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By Tony Attwood
For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, Arsenal start their Premier League campaign away from home – this time against Manchester United. Is this the League trying to make life tough for Arsenal?
To answer that we have to ask, “Does that make a difference?” And in reality, it seems not if we look back over the past six seasons as Arsenal have won five and lost just one of those opening games. That defeat came on 13 August 2021, a 2-0 loss away to Brentford. The wins across this period from 2019 to 2024 have been against Newcastle United, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Give that Manchester United came 15th last season this fixture selection continues the trend of pitching Arsenal away against lower-ranking teams for the opener.
Arsenal’s wins in these opening matches have been by one goal (against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest) by two goals (against Crystal Palace and Wolverhampton Wanderers) and by three goals against Fulahm. The one defeat was against Brentford by 2-0 in 2021. And 2021 is the season you might remember if you are a regular watcher, for Arsenal lost all three opening games, against Brentford, Chelsea and Manchester City with a goal difference of -9. The media predicted relegation.
Arsenal came fifth. Burnley, Watford and Norwich went down at the end of that season, They were 12th 16th and 19th respectively after three games. At the othe end Tottenham were the outright leaders having had three straight wins. They talked of trophies (as they always do) and endeed up fourth just one place above Arsenal, and so they celebrated!
Which perhaps, just goes to show that the opening league tables of a new season don’t always give us much of a clue as to what is going to happen thereafter. And yet….
This coming August Arsenal’s fixtures are away to Manchester United on the 17th, at home to Leeds United on the 23rd and away to Liverpool on the 30th. Last season Arsenal drew 1-1 with Manchester United, and 2-2 with Liverpool away. The last time we played Leeds away in the league was on 10 October 2022 and the result was a 0-1 win to Arsenal.
So if the results of the first three matches follow the same pattern of the last time Arsenal met each of these teams at the same venue Arsenal will have five points after three games. This compares with seven points from three games last season leaving Arsenal in fourth place. In the table below I’ve added a column at the end showing where each team ended up.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | End | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| 3 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 5 | Newcastle United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
That makes quite interesting reading (to me if no one else) in that after just three games the final top three clubs are already in the top four places. And that made me wonder if that was the normal pattern. So going back to 2023/24 here is the top five after three games,
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | END | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 2 | West Ham United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Here the top three at the end of the season are in the top five places after three games.
This is now looking like rather a good way to take on a bookmaker so let’s try just one more. 2022/23. And here it breaks down just a bit in that only the top two at the end of the season are in the top five after three games.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | END | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| 3 | Leeds United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 5 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
The Leeds turnaround does look rather strange but in fact their great start to the season did only last three games with wins against Chelsea and Wolverhampton and a draw with Southampton. After that, it was six defeats and two draws in the next eight games.
So what can we say? That being in the top five after three games is certainly no guarantee of being there at the end of the season. But for clubs in the top five after three games there is over a 50% chance of being in the top three by the end of the campaign.
In other words, two wins and a draw against Manchester United, Leeds and Liverpool would be a great start, but even without that, we could still do all right by the end of the season.
Last season Arsenal beat Manchester United at home, and drew with Liverpoool away. As for Leeds United the results of the last 14 games between the two sides have been 12 wins for Arsenal and two draws. So maybe this isn’t going to be so tough after all.
