By Nitram.
For those of you who read my ramblings you may of noticed I have taken great interest in the disparity between the quality of opponent both Liverpool and Arsenal have had to face away from home, and it is quite remarkable. Not only is there a massive disparity in quality, but Liverpool have only played 9 away matches compared to Arsenal’s 11.
Following yesterday’s match at Brighton we have now played away at seven of the current top 10 teams. Liverpool on the other hand have still only played away at two of the current top 10 teams. A quite remarkable statistic I think you’ll agree. And if we extend that down another two places, Arsenal have visited a remarkable nine out of those top 12 teams, meaning there are only two top 12 teams we haven’t yet visited.
Compare that to Liverpool who have still only visited three of the current top 12 teams. Or put another way, out of the nine away fixtures Liverpool have played, a remarkable six of them teams currently sit in the bottom 8. The disparity in the level of opponents we have both faced away from home is astonishing.
So what does all this mean? Well, in theory anyway, and despite being potentially 11 points adrift of Liverpool, it is not quite as bad as it may seem. Not quite, although last night’s draw has made things much more difficult than it was when I started putting this piece together on Friday. Even with that thin theoretical hope, theory and reality can often be uncomfortable bedfellows. First and foremost we need theory to turn into reality, and for that we need two things to happen.
1) We need to keep winning. We have absolutely no room for error. (Last night did not help).
2) We need Liverpool to falter at these more difficult opponents. Not a given by any stretch. (We really do need our old foe to do us a massive favour today).
And it’s with that in mind that I think it will be the away fixtures that are going to decide who wins the Premier League.
Note: Before we take a look at those crucial AWAY fixtures, I am making the assumption that both Arsenal and Liverpool WIN all their home fixtures, with one exception. Arsenal also need to get some kind of result at Anfield, which as you will see, looks like it will be absolutely crucial if we are to have any hope of overtaking Liverpool. It goes without saying that if Arsenal are anything other than perfect at home, it’s game over.
So, here we have both teams’ away matches, including their current position and my predictions. Or perhaps more accurately, my hopes as to what will happen.
ARSENAL
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (17) W
- Leicester City (19) W
- Nottingham Forest (3) D
- Manchester Utd (14) W
- Everton (16) W
- Ipswich Town (18) W
- Liverpool (1) D
- Southampton (20) W
Total: Dropping 4 points.
LIVERPOOL
- Nottingham Forest (3) D
- Brentford (11) W
- Bournemouth (7) W
- Everton (16) W
- Manchester City (6) L
- Aston Villa (8) D
- Fulham (9) D
- Leicester City (19) W
- Chelsea (4) L
- Brighton and Hove Albion(10) D
Dropping 14 points
On the face of it, gaining 10 points.
So, if that does happen it appears we will still sit 1 point behind Liverpool. But that isn’t quite true because if we do can get a draw at Anfield that means Liverpool will have dropped two more points, taking us in fact 1 point ahead of them. Job done. If it was only that simple!!!
But, the harsh reality is we have a mountain to climb. Even if we are perfect at home, (and that won’t be easy given the quality of our visitors), and almost perfect away from home, we still need Liverpool to drop all those points away at those trickier fixtures. Which is of course possible, but by no means guaranteed. And crucially, it looks like we are going to have to get a result of some sort at Anfield. Unfortunately, Anfield is rarely a happy hunting ground for us.
Of course, all this is highly speculative, but it’s been fun to do. Not only that, but that enormous disparity in the difficulty of the away fixtures to come is a reality. I am not making that up, it is a fact. It does give us, or at least myself, some hope. And what is life without hope?
Of course, the media will be writing us off as we speak, but they’ve been doing that since August.
Can Arsenal catch Liverpool?
Not if PGMOL have anything to do with the issue.
John L
I understand what you are saying, but I tried my best to avoid even thinking that.
I just tried to do an objective assessment on the basis of opponents.
The PIGmob and their incompetent cheating officials are another thing altogether,
Nitram,
I think that even if Arsenal win the away games battle with Liverpool, and they drop points on their own merit (or lack), it won’t be enough. Since well before the Fiftieth Match the Referees have had their way with AFC. Yesterday was just another example in a very large sample. They will not let AFC win the League. In the 2 seasons prior to this one they have taken points from Arsenal in breathtaking fashion. Remember the WH match? Three mistakes on one play. We know all the incidents and I don’t need to list them.
Unfortunately it just goes on and on. Yesterday’s debacle by Taylor has never been seen before as far as anyone can remember. VAR backs the ref’s call and that’s that. Two points gone, never to be recovered. Two points was the margin last season for City. When egregious ‘mistakes’ are allowed to stand there is no recourse.
So I have to ask: do you think the PGMOL will let AFC win the title?
Sorry all, I wrote this before I saw John L and Nitram had already covered it. Beating a dead horse as they say.
Gooner72
I actually started the piece prior to yesterdays match, and given our recent results, and relatively (I reiterate relatively) balanced refereeing, I was feeling quite positive, despite the potential (at the time) 9 point gap.
Yesterday was a big come down.
It was clear from the start this referee was ready willing and able to do the deed, should the need and opportunity arrive. Unforetuneately for us both arose and he grabbed the chance to screw us with both hands.
