By Christophe Jost and Tony Attwood
To cut through the PGMOL’s propaganda about the “random” assignment of referees, we decided to investigate. And we did this through using two simple metrics that expose non-random appearance of referees in particualr games.
We have called the first of these the Referee Occurrence Stat (ROS) which is merely a count of how many times a specific club (like Arsenal) has been assigned a specific referee this season. Given that there are 18 referees, for the first half of the season eah club should have seen any individual referee only once (ROS=1)
The Game Referee Product is the prodeuct of the ROS count of the two teams. Here the ideal statistical standard for any match in this period is a GRP of 1 (1×1).
And yet when we see appointments for a game such as the North London Derby each club had seen the referee twice so we have a Game Referee Product (GRP) of 2 x 2, which is obviously not 1 but 4.
This simple analysis shows that PGMOL is not only failing to hit the acceptable GRP=1 standard, but is deliberately pushing clubs past the Referee Occurrence Statistic of ROS=1 and into the high-risk statistical bracket early in the season.
Then, we use this simple approach and these numbers to expose exactly when the system deviates from statistical common sense. Or put another way, when we keep seeing the same referees overseeing the same clubs, over and over again.
The Appointment: Michael Oliver and The GRP of 4
It was the North London Derby. A monumental fixture where two clubs battle for glory. But for us at Untold Arsenal, the real drama often unfolds off the pitch, in the office of the PGMOL.
The man in the middle for this massive GW 12 clash is Michael Oliver. And the numbers, as always, tell a story of calculated risk concentration, and not in any way of simple fairness. Below are the rather alarming facts….
The Cumulative Damage (Games 1-12)
- Match: Arsenal vs Tottenham
- Referee: Michael Oliver
- Arsenal ROS: 2
- Tottenham ROS: 2
- Cumulative GRP: 4
- PGMOL Strategy: Maximum Risk Concentration
Arsenal’s Risk Occurrence Stat count with Oliver is now 2. Tottenham’s is also 2. The resulting Game Referee Product of 4 is one of the highest recorded this week.
Now, of course, PGMOL apologists might say that is “symmetry”—claiming it’s fair since both teams are equally exposed—we can also see this as a cynical strategic move.
The referee allocation manager had dozens of lower-ROS combinations available for this game, including referees who haven’t seen either club this season. Instead, they chose to burn two of our rotational slots by using a high-profile official for his second assignment, forcing both clubs into the high-risk statistical bracket in one fell swoop.
This isn’t neutral rotation; it’s systematically managing the fixture list to create statistical debt .
The Smoking Gun: Why ROS=2 is Just the Beginning
If you doubt the PGMOL’s willingness to create dangerous statistical outliers, just look at the Anthony Taylor assignment for the Wolverhampton vs Crystal Palace game this same week.
Palace finished the gameweek with an astonishing Referee Occurance Stat of 3 with Taylor. That means Crystal Palace has now seen one specific referee in 25% of their total matches. This is 4.5 times the statistically expected rate.
This ROS=3 figure is the proof. It confirms, without a shadow of a doubt, that the PGMOL is operationally willing to create massive statistical imbalances when they see fit. Our ROS=2 with Oliver, leading to that Game Referee Product of 4, is not an endpoint—it’s the controlled, strategic step before we, too, are pushed into an ROS=3 assignment later in the season.
The derby outcome may be decided by the players, but the statistical risk was meticulously calculated by the PGMOL, who ensured that the biggest match of the season carried the weight of the largest GRP possible.
Our Weekly Warning
So, as we approach the next gameweek, we know that our cumulative analysis tracks and exposes these non-random patterns. We are watching who PGMOL chooses to concentrate exposure on, who they are isolating with repeated assignments, and who they are systematically burdening with statistical debt.
We will continue to highlight these figures and track every single assignment, because when the numbers deviate this drastically from statistical expectation, you know the true opponent is the system itself.
.
Sadly most fans only think about the selection of the Referee for the game when the ref makes a mistake that is clearly wrong and goes against their team.
In fairness to the majority of fans I add that there is the fact that most of us do not have the time to study the practices of the PGMOL.
The football media is not prepared to publish on this subject as you have pointed out many times.
I do not know the answer to the activities of the PGMOL. Do you?
We have Anthony Taylor for the Chelsea game. He’s reffed them 45 times and has only ever given them one red card. He’s reffed us 51 times and given us seven red cards. The most he’s given any other club is four. Strangely he’s given Chelsea 25% more yellows than he’s given us but given us 700% more reds. How does that work?
If you look at the ten clubs he’s reffed the most in his career you’ll a very strange pattern of red cards. Arsenal, as you know, have received seven reds,; then one team has received four; seven have received three; and then there’s Chelsea with one. Looks a bit like a reasonable pattern of neutrality sitting slap bang in the middle of some statistically very odd decision making.
Irrespective of the “ROS” theory in the article, I find those red cards stats a little bizarre, to say the least…..and not too encouraging for Sunday’s game!
Slightly OT, I read an interesting stat on the Daily Cannon today. Apparently, Rice and Zubamendi have played 2,015 minutes of league football between them this season. During that time, they have conceded 16 free kicks but have only been awarded four….and not one of them was awarded to Declan. 986 minutes played in a central midfield role, being tackled from all sorts of directions and not one free kick. The article compares this with Rodri who has played a mere 294 minutes yet has been awarded five free kicks.
I decided to explore this a little further with the help of WhoScored.com. I started by looking at the least used midfielders this season and I found nine had played fewer than 20 minutes in total and four of them have been awarded at least one free kick. In the case of Tyler Dibling at Everton, he’s played just 17 minutes and been awarded two free kicks! And Christatntus Uche of Palace has only played a total of 8 minutes all season but has been given one free kick.
By way of comparison with Rice, Bruno Guimaraes is the only midfielder to have played exactly the same number of minutes this season. He has been awarded 28 free kicks compared to zero for Declan. A bit odd, I thought.
Just to see whether this was just an anomaly I thought I’d have a quick look at last season. Only eight midfielders played more minutes than Declan and every single one of them was awarded at least twice as many free kicks per game than him, several three times as many and one player 5.5 times as many…..one Bruno Guimaraes! I shall watch him more closely in future to try and work out why!
I know I’m a bit hung up on statistics but that’s because I think facts are far more relevant than opinions when trying to prove something. Having said that, I’m not sure what I’m trying to prove here but these are certainly some intriguing facts which suggest that maybe the opposition are allowed a little bit more slack against us than against others.
Mikey, the reference to Guimares is striking, as he is also a player who seems to repeatedly get away with fouls for which others are normally penalised. I don’t recall him ever getting a red card, but I am sure that there have been a number of occasions when he has been spared a second yellow for offences, which, in themselves, would be worthy of a caution.
Mikey
I think maybe you should go a few seasons when Rice was still at WHU.i feel its an Arsenal thing coz if the numbers were more then definately The Arsenal are been treated differently.
@MHUKAHURU
I quite agree. I didn’t want to bore everybody with more stats but I also looked at the Xhaka’s playing for Sunderland.
In short, he is treated very reasonably by refs currently and from what I have seen of him he still plays the same game he played for us. He was targeted by virtually every ref in the league when he played for Arsenal. The media excused that by saying Xhaka had a history of being a dirty player………..so why don’t refs target him now? The “history” is still the same it’s just the shirt (and the attitude of media and refs) that has changed!!
@ John L
I can’t explain it other than to observe that one of our most senior refs is a big Newcastle fan….is it possible that the only way to progress in the PGMO is to keep certain people happy???