PSV v Arsenal: Can Arsenal match a team that has scored 3 goals a game this season?

 

• English media doubles down on its effort to protect English referees
• Even football clubs at the top can make losses. But why do the owners allow it?

By Bulldog Drummond

There seems little doubt that Saka will not be playing in this round of the Champions League, but could be back in time for the next round, if as we all hope, Arsenal progresses.  The one player who will be back in the squad is Myles Lewis-Skelly, having served his suspension.

This season PSV Eindhoven have played three fewer games than Arsenal but won one more, and lost one more.   But the biggest difference is their goal scoring where they have an amazing 22 goals more scored and six more goals conceded than Arsenal    Both teams lie second in their league.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
2	PSV	24	16	4	4	73	29	44	52
2	Arsenal	27	15	9	3	51	23	28	54

 

PSV are in fact unbeaten at home with nine wins and three draws.  Arsenal away from home have seven wins, five draws and two defeats with a goal difference of +12.

On the surface, this looks an extraordinary achievement for PSV, although we might also note that they only came 14th in the Champions League part one.   Here is the table as it concluded before the play offs.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	8	7	0	1	17	5	+12	21
2	Barcelona	8	6	1	1	28	13	+15	19
3	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	16	3	+13	19
14	PSV Eindhoven	8	4	2	2	16	12	+4	14

 

In the first leg of the playoffs offs, Juventus beat PSV 2-1 at home, but then in the return game, PSV won 3-1 in extra time.

But we should also note that things have not all been going PSV’s way of late despite their successes earlier in the season.  In fact in the last five matches PSV have lost to Juventus on 11 February, then drawn at home with Utrecht in the League, beaten PSV in the return match, lost to Go Ahead Eagles at home in the domestic cup and then lost away to Go Ahead Eagles in the league.

The goalscoring total across those five games between 11 February and 1 March was eight to PSV and nine to the opposition sides.   So just over one goal a game.   A victory for Arsenal is not beyond the realm of possibility.

The League table in Holland, courtesy of Soccerway  reads…

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	LAST5
1	Ajax	24	19	3	2	52	18	+34	60	WWWWW
2	PSV	24	16	4	4	73	29	+44	52	LDDDW
3	Utrecht	24	13	7	4	43	36	+7	46	WDLDD
4	Feyenoord	24	12	8	4	48	27	+21	44	DWDWL

 

…and clearly the “last five matches” column is the one that is of particular interest.

Thus the only factor in PSV’s favour that might concern us is their ability to score 73 goals in 24 games.  But the fact is that their high scoring matches all came much earlier in the season, with three games in which they scored five, one in which they scored six, and one in which they knocked in eight.  In their last seven games in all competitions, they have won none, drawn two and lost five, which makes the whole thing look a bit more encouraging.  Especially as this relates to a team which before its current dip had a 5-4 win, another by 8-0, one by 6-1 and before that a 5-0.

In the last ten seasons, they have come top three times, second five times, including last season, third once, and fourth once.  Last season’s 73 goals with its goal difference of +44 was pretty spectacular but actually a decline on the 2023/24 season in which the club knocked in 111 goals and had a goal difference of +90.  Only once in these last ten years has the goal tally dropped and that was in 2019/20 when they dropped down to fourth and scored a poor 54 goals.