Salavia Prague v Arsenal. Why clubs now study the referee in advance of a game

• Slavia Prague recent results and Arsenal’s drive to be fouled less often
• Slavia Prague v Arsenal, Tuesday night

By Tony Attwood

Just before getting onto tonight’s game, there was a little note I read this morning to the effect that Gary O’Neil has said that he doesn’t fancy going back to Wolverhampton W’s, as head coach.  I am not sure he has said why, but from the outside it looks to me as if the criticism levelled at him by media and fans previously, has made him reckon it is simply not worth it.   

And that is a reminder of the fact that rubbishing a club’s manager, either from the press box or the stands, can have consequences.  Maybe O’Neil isn’t the right man for the job, but the fact is that it is never a good sign when managers start saying “no” to a club, and it is a reminder to fans that booing the manager can have consequences across the whole football world.  Other managers see what’s going on and think, “Maybe I’ll wait for something a little less fractious.”

Meanwhile, the argument about football fixtures around Christmas and the New Year rumbles on, and Arsenal have now asked for the game against Everton to be moved, given that Arsenal have been ordered to play Palace on 23 December.   The problem, of course, as Arsenal says, is the extra two games that clubs have to play in the Champions League part one, which adds to the pressure. 

Both sides are complaining about a lack of time to prepare, although Arsenal said they would of course, play on the dates originally set.  Palace, however, have refused – I guess they didn’t realise that winning the FA Cup and having a club owned by someone who owned other clubs, could have consequences – like playing in Europe.   Arteta has not threatened to do anything if the date problem isn’t resolved, but he certainly has the choice of rotating the squad to the detriment of the League Cup.   As he is quoted as saying, “I’m sure we will apply the principles of first of all the players, then the supporters, and then the time that we need to have equality and the same chances for every club. So hopefully it will be fair.” 

According to the Guardian, Arsenal are “missing seven first-choice attackers and their manager believes the packed schedule is partly to blame.”

Interestingly, the EFL, which of course runs the League Cup, said, “To continue making endless concessions only serves to undermine the reputation of the EFL Cup – a competition which delivers vital revenue to EFL clubs and provides millions of supporters with the opportunity to back their team on the road to Wembley each season. 

“It also challenges the traditional scheduling of the English football calendar and strength of our domestic game, which relies upon teams having the necessary time for preparation and ability to field their strongest lineups, in order to entertain their supporters and progress through the competition.”

However, one of the very big problems in football is yet another topic that the media has chosen to ignore: fouls per game

What happened with Arsenal was that in 2021/22 the club was being fouled 9.4 times a game as they finished fifth in the league.  However, in 2022/23 the fouling rate rose by over 20% for 11.4 times a game as they launched their first serious challenge for the title – the first of their three consecutive years of coming runners up.  Quite simply Arsenal knew they were going to be fouled constantly and not being protected by the referees through cards to the opposition, and so Arsenal changed how they played to avoid this.

In 2023/24  as it became clear just how serious a challenge Arsenal were in terms of winning the league, so the number of times they were being fouled started to rise further.   But although the number of fouls against Arsenal stabilised for one year there was a rise again in 2024/25 to 10.7.  But the fouls against Arsenal did not rise to the crazy levels of 2022/23, suggesting that Arsenal players were getting better at avoiding foul tackles and that PGMO men were getting more alert to the way other clubs fouled Arsenal.

So the number of fouls per game against Arsenal again dropped slightly through a combination of reasons.   Clubs are aware that comments are being made, referees are letting tackles that were being call fouls, now pass as fair tackles, and Arsenal are getting better at passing the ball more quickly.

However, tonight’s opponents and tonight’s referee will probably be unaware of this battle going on within the Premier League and the opposition may well tear into Arsenal with the referee giving Arsenal little protection.   Which of course, is why Arsenal have had a team watching Prague’s last few games, as well as others studying videos of tonight’s referee.   

Football shouldn’t be like this, but this is what it has become..