By Walter Broeckx
Last week when we lost to Chelsea we had the usual people and a even a new one coming to tell us how rubbish we are in the big games.
Now I do think that there is only one big game in the League cup and that is the final. All the other games no matter who we play are just games. Of course we don’t want to lose them really and certainly not when it is a game that is played against a local rival. But I have said this all along that the league cup is more a pain in the ass than anything else.
But after that defeat someone said that Arsenal cannot win big games. I then showed a statistic that we don’t win as many of the big games as we do in general. No problem admitting that we win less games against the other top teams than we win against the lesser teams. But that is something that is the same for all the top teams in fact. The chances of the top teams beating the likes of Crystal Palace are much higher than beating Chelsea. It doesn’t take much science to prove this. I just could say: fact.
Now of course it is one thing saying that Arsenal is useless in big games in order to have a go at the manager and the players, the board, the owner, the tea lady. And the guy who operates the espresso machine where Tony likes to buy his drink at half time. Oh even Tony has a go at that every now and then. And in the meantime they use it to show what great managers all those others team have compared to Wenger. That is the message they want to get across of course: All those other top managers from other teams are much better than Wenger.
In my comment I used the top 4 of the last seasons and then took all the results of the last years. The fact was we then won 35% of our games and had 20% draws and 45% defeats. Like I said not the best score and certainly not as good as in general. Now I could do this for all the other teams in the past and I think that we would see that most of those teams will have a smaller win percentage compared to the other league games against lesser teams. Lesser teams, with all due respect, and just purely based on the league table to use this word.
But the past is the past. What is more important is this season. And so I thought, let us make a league table.
A mini league table in which we only take in to consideration the games played by the top 7 from the PL. As those are the teams that are there over recent years most of the time. And probably will be there for this season also. Be it that currently we have Southampton there in 7th place. Southampton looking to be the surprise package of this season. As we always have a surprise team that has a great season for their standards.
As a result I did leave them out and took the team that stands 8th for the moment: Manchester United. With no disrespect to Southampton but to make this mini league table I took the history of the last seasons as to decide who should be in it or not. Sorry for that.
Now of course for the moment not all teams have played each other and so we have different numbers of games for most teams. But in order to wipe that out I also added the average points per game each team won.
| Team | Pl | Won | Draw | Lost | Points |
Goal difference |
Pts/game |
| Arsenal |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
+3 |
3 |
| Man City |
3 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
+4 |
2 |
| Chelsea |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
1,25 |
| Everton |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
-1 |
1,33 |
| Liverpool |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
-1 |
1,50 |
| Tottenham |
3 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
-1 |
0,67 |
| Man Utd |
3 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
-4 |
0,33 |
And then we see that Arsenal having played only 2 other teams from the top 7 (Tottenham and Liverpool) but they are the only team to have a 100% win record.
Manchester City has played one game more and also have 6 points but they won 2 pts on average from each game.
Chelsea, you know the team that has been praised for their manager who is soooo much smarter than Wenger has played most of the other top 7 teams. But they only managed to win one game so far. I think we all remember the last minute error from the City defence. Without that terrible blunder Mourinho wouldn’t have won 1 (one) top game at all.
In fact if you look at Everton and Liverpool they have won more points on average than Chelsea and Mourinho have. Liverpool also only having played two other top teams so far.
And we also have two teams who haven’t been able to win any of their 3 games against other teams from the top 7. Tottenham is one of them what with having two draws from their top games and one defeat. Still remember that one, don’t we? The pre-Özil days still….
But the team that has done worst in this mini league table is Manchester United. So far they picked up one point in the 3 games they played against the other teams in this table. Now wouldn’t it be nice if we could say next week that they only managed one point out of 4 games?
But so far the team that has done best is Arsenal. Long may it continue.
The books…
- Woolwich Arsenal: The club that changed football – Arsenal’s early years
- Making the Arsenal – how the modern Arsenal was born in 1910
- The Crowd at Woolwich Arsenal FC: crowd behaviour at the early matches
Good work Walter. An error in the Man City results, you have them marked as 1 win instead of 2.
