Arsenal v Everton this weekend: early thoughts and a concern

 

By Tony Attwood

On Saturday at 8pm, Arsenal play Everton.   I’ll do the usual Untold preview of the game of course, but I thought it was worth also reflect on just how much the top of the league has changed.   And indeed how much it hasn’t.

Arsenal have won the most games of any team in the league, equal with Manchester City.  After them comes Aston Villa, one game behind in terms of the number of wins.   Arsenal has also lost the smallest number of games this season in the league – no other team has lost just two matches.

 

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 16 11 3 2 30 10 20 36
2 Manchester City 16 11 1 4 38 16 22 34
3 Aston Villa 16 10 3 3 25 17 8 33

 

Arsenal have not been the top scoring team for some time, being outscored by Manchester City for whom Haaland has now scored 17 league goals.   But Arsenal still have the best defence in the league, with five goals fewer conceded than Chelsea in second place.

However, it is the goal difference table that is rather extraordinary.   Here is the top of the league for last season in terms of goal difference

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 38 25 9 4 86 41 45 84
2 Arsenal 38 20 14 4 69 34 35 74
3 Manchester City 38 21 8 9 72 44 28 71
4 Chelsea 38 20 9 9 64 43 21 69

 

In mathematical terms, Liverpool scored 2.1 goals for each goal they conceded last season.     Arsenal scored 2.03 goals for every goal they let in.  Now that doesn’t affect the way the table is presented since it is goal difference (that is goals scored minus goals conceded) that counts.   But showing goals as a ratio does give a way of comparing clubs in terms of the relationship between their attack and their defence, and as we can see Arsenal and Liverpool were very close last season.

As for this season, the top four based on goals scored and goal difference reads the same…

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
2 Manchester City 16 11 1 4 38 16 22 34
1 Arsenal 16 11 3 2 30 10 20 36
4 Chelsea 16 8 4 4 27 15 12 28
3 Aston Villa 16 10 3 3 25 17 8 33

 

Manchester City have scored 2.38 goals for every goal they have conceded so in terms of goal scoring, they are outdoing what Liverpool did last season.   Arsenal, however, are scoring 3.0 goals this season for every goal they have conceded, which is an extraordinary achievement.  I’ve not gone back through the history books but I can’t recall the last time I saw this difference.

That figure doesn’t put Arsenal top of the goal difference table because that takes into account the eight extra goals Manchester City have scored compared with Arsenal.   But it does stress the fact that the quality of the Arsenal defence has not been established by focusing everything on defence, as was sometimes said of the George Graham teams, for example.

The difference between the two clubs is further illustrated by recent events.  In four recent league games, for example, Manchester City have knocked in a total of 14 goals, or 3.5 goals a game.   An extraordinarily high number which, if maintained through the season, would result in 133 goals being scored.  In the last four games Arsenal have managed just six.

So on that basis, Manchester City seem to be steaming ahead, and yet of course the season is not balanced in such a way – form ebbs and flows – not least because there is no attempt by the fixtures committee that arranges fixtures to balance the level of difficulty of fixtures for clubs from one week to the next.  It is quite possible for a club to play three of the top six teams in a sequence of six games, or maybe play none of them in those six games.

The League does not reveal how the fixtures are worked out, and that leaves us guessing and indeed pondering if there is anything biased happening.  As indeed happened early in this season, when Arsenal had a run of matches against Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and Newcastle United in four games.

True, Arsenal did overcome Newcastle and Forest in those four games, but having the games against Manchester City and Livefrpool so early in the season and in close proximity was an extra psychological challenge for Arsenal.  Two defeats in those games would have had the media proclaiming 

But turning back to the game this weekend, as I mentioneed Arsenal are playing Everton away, and Manchester City are playing West Ham at home.

So, looking ahead, we might compare these two opponents.  West Ham in terms of their away form and Everton in terms of their home form.

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
13 West Ham United away form 8 1 4 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Everton home form 8 4 2 2 11 9 2 14

 

Arsenal are clearly facing the tougher prospect here, and this is where it becomes interesting to look at the referee we have.  And I’ll come to that when I have checked what appears to be something of an odd detail in terms of refs….

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *