30 responses

  1. Two Left Feet
    17/12/2011

    I love your analysis but I believe your thesis is partly flawed. Your assumption is that because Man Utd haven’t spent mega-money over the last 5 years, it signals that there are potentially internal concerns at the club regarding future revenues. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case however since despite the Glazers soaking away millions of pounds every year in interest charges and what not, Man Utd continues to make good operating profits and the books show that they have enough money to spend. The fact that they went out and spent £50 million this summer despite winning the league last year shows that!

    On the marketing front, they have been an absolute roller-coaster and while it will be difficult for them to maintain the same pace of growth, given the growing popularity of football in the overseas markets and the huge untapped fan base that still exists in these markets, I think it may still go on for a while. Arsenal, as you and countless others have pointed, have been constrained in this regard because of the LT deals done with Nike and Emirates. Even then I believe that more could have been done such as the training kit deal that MU did or greater partnerships in Asia and Africa. The Asian tour this summer and the rumored tour of Africa next year are positive signs though and I am sure that income from commercial activities will increase for the club going forward, especially in 2014 5Let’s hope AW is still around at that time to actually use that!!) Whether we will actually catch up with MU in the next five years however is something I am entirely unsure of!

  2. Woolwich Peripatetic
    17/12/2011

    @Two Left Feet,
    I would think the Man Utd transfer problem was called Chelsea. United could put in a huge, overvalued bid for a player and both Chelsea and now Man City could gazzump them. Or clubs just don’t want to sell to them because they want credit and City pay cash. So about the only players they can buy are English, overpriced and looking to get an England cap, something fairly easy to achieve there. None of whom possesses the playmaking skills they need.

  3. Mandy Dodd
    17/12/2011

    Interesting analysis. Also, Utd will soon need to bring in a new manager, who will want his backroom staff and players, costly for a club at utds level.
    I actually think utd have been in decline for a year or two, the Rooney situation last year was telling, just a few chosen refs and other EPL managers have done everything to keep their lord and master top of the pile. This will not last forever

  4. paul
    17/12/2011

    Very intesting article ( as usual ) Personally I think the Glazier’s type of owners are the worst thing to happen to any club at any level. I would hate if Arsenal were loaded with half a billion pound of debt.
    I know that Utd spent £50 millon in the Summer but didn’t they get @ £120 million for being in the Champions league final? I’m sure if we had made it there then Arsene would have a had a huge transfer kitty to spend too.
    Gooner for life.

  5. Marcus
    17/12/2011
  6. bob
    17/12/2011

    Tony,
    I’m sick to the stomach to write this, but I think you understimate their long-term strategic partnerships, the true marriage (kleenex, please) of worldwide brands. Yes, everything does have a limit, but it’s small consolation to invoke this, as, imo, I don’t see MU being even close to maximizing their potential. Beyond their own merchandise store and heavy sales in the Nike stores, etc., they are the most sought-after, sports strategic partner of choice for companies big and small.

    You obliquely reference, but do you fully account for the fact that MU has had massive partnership deals announced this year.
    The one with DHL announced in August.
    http://www.manutd.com/en/News-And-Features/Club-News/2011/Aug/DHL-delivers-ground-breaking-deal.aspx
    This articles covers the DHL shirt deal and adds Concha Y Toro wines, a Smirnoff Vodka tie-in, Turkish Airlines, Kumho Tires, something big in Seoul, Audi, Hublot watches, and growing:
    http://chrisreed.brandrepublic.com/2011/02/18/arghhhhh-manchester-united-brand-partnership-overkill/

    Further, beyond the Aon and Nike logos in evidence, there’s been partners like Thomas Cook, Bharti Airtel, Saudi Telecom, etc.
    Had enough? It makes me sick to admit: but they’re head and shoulders above everyone in their aggressive brand recognition and ongoing projection. To me, this, plus still being the EPL’s face worldwide, I fear it’s why they’re too big to fail on the pitch. (It’s not just the betting.)

