Arsenal v Wolverhampton. What Arsenal need to be wary of.

 

 

By Tony Attwood

Now I come to think of it, this is a bit of a curious match to put on TV.  It is in fact, the sort of game that is normally kicking off at 3pm on a saturday, and in England, not even Radio 5 (which has the broadcast rights for matches at that time) touches it.  Yet here it is on a Saturday evening, live on the box.

And it is difficult to see quite why unless someone at Sky has a fascination with top v bottom, or maybe they think it might be a goal fest and so could attract viewers that way…

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 15 10 3 2 28 9 19 33
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers 15 0 2 13 8 33 -25 2

 

…but I am not sure that has been a reason to show this sort of affair before.    And are they really expecting a goal fest?    That would be nice, of course, but Wolverhampton have let in on average fractionally over two goals a game (2.2 if you want the exact figure) so far, and Arsenal score on average 1.87 goals a game.   So based on that we might expect 11 men behind the ball for Wolverhampton and Arsenal to win 2-0.

Still there it is, on TV in the UK.  And maybe it is there to stop us talking about Manchester Disjointed, who now have reported debts of £1,290,000,000.   Which is quite a lot, really.    Yes, they have made hundreds of low-paid staff, like cleaners, redundant – exactly the people who really do feel it when they lose their jobs.    And rather amazingly, the club has managed to reduce its income just when it needs to put it up.   Still, I am sure they know what they are doing.

And it was thinking about this that made me ponder further the finances of Wolverhampton Ws.   

In 2023/24 (the last season for which figures are available) their income went UP, largely as a result of more money from broadcasting.  Which means assuming they go down in May next year, they are going to lose a pretty big part of their annual revenue.

What’s more, they also benefited that year by TV revenue going up as they were in 16 matches that season (compared to 12 in 2022/23).  Oh yes, and they reached the quarter finals of the FA Cup.

Now, of course, they are on TV this season too – as per tonight – but I doubt that it is happening quite as often.   And sadly for them (but I guess understandably), their average gate numbers are going down.  In 2022/23 it was 31,423, in 2023/24 it was 31,037, and in 2024/25 it was 30,755.   This season it has dropped further to 29,972.   Arsenal’s average this season is 60,168.   (And did you know the second-highest average this season is West Ham?   62455.   All the figures are here).

At Wolverhampton, all matches in the year were played in front of near-capacity crowds, with an average attendance of 31,265 (31,346 in 2022/23).  (Figures from Transfermarkt).

They have however, been making money from selling players (apparently a whacking profit of £64.6m in 2023), which has obviously helped the balance sheet but explains their collapse in the league.   Unfortunately, they did spend all of that on investments in new players, but it seems not the right new players.

Now last season at this time as we can see below they were in a mess – not bottom of the league but 19th…

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers today 15 0 2 13 8 33 -25 2
19 Wolverhampton Wanderers 2024 15 2 3 10 23 38 -15 9
16 Wolverhampton end 2024/25 38 12 6 20 54 69 -15 42

 

What that shows is that in the last 23 games of last season, they won 10, drew three and lost 10 – which is, of course very much a mid-table run of form.   The big difference, however, was that in the first 15 games last season, they scored 23 goals, while this season in those games they have scored only eight.   True, their defence this season is a bit better than last season but even so, there is little reason to imagine that this campaign they will put in a real turn of speed as they did in 2024/25 and avoid relegation.

So the big thing Arsenal need to be wary of is overconfidence.   As long as there is none of that we should be fine..

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