I will send this to Talksport for their comment, they cannot go half an hour without mentioning we haven’t played either of the Manchesters or Chelsea yet. (Last week Liverpool were included in that group but not now!!!)
Interesting Walter but far from conclusive. An analysis over the last 10 years would be more revieling.
All I know is, over the years we have had periods where we have done well against the top teams and dropped what you might call ‘silly’ points against lower teams and visa versa.
When we lose to the Stokes and Boltons of this World but beat the top sides we get labaled as ‘bottlers’ who can’t take a good old fashion Northern kick-in.
Then we have a spell where we can’t seem to get it right in the ‘big’ games but put the ‘minows’ to the sword and we are called ‘flat track bullies’.
Bottom line is, no matter what, the media will find a stick to bash us with.
When you go an entire season unbeaten and yet still some ignorant twat on talkshite can find fault in that (too many draws) you know you are up against it !!!
Mick
I think you’ll find Spurs have also mysteriously dissapeared from the list as well.
Don’t worry they’ll be complaining we havn’t played Bayern Munich yet either….wait a minute !!!!!!
@jambug
Not only too many draws but Pires dived against Portsmouth, so that game counts as a defeat and we also lost some cup games. Adrian Durham’s feeble attempt to re-write history.t
@Mick
Or conversely, Adrian Durhams magnificent attempt to prove himself to be a complete imbosile !!
Interesting observation, but the table would be better arranged in order of points per game.
well I think the table should only include the top 4 teams as it always is namely the 2 manchesters, Chelsea and us. im sorry but Liverpool, everton and spurs? how many times have those 3 qualified for the champions league recently
bc
And in that short post you highlight just what a genius Wenger is, because yes the 4 you point out are ‘The BIG 4’
And within that 4, both Chelsea and City have been donated a BILLION pounds each and Man utd are a licence to print money. Not only that, but at the same time as they have been wallowing in a sea of money we have been paying of a half Billion pound mortgage.
So even if we was/are having a bit of trouble competeing with the other 3 it’s hardly surprising is it all things considered.
The fact Wenger has kept us hanging on there shirt tails is frankly a miracle.
So Mike has chosen to send a ref to Old Trafford who in his bias last season had a big bias in favour of MU. And in the season before… yes you guessed it well…. MU again with one of the highest positive bias numbers.
And Arsenal with… two seasons running a negative bias score.
How predictable, Mr. Riley…how predictable….
Meet Mr. Oliver next Sunday… doing a top game at the age of 28 years old…. a make or break game for him?
Will he chose to make the person who appoints him happy? Or at least try to do this? Or will he try to not become known as another MU ref?
The choice is up to Oliver…we will be watching of course…
@Walter
Were you planning to expand on this data? The top 7 mini-league.
Walter, it has also been my fear that we will probably see some blatantly biased referring, you know, shades of O/T 2004, this weekend at O/T. I’m worried sick…
It also looks like Riley is now sending refs who are still ‘under the radar’ (unless you are a UA regular, most wouldn’t know these refs) to do his bidding, as the more senior refs are now coming under spotlight, the Halsey thing ,etc. If he’d sent Webb for this one it’d have got people talking, so he sends a young ref who not many will take notice of, screws Arsenal and that will be it. Anyway, we shall see come Sunday.
@CL Officials
Referee Björn Kuipers (NED)
Assistant referee Sander van Roekel (NED) , Erwin Zeinstra (NED)
Additional assistant referee Pol van Boekel (NED) , Richard Liesveld (NED)
Fourth official Angelo Boonman (NED)
UEFA Delegate Dag Steinar Vestlund (NOR)
UEFA Referee observer Georgios Bikas (GRE)
The only thing on the English Wikipedia page which I think is interesting, is that he is willing to halt a match:
> In that match, Kuipers took the rare step of suspending the match due to a torrential electrical storm.
