This could be the tightest north London derby for a while but Tottenham willl be very wary

 

By Tony Attwood

The last six games table is probably the best guide to current form we have, especially if we take into account home and away results.

But let’s not jump the gun – here is the last six games stable for the Premier League, taking into account both home and away games

 
Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 6 5 1 0 10 3 +7 16
2 Manchester C 6 5 0 1 14 3 +11 15
3 Aston Villa 6 5 0 1 12 5 +7 15
4 Chelsea 6 4 0 2 11 6 +5 12
5 Brentford 6 4 0 2 11 7 +4 12
6 Brighton & H 6 3 2 1 11 7 +4 11
7 Manchester U 6 3 2 1 13 10 +3 11
8 Sunderland 6 3 2 1 8 6 +2 11
9 Tottenham Ho 6 2 2 2 9 7 +2 8

 

And now the results tables for Arsenal home and Tottenham away

 

Team/venue P W D L F A GD Pts
2 Arsenal home 5 4 1 0 12 1 11 13
1 Tottenham Hotspur away 5 4 1 0 12 3 9 13

So let us see who each team has been playing, first Arsenal at home…

 

Date Match Res Score
23 Aug 2025 Arsenal v Leeds United W 5-0
13 Sep 2025 Arsenal v Nottingham Forest W 3-0
21 Sep 2025 Arsenal v Manchester City D 1-1
04 Oct 2025 Arsenal v West Ham United W 2-0
26 Oct 2025 Arsenal v Crystal Palace W 1-0

 

And Tottenham away – and clearly the opening away game of the sequence was an excellent result for Tottenham, but beyond that, the away games have been against clubs that have been struggling somewhat at home.

 

Date Match Res Score
23 Aug 2025 Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur W 0-2
13 Sep 2025 West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur W 0-3
20 Sep 2025 Brighton and Hove  v Tottenham Hotspur D 2-2
04 Oct 2025 Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur W 1-2
26 Oct 2025 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur W 0-3

 

So for each club there is one game that looks potentially very difficult, and the others look reasonably possible for a win.  And indeed that is exactly what each has delivered.

So the last six matches suggest that Arsenal should stroll through this, but the home and away form suggest that this could well be a draw.  So let’s see what, if anything, the recent results between the two clubs in the league have to tell us.

If we look at the period from November 2015 through to December 2020 we can see 11 games in which Arsenal won just two, both home wins, one in 2017 and one in 2018.  Tottenham won four and five were draws.   But if we start looking at league results we find a gradual change in emphasis.  

For in 2020/21 both gteams won 18 games in the league, Tottenham finishing one point above Arsenal because of an extra draw.

In 2021/22 again the clubs were close in the league with Tottenham just edging it getting two points more than Arsenal through the season.   But then over the last three seasons we see a dramatic change, Arsenal coming out on top by 24 points in 2023, 23 points in 2024, and 36 points last season

W D L F A Pts
2022–23 Arsenal 26 6 6 88 43 84
Tottenham 18 6 14 70 63 60
2023–24 Arsenal 28 5 5 91 29 89
Tottenham 20 6 12 74 61 66
2024–25 Arsenal 20 14 4 69 34 74
Tottenham 11 5 22 64 65 38

 

And there is another factor that I have rarely if ever seen taken into account by the media ahead of a big game, and that is the mindset of the individual players.  Of course, people always talk about “being professional” and not being influenced by the event itself, and some players – indeed at Premier League level most players – can do this.  But if either side is relying on any players who are not used to a derby game of this intensity, that can be difficult to adjust to.

Thus, it might be possible that some Tottenham players will be affected by the crowd – I would hope that all Arsenal players, including those who arrived this last summer, will be aware of the occasion and supported by the Arsenal crowd given Arsenal are top of the league.  But this might not be the case for Tottenham players, not least because of their extraordinary injury list.

As The Daily Mail’s headline from May this year read, “Crocked Tottenham players spent twice as long on the sidelines than Liverpool’s.” *   And this issue, combined with the current level of injuries, might just be playing on the minds of some Tottenham players.   Certainly, if any Tottenham player goes down with what appears to be a significant injury during the game, there is going to be a very strong and rather obvious combined intake of breath from the Tottenham bench.

*The grammatical error in that sentence is in the original – it’s not my fault.

 

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