By Tony Attwood
- Why is there home advantage, and why does it only apply for some referees?
- Arsenal v Brentford. Do Arsenal need a recharge or is it already full speed ahead?
This is a somewhat light-hearted projection in terms of what might happen to Arsenal this season based on how the club has been doing, and comparing the result with the final table in the unbeaten season.
So in the chart below we have in the top line of figures the actual results from 2003/4 – 38 games played, 26 won, 12 drawn, no defeats.
The second list is our current position in the league after ten games, and from that we create a speculative final line (2026/7 END) in which we have assumed that the same pattern of results as seen thus far, will continue to the end of the season.
| Season | P | W | D | L | F | A | PTS | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003–04 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 0 | 73 | 26 | 90 | 1st |
| 2026-07 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 | 1st |
| 2026/7 end* | 38 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 57 | 4 | 102 | ? |
*Obviously this is a speculation based on the results so far. Thus this bottom line establishes how we would be dong if we continue the current way to the end of the season.
The mathematics give us 102 points at the end of the season – so 12 points higher than the unbeaten season of Arsene Wenger and co, Curiously this projection gives us a grand total of 102.5 points.
Now the highest number of points Arsenal has ever achieved in the league is 90 in 2003/4 so we are obviously looking at a record breaking run here. And the highest number of points ever achieved by a Premier League club is 100 in 2017/18, although of course some of the very negative teams in the league have won the league with far fewer points. Manchester United under Ferguson won the league in 1997 with just 75 points, for example.
And we have to remember that simply get a lot of points does not guarantee the league title. Arsenal knocked up 89 points in 2023/24 and still only came second, although this was something of an exception.
Another way of looking into the future can be to take the last ten seasons and see how many points the winners had, and what that implied for the first ten games. And I should say this is not the actual number of points after ten games but the number that would be expected given their final total.
| Season | Club | Points | Averaged Pts after 10 |
| 2016–17 | Chelsea | 93 | 24 |
| 2017–18 | Manchester City* | 100 | 30 |
| 2018–19 | Manchester City* | 98 | 26 |
| 2019–20 | Liverpool | 99 | 26 |
| 2020–21 | Manchester City* | 86 | 23 |
| 2021–22 | Manchester City* | 93 | 24 |
| 2022–23 | Manchester City* | 89 | 23 |
| 2023–24 | Manchester City* | 91 | 24 |
| 2024–25 | Liverpool | 84 | 22 |
| 2025–26 | Arsenal | 85 | 22 |
| 2026-27 | Arsenal | ? | 27** |
*Club ignored the financial rules pertaining to the Premier League at the time. The points and hence positions may change following enquiries made in 2026 with a ruling expected in 2026 or 2027.
So Arsenal have got 27 points after nine out of the ten seasons above that would normally be enough to win the title – assuming of course that the club in question kept going at the same pace to the end of the season. (**The averaged points across ten games reflects the average across the whole season reduced by to ten games, not the actual results that season).
Of course this is all speculation – we don’t know the results until the season is over, but what we can say is that in their current run of results, with Arsenal winning nine out of ten, the club is doing better than every club in the past ten years except one – ManCity in one season – and of course we now know that Manchester City achieved this total by ignoring the financial rules of the day.
This is of course a bit of fun and games (except for the ManC comments which are deadly serious) and each season is of course different from every other. But the figures do suggest that thus far this season Arsenal once again on track to win the league.
Now before anyone points out otherwise I will add that I am perfectly aware that the season lasts for 38 league games, and it is far from unknown for a top club suddenly to fall apart following (for example) a set of injuries. It is also not unknown for clubs lower in the league to put in some very solid and indeed dangerous tackling against such a leading club, as if perhaps encouraged by another club so to do.
We obviously have no knowledge of the future and thus our projections remain a bit of fun based on the notion of what might happen if Arsenal carry on as they are. In reality of course we have to wait and see.
