- Arsenal’s misfortunes. Is it really the case that everything is going against the club?
- Arsenal v Manchester City: how the teams have been doing, and more North London Forever
Commentary by Tony Attwood
Following some recent comments by me I have been sent this research and data from Michael Pearson, and set it out below with his kind permission.
The table shows the last six games at this point this season, against the same period last season. Arsenal are in fact at this moment doing slightly better over their last six games than they were at this time last season.
The big improvers over this period last season are Newcastle (up five points) along with Nottingham Forest and Brentford (each up eight points).
Now the obvious issue here is that the better a club was doing last season at this time, the harder it is for them to improve. Thus Liverpool are doing no better than a year ago because they were doing quite well at this stage 12 months back.
Nottingham Forest’s improvement on the other hand is no surprise – they were fairly shocking last year and have a new management system in place that is clearly bringing results.
Another factor of course, is that if the club was doing very badly at this stage last season it is hard for them not to be getting much better just now. Brentford is a case in point. Last season at this stage in the last six games they lost the lot, meaning it is actually impossible for them to do worse. This season they were middling over the last six games, with two wins, two draws and two defeats. That’s solid middle-of-the-table stuff.
So we need to be clear this is a snapshot. But still it is interesting and occasionally amusing…..
| This Season | Pts +/- | Last Season | |||||||
| W | D | L | Pts | W | D | L | Pts | ||
| Newcastle | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | +5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Arsenal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | +1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Liverpool | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| Man City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | -2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| Not Forest | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | +8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | +4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| C Palace | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | +4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Brighton | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | +1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Aston Villa | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Brentford | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | +8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Fulham | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| West Ham | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | +4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Everton | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Man United | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Wolves | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| Tottenham | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| Southampton | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
And you may by now have spotted the amusing moments. Indeed you might well be rolling around on the carpet, so if you are, please stop and continue reading.
For there is Chelsea for example. Heaving been tipped by journalists-all to be doing awfully well this season, and for a while actually doing quite good, in the last six games this season they have got eight fewer points than they got at the same time last season. One may say, “oh dear!”
But really our greatest plaudits must go to Tottenham Hotspur, for few teams can manage a drop as big as they have just had and retain the goodwill of the media.
A year ago at this time they had just won three, drawn two and lost one giving them a rather respectable 11 points from six games. This time they have a single solitary one point from six games. And that reminds us of a rather important issue within football.
Many clubs can rise up to the top and then swiftly follow the curve back down the other side of things. So it isn’t just getting to the top that is clever, it is staying there. That’s why we are laughing a little bit at ManC. It was all so easy before when they could spend with impunity (and indeed as far as I know those pesky 115 cases are still being debated with the league even though they technically finished arguing last year.)
Anyway, let’s put the clubs in improving order. On the way up are, Nottingham Forest and Brentford (each on +8 points this season in the last six compared with the same period last year), while on the way down, down, deeper and down are…
Tottenham (-10), Chelsea (-8), and Manchester United (-6). And remember this is just over the last six games, for the same period this season measured against last season.
And the point of all this is that improvement comes with two caveats. First you have to keep the improved level up, once you have got there, and second it is a lot easier to improve when you have previously been down in the depths. So here is the key point, for me at least, and maybe for you too…
In the unprecedented and unrepeated unbeaten season of 2003/4 Arsenal got 90 points. Last season Arsenal got 89 points in coming second. And Arsenal didn’t just come second in the league, they got their second-best level of points ever.
So when we do the comparisons for this season, we are comparing this Arsenal team with one of the best ever Arsenal teams. Ad over the last six games Arsenal are right up there with the performance of a year ago. We are not going to get 89 or 90 points this season because of the high level of injuries the club has had, but over the last six games Arsenal have been back to performing at a level that we have come to expect of the club.
The only people who are complaining are the journalists, and that’s because, well, that’s what they do.
Always.
PS: Don’t forget, if for some weird and bizarre reason you actually want to hear what I sound like rather than see what I write like, I’m on BBC Radio 5 at 10.30am on Sunday 2 February, talking with two Radio 5 presenters about “North London Forever” and why I love it so much. And just as with Untold Arsenal, its all free.
Tony
To clarify the comparison is the results of the last six matches compared to the results against the same teams last season, irrespective of when that fixture was played.