More data
http://worldreferee.com/site/copy.php?linkID=548
The most yellows in a game: 9, the most reds in a game: 2, the most penalties in a game: 2.
Oliver…..just one after another….or are they all just the same?
@Walter
I sure hope this doesn’t ruin something you were planning to do.
I have gone back to the beginning of the 2006/07 season, come up with data about how this 7 team mini-league has been competing. The information source was Wikipedia, and while I tried to avoid making mistakes, they could be present.
Starting from Walter’s table, we have for the last 0.25 seasons:
Arsenal 2 3 0 +3 6
Man City 3 8 4 +4 6
Chelsea 4 3 3 +0 5
Liverpool 2 1 2 -1 3
Everton 3 2 3 -1 3
Tottenham 3 1 2 -1 2
Man U 3 1 5 -4 1
Over the last 1.25 seasons:
Chelsea 16 23 19 +4 27
Man City 15 24 21 +3 20
Everton 15 15 16 -1 18
Arsenal 14 19 17 +2 17
Tottenham 15 24 28 -4 17
Man U 15 18 23 -5 15
Liverpool 14 18 23 -5 13
Over the last 2.25 seasons:
Man City 27 49 31 +18 45
Man U 27 49 44 +5 39
Chelsea 28 39 43 -4 37
Arsenal 26 38 38 +0 36
Liverpool 26 35 38 -3 31
Tottenham 27 39 50 -11 29
Everton 27 24 35 -11 28
Over the last 3.25 seasons:
Man U 39 65 57 +8 60
Man City 39 57 46 +11 57
Arsenal 38 56 52 +4 53
Chelsea 40 51 57 -6 51
Everton 39 42 50 -8 49
Liverpool 38 50 56 -6 43
Tottenham 39 53 65 -12 43
Over the last 4.25 seasons:
Man U 51 88 73 +15 84
Chelsea 52 74 71 +3 73
Man City 51 72 66 +6 68
Arsenal 50 75 72 +3 67
Everton 51 60 73 -13 64
Tottenham 51 69 85 -16 62
Liverpool 50 62 69 -7 57
Over the last 5.25 seasons:
Man U 63 105 85 +20 103
Chelsea 64 85 84 +1 86
Arsenal 62 95 92 +3 85
Liverpool 62 87 83 +4 82
Tottenham 63 84 102 -18 79
Man City 63 83 85 -2 75
Everton 63 67 84 -17 75
Over the last 6.25 seasons:
Man U 75 122 95 +27 126
Arsenal 74 116 104 +12 109
Chelsea 76 106 95 +11 108
Liverpool 74 98 93 +5 100
Everton 75 77 98 -21 86
Tottenham 75 97 125 -28 86
Man City 75 90 105 -15 85
Over the last 7.25 seasons:
Man U 87 143 102 +41 152
Arsenal 86 134 117 +17 128
Chelsea 88 120 105 +15 128
Liverpool 86 109 104 +5 117
Everton 87 92 115 -23 99
Tottenham 87 107 146 -39 99
Man City 87 98 123 -25 93
This data doesn’t go back far enough to see the transition to Roman Abramovich at Chelsea. But you can see how the influx of money at Man City has recently put them into Top 4.
For me, the interesting thing is that over most of these summaries, there is no statistical difference between Chelsea (under Roman Abramovich) and Arsenal. Someone (here on Untold) has said that Chelsea, Man City (others) have received billions of Pounds Stirling. This tells me, that Arsène Wenger is worth billions of Pounds Stirling.
This is not trying to say that Arsenal haven’t had financial resources, or were not spending money for new players or existing player development. By all reliable (such as found on Untold) reports, Arsenal has been spending in a responsible manner. If Arsenal has been spending at 1/3 the rate of the Chelsea, ManCity or others, that means that the presence of Arsène Wenger at Arsenal is worth 2/3 of their spend rate!
Arsène Wenger is by far, the most valuable manager in all football!
