Counter attacks are Arsenal’s weapon without a centre forward

 

Commemorating 100 years since Herbert Chapman came to Arsenal: a new episode in the series is published today.  

By Tony Attwood

Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have all scored more goals than Arsenal this season.   Which seems like a pretty good reason to join the bandwagon proclaiming that Arsenal need a new centre forward.   After all how can Arsenal compete at the top when they are only fifth in the goal-scoring league?

Well, the first point back to that note is that three of those four clubs have only scored one or two more goals than Arsenal.   The only club way ahead of Arsenal is Liverpool with 15 more goals.

But the second point to make is that all of those teams that have scored more than Arsenal have also conceded far more.   So many more in fact that if the table is constructed on goal difference, Arsenal are still in second place.   And not just by the odd goal or two but by a goal difference of 12 above Manchester City and Chelsea and with a goal difference that is double that of Tottenham Hotspur (not that they matter but it is always nice to make a comparison).

Which really raises the question, why do journalists and their followers put so much emphasis on goal scoring when it is only a part of the game?   Indeed why do they go on and on about buying another centre forward all the time?

One obvious reason is that Arsenal have failed to score in the last two games and journalists are notorious short-termists.  Another is that Arsenal draw too many games, and that if seven of those nine draws had been victories instead of draws, Arsenal would be top of the league.

But if in those seven games Arsenal had had a centre forward who could knock in a goal in each case, someone would have to be taken out of the team, and that could have meant an extra goal against the club.  And this is where we see the problem because the sort of out and out centre forward that is demanded by many of the commentators to replace one of the deeper lying players at the moment, could change the defence and result in more goals against – which in turn defeats the whole purpose of the new centre forward giving Arsenal the extra 13 points required.

The fact is that Liverpool have scored 66 goals in 28 games and conceded 26, giving a goal difference of 40.  But a year ago, in the 2023/24 season, after 28 games, Arsenal had scored 70 (ie four more than Liverpool this season) and conceded two fewer, and thus had a goal difference at this point in the season that was six better.

So the Arsenal of a year ago was better at goal-scoring and better at defending than Liverpool this season.  And yet the idea is still to disrupt the entire team by changing the pattern and approach of Arsenal to match Liverpool this season, which seems odd.

Doubly odd in effect as Jorginho and Thomas Partey both have contracts that expire at the end of June and presumably need replacing.

Now, one of the constant approaches to this in the media is that Arsenal could buy or keep any player they want – it is only a lack of ambition that stops this from happening.

This is an approach that is particularly degrading to players, for it treats them as nothing but packages of meat to be bought and sold.   Players have their own ambitions and their own views, as well as having agents who manipulate them in order to get a slice of a forthcoming transfer fee.

Thus, every club faces situations in which players they want to keep are attracted away through being offered big signing-on fees, exciting add-ons, guarantees of how many games they will play and so on.  As often as not, players turn down Arsenal and other clubs because of bigger offers from elsewhere.

Now of course that could lead to the argument that Arsenal could then make a better offer, but we all know that some players actually turn out to be not as good as they were expected to be, so if all the money is blown on one such player that leaves the club still searching for a solution, but with far less money left with which to find it.

A lot of the problem here comes because the journalists like to suggest they have inside knowledge of what happened in a failed transfer, and thus can place all the blame on Arsenal, whereas the player might not have wanted to come to England nor to Arsenal for all sorts of personal reasons or because of media coverage of Arsenal in their own country based on all the whinging and whining about Arsenal in the English media.

But the story goes on and on.  Arsenal could have any player they wanted if only they would act more quickly and offer the right money.

And all the time we should remember that buying a centre forward is not the only solution to scoring more goals without conceding more at the same time.

For as the New York Times recently pointed out, Arsenal have “conceded the fewest open-play goals for the second season running.”  Start playing around with the structure of the team, and that great benefit goes.

Another recently reported factor is that Arsenal have “won the ball in the opposition third more than other teams that play a more “vertical” approach.  Bringing in a new centre forward whose approach is one of knocking in 20 goals a season might look like it could add 10 or more goals to Arsenal every season and thus potentially give the club the title, but it could also reduce the number of goals from elsewhere.

And this really is the heart of the problem.  Bring in a player who is just a goal scorer might sound good, but it could reduce the efficiency of the rest of the team.

12 Replies to “Counter attacks are Arsenal’s weapon without a centre forward”

  1. Today’s Guardian includes a piece on Man City’s injuries and states that the fact that, despite this handicap, being 4th in the league, is a great achievment and proof of Guardiola’s high class as a coach. ! ! ! !

