By Christophe Jost and Tony Attwood
To cut through the PGMOL’s propaganda about the “random” assignment of referees, we decided to investigate. And we did this through using two simple metrics that expose non-random appearance of referees in particualr games.
We have called the first of these the Referee Occurrence Stat (ROS) which is merely a count of how many times a specific club (like Arsenal) has been assigned a specific referee this season. Given that there are 18 referees, for the first half of the season eah club should have seen any individual referee only once (ROS=1)
The Game Referee Product is the prodeuct of the ROS count of the two teams. Here the ideal statistical standard for any match in this period is a GRP of 1 (1×1).
And yet when we see appointments for a game such as the North London Derby each club had seen the referee twice so we have a Game Referee Product (GRP) of 2 x 2, which is obviously not 1 but 4.
This simple analysis shows that PGMOL is not only failing to hit the acceptable GRP=1 standard, but is deliberately pushing clubs past the Referee Occurrence Statistic of ROS=1 and into the high-risk statistical bracket early in the season.
Then, we use this simple approach and these numbers to expose exactly when the system deviates from statistical common sense. Or put another way, when we keep seeing the same referees overseeing the same clubs, over and over again.
The Appointment: Michael Oliver and The GRP of 4
It was the North London Derby. A monumental fixture where two clubs battle for glory. But for us at Untold Arsenal, the real drama often unfolds off the pitch, in the office of the PGMOL.
The man in the middle for this massive GW 12 clash is Michael Oliver. And the numbers, as always, tell a story of calculated risk concentration, and not in any way of simple fairness. Below are the rather alarming facts….
The Cumulative Damage (Games 1-12)
- Match: Arsenal vs Tottenham
- Referee: Michael Oliver
- Arsenal ROS: 2
- Tottenham ROS: 2
- Cumulative GRP: 4
- PGMOL Strategy: Maximum Risk Concentration
Arsenal’s Risk Occurrence Stat count with Oliver is now 2. Tottenham’s is also 2. The resulting Game Referee Product of 4 is one of the highest recorded this week.
Now, of course, PGMOL apologists might say that is “symmetry”—claiming it’s fair since both teams are equally exposed—we can also see this as a cynical strategic move.
The referee allocation manager had dozens of lower-ROS combinations available for this game, including referees who haven’t seen either club this season. Instead, they chose to burn two of our rotational slots by using a high-profile official for his second assignment, forcing both clubs into the high-risk statistical bracket in one fell swoop.
This isn’t neutral rotation; it’s systematically managing the fixture list to create statistical debt .
The Smoking Gun: Why ROS=2 is Just the Beginning
If you doubt the PGMOL’s willingness to create dangerous statistical outliers, just look at the Anthony Taylor assignment for the Wolverhampton vs Crystal Palace game this same week.
Palace finished the gameweek with an astonishing Referee Occurance Stat of 3 with Taylor. That means Crystal Palace has now seen one specific referee in 25% of their total matches. This is 4.5 times the statistically expected rate.
This ROS=3 figure is the proof. It confirms, without a shadow of a doubt, that the PGMOL is operationally willing to create massive statistical imbalances when they see fit. Our ROS=2 with Oliver, leading to that Game Referee Product of 4, is not an endpoint—it’s the controlled, strategic step before we, too, are pushed into an ROS=3 assignment later in the season.
The derby outcome may be decided by the players, but the statistical risk was meticulously calculated by the PGMOL, who ensured that the biggest match of the season carried the weight of the largest GRP possible.
Our Weekly Warning
So, as we approach the next gameweek, we know that our cumulative analysis tracks and exposes these non-random patterns. We are watching who PGMOL chooses to concentrate exposure on, who they are isolating with repeated assignments, and who they are systematically burdening with statistical debt.
We will continue to highlight these figures and track every single assignment, because when the numbers deviate this drastically from statistical expectation, you know the true opponent is the system itself.
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Sadly most fans only think about the selection of the Referee for the game when the ref makes a mistake that is clearly wrong and goes against their team.
In fairness to the majority of fans I add that there is the fact that most of us do not have the time to study the practices of the PGMOL.
The football media is not prepared to publish on this subject as you have pointed out many times.
I do not know the answer to the activities of the PGMOL. Do you?