I did consider not finishing it as indeed it does all feel irrelevant, because as you say, no matter what we, or indeed Liverpool do, we will simply not be allowed to win the title. That has already been decided.
Liverpool 2 – 2 Man Utd
Well, that helps. Back to where we were before the week end. And for all their attacking flair, and our supposed passing side to side:
Liverpool managed 19 shots with 6 on target.
Arsenal managed 14 shots with 6 on target against the same opponent.
Blimey our crap forward line managed to hit the target as often as Liverpool’s wonderful attack. Would you believe it?
But, this is the big difference:
Arsenal conceded just 5 shots, 2 on target for no goals.
Liverpool conceded 13 shots, 4 on target for 2 goals.
Perhaps Liverpool need a new central defender in the transfer window? I mean that’s 7 more goals they’ve conceded than Arsenal over the last two and a half years. Simply not good enough!!
I mean, despite the fact we’ve scored 10 MORE goals than Liverpool over the same last two and a half years we apparently must have a new striker?
One thing is for sure. The media won’t be slaughtering Liverpool for this result, and nor will their fans, and rightly so.
Measure that against how we are treated for a draw away at a much tougher opponent. Measure that against how their fans will react.
I detest the media. Too many of our fans are just embarrassing.
Did you notice a Man U player kicking the ball away a few yards as the Liverpool player attempted to take a quick free kick. Not even a word to the offending player let alone a yellow card.
Surely this couldn’t have been the same M Oliver who only a couple of months ago came down with the full force of the law to send off Trossard for doing the very same thing.
Okay, here’s the revised edition:
So now, what does all this mean? Well, in theory anyway, and despite being potentially now only 9 points adrift of Liverpool, it is not quite as bad as it was this morning.
ARSENAL
Still dropping 4 points.
LIVERPOOL
Still dropping 14 points
So, still on the face of it, gaining 10 points.
But now, instead of:
“So, if that does happen it appears we will still sit 1 point behind Liverpool. But that isn’t quite true because if we do can get a draw at Anfield that means Liverpool will have dropped two more points, taking us in fact 1 point ahead of them. Job done. If it was only that simple!!!”
Now we can say:
Assuming all my away result predictions (or hopes, as I freely admit) are correct we can now lose at Anfield and still finish level on points.
What in reality this could mean is that the title may well come down to goal difference. Lets assume as above:
-Liverpool win their away game in hand against Everton as predicted, which will put them 9 points clear.
-Arsenal, from their remaining 8 away games, still drop the 4 points I predict, or maybe hope for.
-Liverpool, from their remaining 10 away games, still drop the 14 points I predict, or maybe hope for.
Meaning Arsenal still, on the face if it, have a net gain on Liverpool of 10 points.
Yippee. That’s it. If only.
As difficult as it still maybe, Liverpool dropping 2 points at home today, to what is in reality a mid table team, is a massive shot in the arm for us, and all the other challengers. Nottingham Forest and Chelsea included,
Not only does it tell everyone else that Liverpool are not, as I keep saying, quite the all conquering team the media may have us all believe, but that they are in fact as ordinary as the rest of us.
I use the word ordinary, because that is what we all are this year. Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea.
None of us are setting the World alight. The one that does in the second half of the season will win the league.
Fingers crossed it is us.
Mick Shelly
I pointed one out yesterday. It happens in every single match, and in every single match it is not only ignored by the refere,e but by the media as well.
It is a F***ing disgrace.
But hey, it all evens out in the end.
Oops, better than I thought. We win it by a point. Cant think what I was worried about 🤣🤣🤣
It felt more like a loss , rather than a draw initially , due to crap refereeing , and we being too ( probably ) tired . But Man Utd’s fightback was refreshing . There was a program earlier where the lady said 2-0 to the Pool , while the guy predicted a 5-0 scoreline !
But then again , they were pundits!
If Mcguire had scored at the death , it would have been a great weekend !
Up the Gunners !
Didn’t see Liverpooh v MU yesterday but even the BBC commented how Nunez wasn’t sent off ( imagine if an Arsenal player did this ) , it looks as though you can inflict bodily harm on an opponent and only get a yellow no sending off but technical offences the full force of the letters of laws become relevant , we have players sent off for accidental clash of heads now .
Steve vallins
“we have players sent off for accidental clash of heads now”
Actually it was just a pen, but your point is still valid.
There is without doubt one set of rules for Arsenal and one set for everyone else.
Also your point is good regarding the ‘technical’ offences, or ‘other’ as I think they are called in the Premier leagues data.
We modified our tackling to sort out the yellows we were receiving for breathing on our opponents, so the referees had to find another way of punishing us, and those ‘other’ offenses have given them the perfect opportunity.
As you say, just apply them to The Letter Of the law to us, so effectively they are all valid cards. but give enormous latitude to everyone else.
It happened again yesterday in the Liverpool United game. I heard the commentators praising Oliver for how he was ‘letting a few things go’.
No mention of the importance of applying the Letter Of The Law to Liverpool or Man Utd then?
@ Nitram
My mistake a penalty , I was getting wound up with the many decision we have had to endure over many seasons .
Talking of technical offences thanks to Nwaneri getting booked for taking too long over a corner, Arsenal are now top of the table for yellow cards awarded so far this season for time wasting.