    They must think that 4th is higher than 2nd.

  2. Off topic
    C Palace v Millwall in the FA cup.
    Yet another disgraceful and shocking Michael Oliver decision. Mateta absolutely poleaxed by a head high boot from the flying Millwall goalie.
    I do not remember the last time I saw a more dangerous challenge yet neither Oliver nor the linesman even saw it as a foul. Luckily VAR saved the day and recommended Oliver go to the screen and the red card was issued. It should be a ten match ban it was that bad.
    I expect we will get the usual nonsense from Webb excusing and defending Oliver, his star man. If he is our best ref heaven help the rest of them.
    I hope that Mateta, who was taken straight to hospital, is not too seriously injured.

  3. Mick Shelly

    “I expect we will get the usual nonsense from Webb excusing and defending Oliver, his star man. If he is our best ref heaven help the rest of them”

    Before I get to my point, of course my first thought is with Mateta. Lets hope he is okay.

    Of course you are right. The default position of Webb and his apologists at SKY Sports is always damage limitation. It seems to matter not a jot about the health and wellbeing of players, let alone the correct application of the Laws Of The Game. As long as they can maintain the façade that all is well in the best league in the World with the best officials in the World, that’s job done.

    Incompetence. Bias. Hypocrisy. Duplicity.

    Footballs governing bodies, officials, and main stream broadcasters are rife with them all.

    It is a diabolical shame.

  4. The absolutely laughable, if it wasn’t so serious, thing is, this is the guy that sends Arsenal players of for the most trivial, contrived offences you are ever likely to see.

    The closest thing I have seen to kicking a players head off and he does nothing. NOTHING.

    As you suggest Mick, if this is the best referee we have then God help us.

  5. Nitram
    I see that after successful trials IFAB have approved a change in the law relating to the amount of time a goalkeeper can hold on to the ball. Currently it is six seconds but is never penalized, but from next season it will be increased to eight seconds and the keeper will be penalized with a yellow card if they exceed this amount of time. Play will restart with a corner kick to the opposition rather than an indirect free kick as now, not that it is ever enforced.
    Several of the mainstream media usual suspects (Mail, Telegraph, Mirror to name but three) are running the story with a picture of David Raya clutching the ball. Of all the goalies available it is of course a coincidence that the only picture they could find was one of the Arsenal goalkeeper, thus tainting us by association as being the masters of time wasting.
    Anyone would think they want to paint Arsenal in a bad light but surely they wouldn’t do a thing like that would they?

  6. Mick Shelley

    Givemesport have done a table of the ‘biggest’ timewasters this season, and despite the fact we sit 4th.And despite the fact they concede in their analysis that it is not surprising we have hung on to the ball somewhat given the amount of time we have had to play with 0men. Guess who the picture is?

  7. Nitram
    Found it and surprise, surprise the picture is David Raya
    Who’d of thought it.
    Same old Arsenal, always cheating!

  8. @ Mick and Nitram

    The ‘assault’ (intentional or not) on Mateta which Oliver didn’t even deem to be a foul, resulted in 25 stitches to his head. If Oliver is the best we’ve got then I’ve still got every chance of a 100m gold at the next Olympics!

    Oliver has consistently got very major decisions, not just wrong but spectacularly wrong. He didn’t even see the Mateta incident as a foul or a head injury that required play to be stopped! This is the level of incompetence we’re talking about. Not only is he still in a job, he doesn’t ever appear to get punished for such gross ineptitude. Webb will no doubt defend him with comments about the angle being deceptive or some such bull. On the inside though, even Webb must realise Oliver is both a liability and an embarrassment.

  9. An excellent article on Arseblog titled ‘What does Michael Oliver see?’.
    Sums up yesterdays diabolical performance perfectly and includes a still shot that shows Oliver has a clear unimpeded view of the incident.

  10. John L

    Also, his sense of timing is immaculate when it comes to Arsenal as he deemed it necessary to give Trossard for kicking the ball away less than 1 second after blowing his whistle.

    And of course his memory is also impeccable when it comes to Arsenal as we found out when he sent Martinelli off for 2 offences in 30 seconds, something he’s never done before or since.

    From Reddit a month or so back:

    “Michael Oliver has sent an Arsenal player off in 8 out of 55 games. This needs investigating.”

    “It’s 6/28 when we’re away from home,…”.

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