- Ipswich v Arsenal: the preview and the days of scoring five (or more)
- Prmotion to and relegation from the Premier League has changed beyond recognition
By Tony Attwood
Chris Kavanagh is the referee for the Ipswich game. As usual we can have a look at a few of the referees active in the Premier League at the moment – in this case comparing Kavanagh with four or five other active PL referees this season.
In addition, I have included in the table below, a row marked “Range” which reveals how many more fouls and cards the top referee in our selection has given than the least active referee when it comes to waving cards and blowing the whistle. That bottom row is quite shocking Figures throughout are from WhoScored.
| Referee | Games | Fouls pg | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Taylor | 27 | 21.30 | 2.85 |
| Simon Hooper | 21 | 20.33 | 4.67 |
| Chris Kavanagh | 21 | 21.43 | 4.86 |
| Robert Jones | 19 | 24.89 | 4.16 |
| John Brooks | 15 | 22.67 | 5.33 |
| Range | 22% | 187% |
The difference between the referee who perceives the most fouls in his matches and the referee who perceives the least, among our selection of five fairly active referees in the Premier League, is 22%. Jones sees 22% more fouls in his average game than Hooper. Kavanagh is at the bottom end of that chart.
But Kavanagh is right in there at the top of the chart for the number of times he waves the yellow card – and here the range of referee activity is enormous. Brooks waves cards 187% more times than Taylor. And Kavanagh is up near the top end as well.
This is quite ludicrous – how can one referee see almost three times as many yellow card offences in each match as another, with both referees overseen by the same organisation? One can only assume that there is no control, no training, no guidance, no anything in the PGMOL when it comes to making sure that referees are acting in the same way.
In terms of results under specific referees, there is the same wild and whacky variation on show. The percentage of home wins seen among these referees ranges from 15.8% to 66.7%. The level of away wins ranges from 13.3% to 51.9%. And the level of draws ranged from none at all to 52.4%!!!
Now to be clear I am not saying that the numbers should be the same for each referee, but if referees are seeing teams from across the league (which they should be doing) then roughly speaking their percentages of different types of result should be fairly close to the average.
But the reality is the exact opposite.
| Referee | Games | Home WinS | Away WinS | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Taylor | 27 | 25.9% | 51.9% | 22.2% |
| Michael Oliver | 23 | 30.4% | 39.1% | 30.4% |
| Chris Kavanagh | 21 | 28.6% | 19.0% | 52.4% |
| Robert Jones | 19 | 15.8% | 36.8% | 47.4% |
| John Brooks | 15 | 66.7% | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| Michael Salisbury | 11 | 45.5% | 54.5% | 0.0% |
Thus yet again we can see that what the outcome of a match is, depends as much if not more on which referee is overseeing the game than on how the teams play. This of course brings the whole of football refereeing and the PGMO into utter disrepute. We should NOT be able to make a fair prediction of the result from who is in charge – but in fact one can do. But it also brings all of football commentary into disrepute since no one else mentions this.
Arsenal in this game are going to have to work doubly hard to get a win, a this referee does not oversee away wins very often. His favourite result is a draw, and so that becomes the most likely result. Only one in four of the Ipswich home games this season has been a draw, but the referee will be helped in his desire to see draws, by the fact that almost half of Arsenal’s away games have been draws.
Of course, the fact that Arsenal have scored 57 goals to Ipwich’s 33 should still count for something and we can hope for an Arsenal win, despite the referee’s propensity for draws. But that still doesn’t excuse the PGMO allowing refereeing to continue along the lines of results following each referee’s favoured outcome.
Although if you have a bit of spare time you might like to ponder a) why PGMO allow this to continue, and why b) newspapers and blogs that really do love statistics never engage with the figures that relate to the people controlling the games.
PGMOL mission will be to see Liverpool confirmed as champions as soon as possible.