Arsenal’s defeat, the calls for new players and the PSR rules

Posted on by Tony Attwood

 

By Tony Attwood

Arsenal last night had four players missing from the team that beat PSG earlier in the season.   These were Riccardo Calafiori,  Gabriel, Thomas  Partey and Kai Havertz.  Replacing them were Jakub Kiwior, Myles Lewis-Skelly,  Mikel Merino, and Leandro Trossard.

Did that make the difference?   Quite possibly yes.   And I think that the fact that PSG have already won their league and have nothing to think about in that regard made a difference too, in terms of how they are approaching other matches, with nothing to worry about.  

In short, in their last four games, they have been taking it easy, letting Aston Villa win by just one goal, (knowing they had done enough to win in the previous round), just about edging past Le Havre by the single goal, drawing with Nantes and suffering a home defeat to Nice.   None of that looks like a team putting in a full-blown activity for each match leading up to the Arsenal game.

But at least there is another round to play.   And the fact that it was Arsenal’s first defeat in 13 matches shows that this is hardly a dead-beat Arsenal team.

Arsenal seem fairly confident of coming second in the Premier League this season, being five points above Newcastle and six above Manchester City, with four games left to play in the league for each of these teams.   (Nottingham Forest sitting in sixth on the same points as Chelsea have an extra game to play).

So in this regard, we might have a look at the last six games table – and the only worry is that Newcastle are outperforming Arsenal in the league at the moment.  Thus  Arsenal can’t let too much slip away in the coming league matches (by focussing too much on PSG) if they want to hold onto that second place for the third season running.

 

 
Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Wolverhampton Wands 6 6 0 0 13 4 +9 18
2 Newcastle United 6 5 0 1 18 6 +12 15
3 Aston Villa 6 5 0 1 14 4 +10 15
4 Liverpool 6 5 0 1 14 6 +8 15
5 Manchester City 6 4 2 0 13 5 +8 14
6 Arsenal 6 3 3 0 11 5 +6 12
7 Nottingham Forest 6 4 0 2 9 6 +3 12
8 Chelsea 6 3 2 1 6 4 +2 11

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The remaining league games are against Bournemouth, Liverpool, Newcastle United and Southampton.   Bournemouth are being very mid-table at the moment, and Southampton we know are already dead and buried, but Liverpool as we can see above are doing well on current form, with Newcastle doing even better.

So although it is right for Arsenal to focus on the Champions League – after all the deficit is only one goal – they must not lose track of the desire to finish second in the league.  Allowing either Newcastle or Manchester City to overtake them because of the focus on the Champions League would not be an utter disaster, but it would cause a great outpouring of angst and demands for the manager to go in both commercial and social media outlets, and none of that would do any good to the club.

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 34 25 7 2 80 32 48 82
2 Arsenal 34 18 13 3 63 29 34 67
3 Newcastle United 34 19 5 10 65 44 21 62
4 Manchester City 34 18 7 9 66 43 23 61
5 Chelsea 34 17 9 8 59 40 19 60

 

It would also be good for Arsenal to knock in a few more goals in winning the remaining league games in order to finish above Newcastle and Manchester City in terms of goals scored, just to dampen down the already written demands in the media for a new centre forward.  (Already written in the sense that they will probably just rehash earlier articles).

If Arsenal were to come second in the league as still seems likely, and go out in the semi-final of the Champions League, this will of course be painted by many as being an absolute failure showing the need for a major re-working of the team, but it will in fact be a reflection of the way in which the season was utterly disrupted by injuries.   That might of course happen again, but that too seems unlikely.

But there is another point.   In 2023/24 Arsenal made a loss of £17.7million despite generating a record income of  £616.6m in the year, 32% up on the previous 12 months.  This was of course helped by getting back into the Champions League and this season’s financial results will again have that benefit whatever happens in the return fixture with PSG.   But this success was achieved through transfers (Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber) and there is an issue here.

