if you see what I mean, is huge. Arsenal have a goal difference of +51, Chelsea of +9, which when one comes to think about it is rather extraordinary considering the players Chelsea have bought.
In fact Chelsea adopted the approach that many wanted Arsenal to adopt last transfer window, and the window before that, and the window before that and… well you know what I mean. And indeed much of the media were very annoyed with Mr Arteta for not following their demand for more goal scorers. The media and some fans wanted more and more players bought. Fortunately Arteta stood his ground.
So Arsenal have spent less, but are scoring 2.33 goals a game in the League and Chelsea who spent much much much much more are scoring 1.96 goals a game.
But what Chelsea have is one out and out scorer in Cole Palmer who has got 1.15 goals a game – although nine of these are penalties. In fact Chelsea have had 11 penalties this season.
So Chelsea have scored 61 goals, and 30 of these have been scored by two players, 40 by four players.
Now compare with Arsenal, Chelsea have got 61 goals to Arsenal’s 77 of which nine have been penalties, (so slightly lower than Chelsea but not by much).
32 Arsenal league goals have come from three players (Saka, Havertz and Trossard), 20 goals have come from the next three players (Odegaard, Martinelli and Rice)
Thus while Chelsea have 30 goals from two players Arsenal have 23 goals from the top two players
While Chelsea have 40 goals from their top four players, Arsenal have the same – 40 goals from the top four players.
But the next four players for Chelesea in goalscoring terms have brought in 12 goals. Arsenal’s next four goalscorers have brought in 21 goals.
All told Chelsea have 14 Premier League goalscorers this season Arsenal have 15. So it is not the range of goalscorers that Arsenal has, it is the fact that the mid-range scorers are pulling in more goals all the time than those of Chelsea.
Add to this the Arsenal goal difference of +51 combined with Chelsea’s of +9 and it does mean we might be in for quite a game.
The conclusion is simple. Arsenal and Chelsea both have players in their teams who can shoot. It is just that Arsenal’s players take more shots and those shots are more accurate.