@sorry for the lousy formatting, in equal sized characters, it looks fine. The columns are games played (which becomes more irrelevant as more years are summed into each other), goals for, goals against, goal difference and points (in the mini-league).
Nominally 7 years of data which show Arsenal and Chelsea to be equal, and you can see the rise of ManCity. But ManCity isn’t rising to a level above Arsenal or Chelsea, but nominally equal. But who knows what will happen in the future?
Among some educated guess as to who the top teams in the EPL _consistently_ are, we find Arsenal is there. At least over the last 7 and a bit years (sorry, I have a fence to design and didn’t go back further). And there seems to be some ManU factor going on (sorry, I don’t believe they are that much better than everyone else).
Lots of people, including top managers, speak about what it takes to be at the top: consistency. Our mini-league is showing how the most consistent teams (which means composed of the most consistent players) perform against each other.
The teams that are not at the top, do not lack for talent (in general). For the most part, what they lack is consistency. And if enough players on an inconsistent team have a good day, they can get a result against a top team.
What a person sort of expects, is that a draw among the top teams is the norm, and if one team wins, it is a single goal win. This is in the absence of other factors (such as the PGMOL).
When a top team plays a lower team, the top team is expected to win. But the lower team has more variability, and maybe the stars align better for them that day, and they win. And so, the better team doesn’t always win, there can be some luck involved (not that anybody ever doubted this, as otherwise there is no point in having a season).
When lower team plays lower team, the inconsistency rules, and the average result should again be a draw. But, as the variance is so large, extended runs of wins (or losses) happen. And that largely determines who get relegated, I think.
We are nominally 1/4 of the way through the season. Crystal palace is at 3 points. Extrapolate to 38 games in the stupidest way, and we guess Palace will end with 11 points. Has a relegated team ever finished that low?
Remember, what wins is consistency!!! We have a bunch of inconsistent teams in the middle/bottom of the pack. We also have 3 incoming teams. What did those 3 teams do, to become promoted? What have they done since being promoted?
I suspect they got promoted with a consistent team, and didn’t go on a buying spree on getting into the EPL, they will still be consistent. And I suspect that means they probably stay up.
But everything else is inconsistency against inconsistency, and it tends to become a crap shoot (random draw) as to how will get relegated.
But as the number of lost points rises, the inconsistent teams become more consistent, all in an effort to avoid relegation.
And with all that and (I think $2.50), I think I can buy a good coffee in Grande Prairie.
Tony, you should do a check of the blog roll for Arsenal sites on left side some of them are not that great.
like the first one…
Some interesting analysis Gord. And you rightly point out there are other factors such as refs which if taken into consideration make Arsenal’s achievements even more remarkable. Good arguments backed up by statistical data, and I like that it shows Wenger is worth more than a billion pounds; if you look at net spend alone Arsenal shouldn’t even be in the top 6!
Walter,
Based on historical data, who would be the fairest ref to have had for this game?
Chelsea have played Manu, Everton and Spurs away and picked up 2 pts. If we come away with 2 pts or more from those three games I’d be happy. I don’t think this table has any relevance whatsoever.
We have yet to play any top team away from home. That’ll change this weekend. There is no conspiracy against us from refs, why would there be? Nobody has yet delivered a reason why there should be, just exercised their rampant paranoia. Granted Ferguson certainly appeared to intimidate refs but he’s no longer there so this is our best chance to win at OT for years.
You state “there is no conspiricy against us from refs”
Yet on here, in black and white, are statistics that offer proof that there is. And whats more the statistics used to support this are assembled by NON Arsenal suporting, ex and current referees.
If you can produce equally convincing proof that there isn’t, as opposed to just your ‘opinion’ then maybe you wouldn’t just sound like another sad AAA on a mission.
You also ask “Why would there be”? Indeed why?
It is tricky to know exactly why, but, again Untold have published many theories on here of varying credibility. As you hover around this site like an unwelcome fart in a spacesuit I’m sure you’ve seen them, but as is your perogative you choose to ignore them.
