Arsenal v Bournemouth: the utterly shocking reality of refereeing in the PL this season

 

 

 

• Arsenal v Bournemouth: the old Arsenal problem – where will the goals come from?
• Arsenal v Bournemouth: commands from the people who say they know

By Tony Attwood

This article contains a shocking fact.  It is in the final paragraph.  But I know you might find my style of writing tedious and/or this subject very dull so I’ll give you the fact first, and then go through the figures.   Here it is.

Michael Salisbury and Jarred Gillett have each overseen 13 Premier League games this season.  Jarred Gillett has seen 3% more fouls than Salisbury – a number so small it would not normally be worth mentioning.  Each gives out penalties at exactly the same rate – which also sounds good.   So the referees are more or less equal in their approach to football this season…..

But Gillett has handed out 53% more yellow cards this season than Salisbury.

Fortunately, Arsenal are wise to the bias and machinations of PGMO employees and seem to be adjusting their game to the referee that they have.  Thus in the 2021/22 season we had two home games with Gillett in charge, against Southampton and Wimbledone (in the league cup) and won both.

In 2022/23 we had three games with him – two wins and a home defeat to Brighton – a reminder of just what the ref can do. Last season it was an away defeat to Villa and a home thumping of Burnley.  This season it looks like the lesson has been learned.  Iit has been a home win against Wolverhampton and an away win over Tottenham.

This ref is very much in the upper reaches of spotting fouls.  And because Bournemouth have committed more fouls this season than any other club that is important for this season Bournemouth are only allowed to put in 1.36 tackles per foul, while Arsenal putting in fewer tackles and committing fewer fouls, can deliver 1.44 tackles before a foul is called

Thus Bournemouth commit 20.5% more tackles than Arsenal and get 25% more fouls given against them than Arsenal.   As a result Arsenal can deliver just under 6% more tackles before a foul is called.

 

 

That very obviously is not much of a benefit to Arsenal, but Bournemouth are match by match doing damage to themselves, not only by tackling too much but also by continuing to do it even when they are delivering bad tackles.

But there is more, because although you will most likely not hear a commentator note the fact, Bournemouth have committed more fouls in the Premier League this season than any other club.  An astonishing 455 fouls.compared with 365 for Arsnal – as the individual match analysis suggests. 

So whichever way you look at things Bournemouth commit 25% more fouls than Arsenal game by game.  They are the fouling team of the Premier League, although they don’t seem to carry that reputation.  Commentators hardly mention it.

All of which, makes the table of referees particularly interesting as we compare Jarred Gillett, today’s referee, with other PGMO employees.

And thankfully we find that Jarred Billett is right near the top at  22.62 fouls called per game in referees, meaning he perceives 13% more fouls than for example Simon Hooper in every match.  Quite how he manages to do this we don’t know of course, because PGMOL will never tell us, but he does.

And yet despite seeing all these extra fouls, he doesn’t seem to see them in the penalty area with he gives under half the number of penalties that Anthony Taylor gives!

Gillett gives 53% more yellow cards than Michael Salisbury.   So why is this?   Well, of course, we don’t know, because PGMOL never say a word.

Referee	Games	Fouls pg	Pen pg	Yel pg
Anthony Taylor	28	21.32	0.32	2.89
Simon Hooper	22	20.00	0.18	4.64
John Brooks	15	22.67	0.20	5.33
Michael Salisbury	13	21.92	0.15	2.85
Jarred Gillett	13	22.62	0.155	4.38

 

In fact there is only one possible way to explain all this, and that is that different referees oversee games in totally different ways and the media don’t report this ever, at all, either because PGMOL have told them expressly not to because it is far too embarrassing, or because the newspaper sports editors have such a dim view of their readership that they think their readers can’t understand numbers.

So whatever the reason I’ll repeat the fact.   Michael Salisbury and Jarred Gillett have each overseen 13 Premier League games this season.  Jarred Gillett has seen 3% more fouls than Salisbury – a number so small it would not normally be worth mentioning.  Each ggives out penalties at exactly the same rate.  But Gillett has handed out 53% more yellow cards this season than Salsibury.

Now maybe you don’t think there is much that needs to be talked about here, in which case you’ll just move on.   But if like me you think that this variation between one referee and another means that clubs that see Salisbury a lot get a huge advantage over clubs that see Gillett a lot, then you will think there is real bias here cause by PGMOL – because it is they who a) train and b) pick the referees.

It could be overcome if there was a) better training for referees, b) an insistence that no referee sees any club more than twice in a season and c) a willingness for the media to examine just how bad PGMOL referees are.  But in each case there isn’t.