By Bulldog Drummond
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- How Arsenal have transformed their approach for players, and the next transfer
The next Arsenal game is on Sunday at 0100 BST against Manchester United is a match against one of the small number of teams who have historically got the better of Arsenal. Liverpool is another such club, but I am not sure there are many, or in fact any, more.
I know for example that in the games against Tottenham, we have 20 more wins than they do, while with Manchester City we have 35 more victories over them than they have against us. With Chelsea, we are 18 better off. Man U have won 101 of the games and we have won 89.,
However, the last ten competitive games between the two sides have shown a different emphasis, with six Arsenal wins, two draws, and two wins for Manchester United.
Indeed in these games, Arsenal have scored 18 goals while Manchester United have scored 11. They have been helped by the fact that in their two victories across these ten Premier League games, they have scored three each time (3-2 in December 2021 and 3-1 in September 2022).
Man U have finished 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 3rd, and 8th in those last five seasons. This is a very different pattern from Arsenal who have finished 8th, 8th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd. Thus we can see that Manchester United’s average finishing position is 4.4. Arsenal’s average position across those same seasons is 5.0 So Manchester United are on that measure doing better than Arsenal.
But perhaps more importantly their figures are meandering, with them dropping from 2nd to 6th, rising to 3rd, and then dropping to 8th. The key point about Arsenal, and the key thing that makes me feel so encouraged by what Arteta and the club are up to, is that there is no zigzag of league positions – it is solid progress, with now only the controversial, and indeed I think one may justly say, notorious, Manchester City, doing any better.
Also, across the last five seasons Arsenal have been on an upward trajectory when it comes to the number of points, and the goal situation.
| Season | W | D | L | F | A | Pts | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019–20 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 56 | 48 | 56 | 8th |
| 2020–21 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 55 | 39 | 61 | 8th |
| 2021–22 | 22 | 3 | 13 | 61 | 48 | 69 | 5th |
| 2022–23 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 84 | 2nd |
| 2023–24 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 91 | 29 | 89 | 2nd |
What we see here is the number of victories increases year on year, the number of goals scored goals likewise goes up every year except one, the number of goals against goes down every year except one and the number of points rises each year showing a club that is constantly and consistently upwardly mobile.
Let us compare this with Manchester United
| W | D | L | F | A | Pts | Pos | |
| 2019–20 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 66 | 36 | 66 | 3rd |
| 2020–21 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 73 | 44 | 74 | 2nd |
| 2021–22 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 57 | 57 | 58 | 6th |
| 2022–23 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 75 | 3rd |
| 2023–24 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 58 | 60 | 8th |
For Man United, the number of wins meanders, and the number of defeats overall is rising, although not in a straight line. The number of goals scored is fairly static in the last three years, the number of goals conceded rises and falls in no consistent manner, and the number of points this past season was significantly worse than three of the previous four seasons. So although one can see some progress last season showed a significant decline in points gained and a significant rise in goals against for the season.
Thus the difference between the two clubs is reflected at every level – for example, Manchester United lost almost three times as many games as Arsenal, scored around a third fewer goals than Arsenal and conceded twice as many goals as Arsenal.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 91 | 29 | 62 | 89 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 60 |
Their win in the FA Cup final against Manchester City however will have been wildly celebrated, not just because it was against another team that plays in Manchester but because it takes them to 13 FA Cup wins – still behind Arsenal’s 14, but getting closer. It was their first win in the competition since 2016, since when Arsenal have of course won the old pot twice.
I think one can fairly conclude that Manchester United have quite a lot to do just to steady the ship, as it were, and their target must be to get back into a European place next season, before then heading for the Champions League.
However in the last two years, they have won the League Cup once and the FA Cup once, and it may well be that the current management of the club is realistic in thinking that another pot might keep some fans happy, whereas investing everything in an attempt to get into the top four could end in disappointment.
The difference between the fourth and eighth spot last season was eight points and a GD of 16. That might not sound too much, but the fact is that Manchester United had a negative goal difference last time around, and that is never a good sign.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 61 | 15 | 68 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 60 |