Anyway, as you obviously have comletely diametricly opposed views to the mantra, mission statement, whatever you want to call it, of this site, Why are you here?
If I dont like Opera I dont go.
If I dont like cabbage I don’t eat it.
If I don’t like Whiskey I dont drink it.
You, Sir do not seem to like Arsenal very much and you certainly don’t like the views expressed on here by a vast majority of visitors so why are you here?
Ignorant Troll shit stirrer sums you up I think.
@Rupert Cook
‘Granted Ferguson certainly appeared to intimidate refs’
No Rupert, not appeared to, he actually did, Graham Poll has admitted as much in his recent newspaper article and of course Walters extensive work on referee decisions has confirmed the fact. Ferguson is still there as well, not as visible as he was, but no doubt just as influential lurking in the background.
@Rupert Cook
‘If we come away with 2 pts or more from those three games I’d be happy.’
Yeah right, I don’t think so.
Stuart, you murder me for my answer 😉 it is… Dowd.
As impossible that might seem but he was one of the few that dared to stand up against SAF. I think because of his age, SAF or Riley couldn’t do him any harm any more.
Interesting Walter.
You’d think (if they do actually carry out reviews of the refs as they claim), that in order to be fair, they would be sending him for this game and use this selection process for all games.
Ashley young diving again this eve have a feeling he will be playing against us this weekend
V pansie missed though mandy made it much sweeter lol
@Jambug, and you choose to believe there is a conspiracy because it adequately excuses Arsenal from coming up short every year. Do you seriously think the refs sit down and discuss ways of cheating Arsenal? If they did one of them would have broken ranks by now and admit it. It’s rather like one of these dumb theories about man not going to the moon even though there is proof to the contrary. And yes I’d like a reason for this nefarious behaviour, not theories, an actual undeniable reason.
The standard of refereeing is poor, of that there’s no doubt. There have been plenty of teams this season that have been denied obvious penalties. Perhaps there’s multiple conspiracies going on.
And I’m not on any mission or some member of some fabricated group. If Walter’s work improves refereeing in every game then I’m all for it, then it would benefit all, the fans, the teams and everyone else. And if we didn’t win every trophy after that at least it would stop people whinging about officials cheating us. Of course a new reason would then be invented why we don’t win a trophy every year.
The probable reasons for our stagnation since 2007 has been a mixture of billionaire clubs, poor player purchasing, financial mismanagement by which I mean paying average players crazy wages with the attendant problems, players unprepared to be patient with the teams’ progress jumping ship and any number of minor wrong decisions. Now we’ve got some financial clout Wenger has been brave and spent a vast sum on one player. A world class player. And it seems to have fired up the team like never before, at least not since the early 2000’s. Wenger has also found a great player in Ramsey who has outshone Ozil in many games and has another great player in Cazorla. So well done Wenger, now comes the hard part, winning a trophy.
I like Arsenal very much Jambug sunshine. I’ve liked them for over forty years and sometimes the thing you love can irritate you for many reasons. I expect that’s too complicated for you to understand seeing as you soon show your true colours by hurling insults.
@Mick, if we get a draw at Manu Id’ be very happy. Our recent performances there have been abject. Of course I’d prefer maximum points from all three games which is certainly possible.
@Jambug, and you choose to believe there is a conspiracy because it adequately excuses Arsenal from coming up short every year. Do you seriously think the refs sit down and discuss ways of cheating Arsenal? If they did one of them would have broken ranks by now and admit it. It’s rather like one of these dumb theories about man not going to the moon even though there is proof to the contrary. And yes I’d like a reason for this nefarious behaviour, not theories, an actual undeniable reason.
The standard of refereeing is poor, of that there’s no doubt. There have been plenty of teams this season that have been denied obvious penalties. Perhaps there’s multiple conspiracies going on.
