By Tony Attwood
A quick look at Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures reveals instantly why in the Chelsea camp there is not particular worry about the upcoming League Cup semi-final, for without any fear of injuries keeping players out of subsequent games, their fixture list is doing them every favour it could.
And of course I do know that each team plays the others twice, but sometimes the list can have a twist of fate that does make a difference.
For the Chelsea fixture list after the league cup semi-final reveals an away game at Wolverhampton Wanderers on 7 February, a home game against Leeds United on 10 February and then an away game to Hull City on 13 February. Nothing there to make the heart miss a beat, and every chance to rotate the squad.
So on that basis, Chelsea can put out the strongest side that they wish for the League Cup semi-final against Arsenal, and have no worries if anyone does get injured. Subsequent opponents will hardly have Chelsea quaking. They have already committed 28 more fouls than Arsenal this season, and might well feel like taking that number higher
Arsenal, however, have different issues, for after the home game against Sunderland on 7 February, it is Brentford away on 12 February, and then what should admittedly be an easier game against Wigan three days after that in the FA Cup, followed by Tottenham away on 22 February.
It is also interesting to read the sort of comments that some Manchester C supporters are putting out against Arsenal at the moment. Normally, we don’t bother with these too much because they tend not to deal with the facts and statistics of football as we do, but this one caught my eye on Twitter….
“Crying about refs every game when almost every title you won in your career is tainted by a series of corrupt referee officiating is a different level of unawareness.”
What is particularly interesting is that as ever, no evidence is provided in such a comment. Now, although I have never done the research, I suspect for most clubs, one can find a supporter or two writing a blog which complains about the ref every week. The only difference is that our regular comments about referees are based on statistics provided by WhoScored – the only statistical source on this issue.
However, there was one interesting comment that I did pick up on, on Instagram.
“We have become less able to accept what doesn’t match our own perception. The world has turned into a place where difference is a threat and disagreement feels personal.”
I am grateful for that comment and indeed the follow-up that read, “The most important voice is no longer the most informed one, but the loudest one…”
It was a commentary which ended, “But how about if we thought we might not be right…. Or listening a bit more. Or considering we might not know everything.” And when no comprehensive statistics from a reliable source of provided, that is how I feel.
Which is why I am delighted to see Sports Mole of late taking up our approach of many years by looking in depth at the referee ahead of Arsenal games.
Of course I am not going to repeat what Sports Mole says – you can read it obviously – but I would note that the referee tomorrow has “has shown more red cards to Chelsea than any other team throughout his refereeing career, alongside Fulham, issuing three dismissals in 12 matches…. Meanwhile, Bankes has overseen Arsenal on two fewer occasions… while the referee has never awarded a red card to the Gunners.”
Arsenal have won seven, drawn one and lost two out of their games under this referee. WhoScored goes further by allowing us to compare his home and away figures…
| Referee | Fouls pg | Fouls Per Tackle | Pen pg | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bankes home team | 11.00 | 0.71 | 0.13 | 1.56 |
| Peter Bankes away team | 11.25 | 0.62 | 0.19 | 2.50 |
| Percentage difference | +2% | -13% | +46% | +60% |
The last row (percentage difference) shows how much higher or loqwe a percentage the away team has than the home team, in each case. So Bankes sees 2% more fouls from away teams than home teams. That is negligible, and the sort of figure we would like to see all the time.
And indeed Bankes sees fewer fouls per tackle (13% fewer in fact) from away teams than home teams. That reflects a tendency we are seeing as away teams to be ever more careful in tackling, knowing the propensity for referees to give more fouls against away teams in general.
But Banks gives 46% more penalties against the away teams than he does against the home teams, and an astounding 60% more yellow cards against away team players than home team players.
Now we might choose to believe that this is because away teams become ever more desperate in their defending, or that the referee is ever more responsive to the shouts of the home crowd. Either way, Arsenal need to be very careful in defending. In my view, if an Arsenal defender gets a yellow, he should be substituted as soon as possible to avoid the referee giving him a second card soon after.