  7. RedGooner
    17/12/2011

    Anyone watching the chelsea game 1-1 was good for us NOT sure why Wigan didnt get a penalty you wont see a clearer one all season walter. Maybe theres a different view on the rules by some.

  8. Gord
    17/12/2011

    Apparently FIFA may throw ManU a bone. If the Swiss FA doesn’t act against Sion, Basel may be kicked out of Champions League.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/16230934.stm

  9. bob
    17/12/2011

    Two Left Feet,
    I basically agree, but think you’re not following through on the full implication of what you’ve set forth. Let’s face it, no one will actually catch up to them on the marketing front, given the magnitude of the actual and growing sponsorship gap. To overtake them, in my view, requires massive league-wide fan pressure for fair play on the pitch: an end to Fergie time, video replay (ref in the booth style), published post-match ref reports, rugby style mic-a-ref in the telecasts, etc. etc., none of which the EPL will countenance unless they are pressured to do so by an aroused fanbase or other serendipities. .

  10. bob
    17/12/2011

    Two Left Feet,
    You’ll see my reasoning once my previous comment comes out from moderation. Sorry, I assumed it was already there; so I hope to hear from you once/if you get to read it. Cheers.

  11. critic
    17/12/2011

    We will see whether arsenal are able to sign RVP and theo to prove they have enough faith in our future success and brand.

  12. bob
    17/12/2011

    Critic,
    Yes, lurking with doomsday intent, are we?

  13. Gooner Gal
    18/12/2011

    @ Tony,interesting article.

    Oversaturation and in the product cycle, the concept of maturity are things to which you refer when you highlighted that marketing does have its limits and it does apply to Man U. However, like other brands that have withstood the test of time, football club marketing cycles are renewed all the time and therefore do not have to have an absolute end. Players come and go, management changes, adjusted style of play and winning silverware etc all present opportunities to create new interest in a brand like Man U, which in turn creates marketing opportunities.

    Although, Man U do have a few problems in these highlighted areas. Aside from Rooney and Giggs, Man U no longer have players with global appeal and even those two are tarnished. They need to buy a few household names like Sneijder or bring in a well known manager like Mourinho or keep winning silverware to sustain commercial momentum. As Tony points out, without ‘refreshing’ the brand, there is a very real possibility that Man U’s finances could be seriously affected in only a short period of time.

    A quick fix would be to buy a top player, but with more nouveau riche football clubs about looking for marque signings to make a statement of intent, Man U may have spend quite a bit and I am not sure the money is there anymore. I don’t think the Glazers would ever sack Ferguson, but I don’t think he can operate in a landscape which isn’t tilted in his favour anymore, so he may very well retire in the next two years. I am not sure who would be crazy enough to take the Man U job now with no money to spend and deal with the huge weight of expectation on his shoulders to be honest, which is another problem.

    Winning silverware, without the ref’s help has proved to be difficult so far this season, they are already out of two competitions, which of course affects matchday revenues as well as commercial activites. If Man U go out to Man C in an embarassing fashion in the FA cup, it could have a greater impact on their commercial activities than maybe anticipated as it could signal that Man U are no longer the top EPL club to be associated with in future.

    That said with the feasible possibilities still available, I don’t think there is a marketing bubble as such for Man U. There are definate iceburgs in the waters though, which will be interesting to observe how they navigate them.

  14. Gord
    18/12/2011

    With respect to Manchester United possibly being thrown a bone by FIFA, I think this is unfair to the competition.

    ManU did all that it could, to finish in 3rd place.

    If some team in the first 2 places needs to be eliminated because of a FIFA directive, what is the most fair is some kind of competition between ALL the remaining teams in 3rd place in their groups: ManCity, Trabzonspor, ManU, Ajax, Valencia, Olympiakos, Porto and Plzen. Having those 8 teams compete for the now vacant place (deemed to be second place, regardless of where they were) would be the most fair. But, To have another 3 rounds of play among those 8 teams to decide who gets to take the place of FC Basel (which is only wrong, because it is Swiss), probably can’t happen. There is no time. What there is time for, is a draw. But ManU should not get a “free pass” into the next round, because some bureaucratic decision has eliminated a higher placed team in Champions League.

    And if StomachBladder decides that a fair choice isn’t possible (not that he hasn’t been suspected of endless corruption in the past), it is just another reason for the world to think that FIFA is corrupt.

  15. bob
    18/12/2011

    Gooner Gal,
    The strategic partnership agreements may likely be long term (3 years plus) rather than conditioned on a losing season even. Right now they are sitting pretty. If ManU flame out in one or two seasons even, something highly unlikely, they will not lose those legal agreements until they lapse, at which point they are smart enough to know that big purchases of name brand players will put the sheen back on the tarnished brand scenario. And what, pray, makes you think the Fergie might not get the benefit of doubts on ye old tilted pitch when it’s crunch time? Their biggest financial threat – and most everyone’s threat – is clearly a severe economic downturn.

  16. Tony
    18/12/2011

    My thesis has never been that Arsenal can catch Man U up in terms of the world wide marketing, just as I don’t think Man U can catch up Arsenal in terms of world wide scouting. But I do think that the gap might get less.

    Also I don’t believe that the gap between Arsenal and Man U is that huge, and therefore a modest decline in the marketing gap could make quite a difference.

  17. bob
    18/12/2011

    p.s. In fact (warning alert), ManUre might sleaze its way back into the CL competition if Basel are suspended from the competition – a now real possibility because of a pitched dispute between the Swiss FA and UEFA. That possibility realized, methinks, would be a “sign” of things to come. (Or as the Good Book says and the FIFA/UEFA boys know, the evidence of things unseen.)

  18. bob
    18/12/2011

    Tony,
    Does the marketing gap in your thinking include these strategic partnerships? Do you know that ManUre is the number one in that area in ALL of sports – not only football. And that they are at it full time, full tilt at expanding those partnerships, as well as fielding offers for them at an all time clip? What difference-making modest dip do you see making all that much difference? What difference do you mean?

    To me, the difference we all seek would be made on a level-playing field, the kind that (league-wide, starting anywhere) petitioning for video replay and the like would constitute be a big step forward. No goal line technology will do this, btw.

  19. bob
    18/12/2011

    Tony,
    Also, what is the evidence that ManU don’t have comparable worldwide scouting to us? That’s been stated as long as I’ve been loving Arsenal, and it’s kind of been an article of faith. But with their money, do you actually think they don’t have a comparable scouting system? Believe me, I’d be HAPPY to really know otherwise; but I would like someone to actually demonstrate the scouting-gap that your affirm, and which most of us, myself included, have assumed.

  20. Marc
    18/12/2011

    The TV money won’t be affected by the EU ruling for long. As soon as the current deals come up for re negotiation the prices to Greece etc will go through the roof. The clubs don’t care where the TV money comes from as long as it comes in.

  21. Gooner Gal
    18/12/2011

    @ bob, this is what I mean, if you were in negotiations for a long term strategic partnership, you would be evaluating the future direction of the brand to which you would be associating with. In the future, Man U may not be able to place the same premium price on its branding rights that it does now if the issues that I have highlighted are not arrested. Which in turn could affect the Glazer’s ability to pay down debt and the downward spiral of them taking out more money to pay for other businesses, leaving less in the pot to buy players and spend on wages etc would continue.

    Of course Howard Webb and Co, could ride to the rescue of Man C, but there are small optimistic subtle shifts happening. I never thought it would be possible for Newcastle to get an important penalty at Old Trafford like they did last month or Man U go out in the CL* with the teams they had in their group or Crystal Palace beat them at home like they did.