None of the calls I have seen for further player recruitment has included any thought about the limits that are now in place on club finances.  It is all very well saying we need to buy a new centre forward, but really we should not be looking to do that by breaking the profit and sustainability rules.  One day maybe next week, maybe next year, maybe in five years, the League will find Manchester City guilty of breaking those PSR rules and they will be punished.   We really don’t want Arsenal to be the next club in the dock.

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4 Replies to “Arsenal’s defeat, the calls for new players and the PSR rules”

  1. Personally I don’t think 2nd is anything like sewn up. Luckily top 5 IS almost guaranteed. Why? Because I believe Newcastle, Man City and Nottingham forest can win all their remaining fixtures. The only other

    Okay, the following is, as far as we are concerned, worst case scenario. But given where our focus is. Given where our challengers focus is. This is by no means impossible.

    In no particular order these are:

    Newcastle’s matches and my points prediction: Bri H = 3 Arse A = 3 Ch H = 3 Ev H = 3 Total of 74 points

    Man City’s matches and my points prediction: Wol H = 3 Sot H = 3 Bou H = 3 Ful A = 3 Total of 73 points

    Notts For matches and my points prediction: Bren H = 3 C. Pal A = 3 Leic H = 3 Wh A = 3 Ch H = 3 Total of 75 points

    Chelsea matches and my points prediction: Liv H = 1 New A = 0 Leic H = 3 NF A = 0 Total of 64 points

    Okay, this is definitely worst case scenario, but these teams are all playing well, and they are all determined to secure a CL place.

    I think maximum points for Man City is almost guaranteed.

    Newcastle are flying and arguably their only really difficult fixture is us. They have been a bit of a Nemisis for us in recent years. Maximum points for them, at a cost of 3 for us, is not out of the question.

    Notts F matches are also all very winnable.

    We have Liverpool away. Relaxed. We have Newcastle at home. Even playing well it is not beyond the realms of possibility that we lose both of those, speciallly if we have other fish to fry. But even if we don’t, that means we will be out of the CL and who knows how that will affect us?

    So if we do lose those 2 tricky games, we must win our other 2 just to finish on 73 points.

    That would mean if those other sides get the results I think they can we will be bellow both Newcastle and Forest. Our goal difference should keep us above Man city, and chelsea’s tough fixtures allied to the fact they are also still in Europe, should put them out of the running.

    Okay, as I say, worst case scenario, but if we are not careful we could finish as low as 4th, on 73 points, behind Forest on 75, Newcastle on 74. If we really mess up and drop more home points against Bournemouth at the weekend we could also finish 5th, bellow Man City.

    2nd is anything but done and dusted.

    Even top 4 isn’t guaranteed.

    All I’m saying is, we have to be bloody careful or it could all go really pear shaped.

  2. My thoughts on last nights game , the loss of Thomas Partey changed the whole dynamics of how our midfield played , Odegaard playing normal role , Rice and Merino holding . Merino first game in a while playing in midfield (our loss of a centre forward) who I think would have been harder to look after than Trossard. someone to aim at , Rice was restricted with defensively responsibilities hence no runs into the box .
    Lot of changes in how we played , obviously there early goal made it difficult and IMO Odegaard hasnt been the the same player since his injury and the birth of his and partners baby .

  3. Steve Vallins,
    I agree on both players. But the overall lack of creativity in Arsenal’s attack is a diminished Odegaard. He’s never fully recovered from his international duty injury. He’s not the same player and so much of what Arteta wants to do runs through his spot. No one has stepped up and, of course, there’s no like for like replacement in the squad. Getting him right may be more beneficial than bringing in a striker who disrupts the way they play.

  4. All that working out and Forest lose their first ‘gimme’, Brentford at home 0- 2.

    Two things.

    -It just shows you to take nothing for granted in this league.

    -Does that mean forest have ‘bottled it’ ? Sure

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