And I’m not on any mission or some member of some fabricated group. If Walter’s work improves refereeing in every game then I’m all for it, then it would benefit all, the fans, the teams and everyone else. And if we didn’t win every trophy after that at least it would stop people whinging about officials cheating us. Of course a new reason would then be invented why we don’t win a trophy every year.
The probable reasons for our stagnation since 2007 has been a mixture of billionaire clubs, poor player purchasing, financial mismanagement by which I mean paying average players crazy wages with the attendant problems, players unprepared to be patient with the teams’ progress jumping ship and any number of minor wrong decisions. Now we’ve got some financial clout Wenger has been brave and spent a vast sum on one player. A world class player. And it seems to have fired up the team like never before, at least not since the early 2000’s. Wenger has also found a great player in Ramsey who has outshone Ozil in many games and has another great player in Cazorla. So well done Wenger, now comes the hard part, winning a trophy.
I like Arsenal very much Jambug sunshine. I’ve liked them for over forty years and sometimes the thing you love can irritate you for many reasons. I expect that’s too complicated for you to understand seeing as you soon show your true colours by hurling insults.
@Mick, if we get a draw at Manu Id’ be very happy. Our recent performances there have been abject. Of course I’d prefer maximum points from all three games which is certainly possible.
@Jambug, and you choose to believe there is a conspiracy because it adequately excuses Arsenal from coming up short every year. Do you seriously think the refs sit down and discuss ways of cheating Arsenal? If they did one of them would have broken ranks by now and admit it. It’s rather like one of these dumb theories about man not going to the moon even though there is proof to the contrary. And yes I’d like a reason for this nefarious behaviour, not theories, an actual undeniable reason.
The standard of refereeing is poor, of that there’s no doubt. There have been plenty of teams this season that have been denied obvious penalties. Perhaps there’s multiple conspiracies going on.
And I’m not on any mission or some member of some fabricated group. If Walter’s work improves refereeing in every game then I’m all for it, then it would benefit all, the fans, the teams and everyone else. And if we didn’t win every trophy after that at least it would stop people whinging about officials cheating us. Of course a new reason would then be invented why we don’t win a trophy every year.
The probable reasons for our stagnation since 2007 has been a mixture of billionaire clubs, poor player purchasing, financial mismanagement by which I mean paying average players crazy wages with the attendant problems, players unprepared to be patient with the teams’ progress jumping ship and any number of minor wrong decisions. Now we’ve got some financial clout Wenger has been brave and spent a vast sum on one player. A world class player. And it seems to have fired up the team like never before, at least not since the early 2000’s. Wenger has also found a great player in Ramsey who has outshone Ozil in many games and has another great player in Cazorla. So well done Wenger, now comes the hard part, winning a trophy.
I like Arsenal very much Jambug sunshine. I’ve liked them for over forty years and sometimes the thing you love can irritate you for many reasons. I expect that’s too complicated for you to understand seeing as you soon show your true colours by hurling insults.
@Mick, if we get a draw at Manu Id’ be very happy. Our recent performances there have been abject. Of course I’d prefer maximum points from all three games which is certainly possible.
That wasn’t meant to come out in triplicate. Talk about over-emphasizing.
@rupert (depressive AAA sewer rat who likes to re-write history)
“There is no conspiracy against us from refs, why would there be?”
Before you do any more rambling why don’t you substantiate your claim. You obviously do not read or understand or choose not to accept the ref reviews and the vast volume of evidence which indicates there is an anti Arsenal agenda. I would suggest you do not watch matches yourself and are then not in a position to make any judgement on the refereeing. You have been known to comment on matches that you have not seen. But lets have the evidence to back up your claim.
In your response to jambug you do the usual – you bleat because you do not like being put in your place, you claim you are insulted – but little rat – you obviously consider it is OK for you to slyly knife the team and manager in the back – and at the same time claim that you like Arsenal very much.
What a useless troll you are.
bjtgooner you will get a better conversation talking to a brick wall than R cook. Ignorance is bliss save you stress you’ll never beat an idiot at his own game! 😉