    Again of course Man U’s biggest threat is the wider economic
    crisis, no one has said any different. In fact the premise of what I was responding to in Tony’s article are the specific ways that Man U could be affected in this tougher climate.

    @ Tony, I don’t think it would be impossible to make significant gains on Man U commercially. We have overtaken Liverpool, which would of been unthinkable years ago.

    *As Gord said above, if Man U are given a reprieve in the CL then it will be a great shame.

  22. Gooner Gal
    19/12/2011

    ****I meant to say Of course Howard Webb and Co, could ride to the rescue of Man U, not Man C!

  23. Gooner Gal
    19/12/2011

    ****I meant to say Of course Howard Webb and Co, could ride to the rescue of Man United, not Man C!

  24. bob
    19/12/2011

    Tony,
    “The profits on players like Adebayor, Fabregas, Nasri, Vieira, Henry, Anelka are just not seen anywhere else in football.” Is this standard operating procedure? Are you making a virtue of necessity? I find us at a philosophical impasse on this score.

  25. bob
    19/12/2011

    Gooner Gal,
    You say: “In the future, Man U may not be able to place the same premium price on its branding rights that it does now if the issues that I have highlighted are not arrested.”
    Of course (to echo your phrasing) your assuredness only holds water if and only if it all works out the way you see it. I think it’s wishful thinking. I share that wish, but I also think it’s that, a wish; not based on anything solid. You say: “I am not sure the money is there anymore.” Any statistics on this? “I don’t think the Glazers would ever sack Ferguson, but I don’t think he can operate in a landscape which isn’t tilted in his favour anymore…” All you offer on this is turning what you call “subtle shifts” into seismic shifts. “[Fergie] may very well retire in the next two years. I am not sure who would be crazy enough to take the Man U job now with no money to spend….” Now it’s no money to spend? “And deal with the huge weight of expectation on his shoulders to be honest, which is another problem.” Last time I looked, “the huge weight of expectation” goes with any top-4 job, of course.

  26. Gooner Gal
    19/12/2011

    @ bob, I am happy to have a discussion or an arguement, if I were able to work out what you are saying that is different to my points. It would great if you were able to clearly state or put forward your own alternative view.

    For the most part the whole article is extrapolated supposition, considering the future of a club.

  27. Gooner Gal
    19/12/2011

    I will have to amend my last point a bit to say that I am happy to happy to have a discussion or arguement with you, if I think it is worthwhile, as I just don’t have the time.

  28. Woolwich Peripatetic
    19/12/2011

    FIFA/UEFA are in an interesting position regarding Sion and Basel.
    Ordinarily those two will not tolerate any interference by local government in the affairs of the member football associations.
    HOWEVER since both are head-quartered in Switzerland they are subject to the decisions of the Swiss courts!
    Blatter and Platini cannot tell the Swiss FA to disregard the ruling of a Swiss court (or face suspension) without being dragged in front of the same court on charges of contempt. Swiss judges aren’t particularly known for being easy going and laid back either.

  29. Mandy Dodd
    19/12/2011

    Not having any knowledge of Swiss law, but I would also like to think Basle would have grounds for suing EUFA until they squeak if they are thrown out of the CL, as none of this has anything to do with them.
    I can quite believe EUFA would love to have Utd back in by any means so they can arrange their annual end of season game with Barca (or maybe Madrid this year) but cannot believe this will happen, that is going too far for even EUFA / FIFA …..surely??

    On the subject of the CL, any guesses on who we will draw if we get past Milan? I thought we would get Napoli this round, close but wrong. Bet I will not be wrong on who I predict if we get through the next time!

  30. bob
    19/12/2011

    Mandy Dodd,
    If EUFA/FIFA use all this to return ManUre to the pitch, that surely would be the crown jewel in their mutual admiration and joint contempt for fans and the sport. I do love your questioning formulation that speaks volumes: “cannot believe this will happen, that is going too far for even EUFA / FIFA …..surely??” Indeed.

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