By Tony Attwood
According to the general view, what is happening at Chelsea is a quirk, an oddity, a one-off. Normal service resumes soon. Chelsea have spent over £700,000,000 on transfer fees and had undoubted success both in Europe and at home, including of course being the current champions of England. And they are having a bad time. The general view is, it will end soon and they will scamper up the table, or they will bring in a new manager and they will scamper up the table, or they will buy a lot more referees and scamper… well you get the point. By and large it involves rising back up the table.
But slowly an alternative view is being expressed. A view that remembers that even when Man U were by far the richest team in the country, they were relegated. Indeed if you have been following the series on the Arsenal History site about Arsenal in the 1970s you will be aware of it as we published the league table for December 1972 this week. Man U were very much bottom.
Money, to everyone’s utter surprise, doesn’t buy success. It can help, that is true, but it doesn’t buy success automatically. If it did Man City would be so far ahead of everyone else in the league it wouldn’t be worth playing.
Of course there are other sides of the coin. In the 1972/3 season that we are covering at the moment on the history site Norwich powered their way to the upper echelons and beat Arsenal twice at Highbury in one season, once in the league cup 0-3, and once in the league 2-3. After Christmas however it all went a bit wrong, and in the end they only just avoiding relegation. Arsenal on the other hand came second.
As you may recall we’ve been publishing the league tables this season with details of how much money each team spent this last summer and how much they have spent over the past five years (in both cases reporting just the nett spend to give a fairer picture). Spending money can help, but is absolutely no guarantee of success.
This season even some of the more lunatic newspapers have recognised that spending money isn’t everything – the Independent today for example examines “How the 11 forwards let go by Louis van Gaal are currently performing” and finds that some of the flops at Man U are doing rather well, while others clearly were never any good in the first place. There is also talk about how Schweinsteiger wasn’t worth the money. Good job all that stuff about us buying him wasn’t true then.
The Mail today goes another way with the headline, “Why elite clubs like Manchester United and Liverpool look at Chelsea and shudder: ‘It could be us next’.”
They don’t mention the incredible achievement of Arsenal in staying at the top for so long – both in terms of being a first division club since 1919 when the league was expanded, and in terms of the years and years of being in the top four in England.
But they do report that Manchester United made it into the top two for eight years running and then ended up seventh. Liverpool have finished sixth or lower in five of the last six seasons. Chelsea finished outside the top two just once in eight seasons, then came sixth. But no contrast with Arsenal. Funny that.
If there is anything to be learned from this it is that momentum is important – being there, staying there. However a slip can happen any time; Arsenal are the oddities in all this, keeping the run going for so long – and of course building a stadium and paying for it out of their own money, while doing so.
But this is not quite the same as the position of Leicester. They are doing better than Norwich in 1972/3, but the point about Leicester is that over the years other clubs have pushed their way into the top four for a while, only to come unstuck near the end.
Just look at this league table from 9 December 2000
| P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | ||
| 1 | Manchester United | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 44 | 13 | +31 | 40 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 34 |
| 3 | Leicester City | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 29 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 29 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 27 |
Leicester were third, and yes a fair way off the lead, but even so, this was Leicester up there with the big boys, above Liverpool who in those days were still considered to be an important club. Leicester finished the season in 13th.
That season Ipswich finished fifth and were talking all about Europe. The following season they were relegated. Last season Southampton were being talked about as Champions League contenders, and even this season we have had a lot of talk (now safely pushed under the carpet) about West Ham breaking into the top four.
So when the Mail says, “The new threat comes from a rump of previously middle or low-ranking Premier League clubs,” they are talking through their arses as usual. This isn’t a new scenario.
They go on, “Leicester, West Ham, Everton, Crystal Palace, Stoke City — not league winners, maybe, but capable of claiming one of the Champions League places? Why not?”
The answer is because they don’t have the long term continuity of success and they don’t have the in-depth resources of youth players, a solid set of reserves and the experience of facing the pressure near the end of the season.
In 2013/14 it was Liverpool who broke into the top four and Everton who came fifth. In 2012/13 West Brom were fifth in December. Yes it is true none of these clubs were actually top like Leicester, but they all suffered in the same way. They have money – lots of money in fact because of the TV deals – but not as much as the big clubs. And they don’t have the experience.
Leicester now play Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Manchester City and if they are still in the top two after that I will have to reconsider, but I don’t think the evidence is there yet.
There is also the point about where Leicester are in the injury league
| # | TEAM | TOTAL INJURIES |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United | 10 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 9 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 9 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 7 |
| 5 | Manchester City | 7 |
| 6 | Everton | 6 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 6 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 5 |
| 9 | West Ham United | 5 |
| 10 | Southampton | 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 |
| 12 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 |
| 13 | Chelsea | 3 |
| 14 | Stoke City | 3 |
| 15 | Watford | 3 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 2 |
| 17 | Leicester City | 2 |
| 18 | Norwich City | 2 |
| 19 | Swansea City | 2 |
| 20 | West Bromwich Albion | 2 |
Yes, some clubs do go through the whole season with a low score – but not many, and those injuries can come at any time. Man U have a lot at the moment – and the Independent with its “players that United let go” story is being misleading as usual. You can only make a guess at how many players you will have out of the team at any one time, and which players they will be. You can’t buy a series of replica squads just in case. Players just won’t come on an “in case someone gets injured” basis.
It does however raise the question of who to support when Leicester play Chelsea. I still think Leicester will slip up in 2016 and so I’m supporting anyone who can give Chelsea yet another knock about. Chelsea’s approach to refereeing, to the loan system, to stewarding, to racism, and just about anything else, makes me support anyone against them – except Man City where in my most evil moments I hope for a riot by players and the sort of punishment that the League thought it a good idea to dish out to Arsenal in the Graham era for a bit of pushing and shoving. Failing that a series of non-life threatening injuries and a 0-0 draw.
The Daily Mail has however done me a good turn, by saving me the trouble of looking up one set of data. It tells us, “Over the last 10 years of the Premier League, the highest finish of any team residing in 14th place on December 8 has been 10th.”
This accords with the story we ran a couple of months ago, looking at how the table after a quarter of the season relates to the final table over the last few years. A few clubs move more than a couple of positions – but not many. Taking that same approach (blimey did they read our piece???) the Mail does the same analysis for their one selected season: “three teams rose to 10th, one came 12th, the rest dropped lower, two were relegated.”
And there is that old Untold point – that just because team A wants a player team B doesn’t have to sell him. It happened to Chelsea in the summer and they were rather surprised that Everton didn’t have a breaking point. Turns out all they had to do (and WBA did the same) is tell the agent to go away and play with some other toys.
If there is a shift in things happening it is that. I am not so sure that the rise of Leicester is a shift in power, but the collapse of Chelsea might make a few money mad owners think again.
The Untold Books
Woolwich Arsenal the club that changed football, is now available on Kindle at £9.99. For more details and to buy a copyplease click here or go to Amazon Kindle and search forWoolwich Arsenal.
- Woolwich Arsenal: The club that changed football – Arsenal’s early years
- Making the Arsenal – how the modern Arsenal was born in 1910
- The Crowd at Woolwich Arsenal
Forthcoming titles:
- The Arsenal Yankee By Danny Karbassiyoon
- Arsenal: The Long Sleep 1953-1970. By John Sowman. Introduction by Bob Wilson.
Anniversaries
9 December 1975: Arsenal 2 Feyenoord 1 Peter Storey Testimonial. It is said that the follow-up celebration in Storey’s pub lasted two days and included a range of interesting guests.
9 December 2011: Arsenal History Society’s suggestion made to Arsenal CEO Ivan Gazidis in a discussion on Arsenalisation finally came to life: the first three statues were unveiled including the requested statue of Chapman facing the ground from the south bridge.
Recent Posts
- Inter Milan v Arsenal: the Champions League mess, rising fast, and past results
- Inter v Arsenal: 8pm, 6 November. This looks tough.
- Edu to Forest, just as we were noting their figures were misleading
- Arsenal, injuries, and the curious rise of the Forest
- Arsenal in decline… or is this not just a re-run of recent seasons?
Tony, you make two great points.
1. The media and the AW haters always have 20/20 hindsight: AW should have signed Schneiderlein, Schweinsteiger, Kondogbia etc to cover for Coquelin; Benzema, Higuain etc to cover for forward injuries and so on. They also have bottomless pockets and zero experience of actually coaching the best out a diverse set of individuals.
2. For a Leicester, Palace, Stoke or Tottenham to win the EPL their players have to cope with and conquer the pressure ratcheting up game-by-game up to the end of the season. And this is often a time when key injuries happen.
Having said that, the new TV money will enable formerly mid table clubs to sign better and better players , levelling out the playing field.
We have a good chance to win the EPL this season, and can look forward to some key players returning after Christmas
COYG
I quote:
”if you have been following the series on the Arsenal History site about Arsenal in the 1970s you will be aware of it as we published the league table for December 1972 this week. Man U were very much bottom.”
That is where manure belongs at the bottom!
Tony, good piece.
Barry, well said.
This all goes back to the FFM – Fantasy Football Managers with their degrees in hindsight.
Spend some fking money……….! (and we’ll win everything!!)
Chelsea and Man City have invested over a billion quid on players, not money generated by the club. Chelsea may have won the Premier League somehow last season but they also lost at Home to Bradford in the FA CUP and fell away at the end of the season. This season, their managers win at all cost attitude led to an on/off field bust up with their medical team when Hazard was wasting time. Chelsea are now 3 points off relegation after a third of the season has been played. Despite the investment, they dont have world class players to come in and replace, world class players.
Man City, despite their investment, failed to win the PL last season and struggle to win games when their key players are missing. Without Kompany and Aguero they are a fraction of the team and yet even they cannot have two world class players for every position, despiet the investment.
Man Utd changed Manager and the wheels fell off. Failing to finish in the top 4, out of the cuups early and playing a brand of football that only Chelsea can emulate – boring. They decided the way out of this malaise was to sell players they didnt deem good enough and spend heaviliy on ‘proven’ quality. A £20m loan deal for Falcao, £60m on Di Maria, £30m Herrera etc. The result was a struggle to finsih 4th. So desperate for a striker (and so few available) they payed nearly £40m for Martial.
Meanwhile, over in North London, a team avoids buying the players the FFM want and follows a path of stability. Two world class players are signed but the balance of the side remains consistent. Two FA Cups arrive on the back of this and Champions League qualification is assured. Another world class player is added in Petr Cech.
Yet despite the evidence before them, it is assumed that Arsenals key to success is sacking the manager and buying loads of players. In fact, the real irony is that those who have signed up to be a WOB, actually discredit their entire argument by claiming we only need two players without reflecting on who actually built the team we have now, which is ‘two’ players away? Two players, against teams who have spent ridiculous amounts of money compared to us.
Why is it only Arsenal who should have ‘two’ world class players for every position? Man City struggle when they lose Aguero and Kompany far more than when we lose half the team! Have Cheslea been able to replace their key players when injured or out of form? Costa? Cesc? Hazard? Aguero, Kompany, Rooney etc
Why is it only Arsenal for whom it is expected any player they sign will improve the team and play at a world class level, without risk of flopping? Di Maria, Falcao, Balotelli, Schnederlein, Schweinsteiger, etc
Why is it only Arsenal who injure their ‘own players’ or play players when they ought not? Aguero has a repeating issue with his hamstring, Kompany is struggling, Rooney over played etc
It seems to me that Arsenal are the only team that gets criticised for everything: Despite all these negatives, somehow the Manager keeps the team at a consistent level, helps finance a new training facility and a stadium,has to sell his best players yet finished top 4 EVERY season. He has never been able to spend £300 – £950m, yet he’s expected to compete with those that do/have, win titles, suffer no major injuries and have two world class players for every position. Who else could do that?
Step Forward Mr Peter Wood from London. You are clearly an exceptional football manager who any team in the world would want to appoint. Give us a call after your next Marketing pitch or when you’ve finished on the Xbox and give us a call. Thank you. Ivan Gazidis, Arsenal Football Club.
and bring in new ones. Net spend of around £300m.
On the subject of liking and disliking teams opposed to Chelsea, I’m afraid our Night of Infamy against Man Utd is still sufficiently raw in my memory, that I would favour ANY club against the GBH experts of Manchester. 😉
Yes there is going to be a lot more cash in the EPL and that will mean that clubs that finish in the middle of the league will have more ‘cash to splash’.
Just because there is more money available to buy better players, does it mean there are better players available?
As this and former articles have pointed out for all the ‘splashing out on players by the likes of mancs, manure, cescski it has not meant better football. None of them are ‘running away with the league’ and many of the ‘media must by player’ has been bought by these clubs and other clubs and the player has failed.
So much so that I heard one moron pundit on the BBC on Monday night say: ‘spending big money on players doesn’t guarantee success.’
However spending only £8 million on an international goal keeper is an inspiring purchase. Yet another season when Arsene has outwitted the media and every Britain who thinks they know better than Arsene when it comes to football transfers.
off topic : the passing away of 90 years old Ernie Crouch has even made the media in Belgium. An article in the newspaper and it even got mentioned on TV when they talked about the storm that raged over the UK last weekend.
Yes, Colario, as Bob Wilson says on arsenal.com, the most experienced and best all round goalkeeper in the world. And he’s ours!
So much for the pundits moronic claim: ‘Arsene doesn’t do defense’.
Walter.
The manner in which Ernie’s life was taken is probably what has upset so many people.
A man in his 90’s going to watch the team he loves when he freak wind blows him under the wheels of a bus. Tragic.
This man was a proper supporter, one that very few people can compare themselves to. I find a lot of what we see from the negative Arsenal fans as an absolute insult to blokes like Ernie.
I am saddened by his passing and especially the nature of it. I watched Arsenal Fan TV and found myself choked up listening to those who knew him speaking so well of him.
Football is a sport, a game of fun for us to derive huge pleasure. Sad events like this should make a lot of people take a very large dose of perspective and reality.
I hope Arsenal Football Club do something to honour this great man; I am sure they will.
Walter and Proudkev,
I have drafted my ref preview for Sunday and started with a brief mention of Ernie’s death. I too was shocked when I realised that he was the person killed in this tragic way. The main story was covered in the London news on Saturday but it was only a couple of days later that his Arsenal connection was made public.
I met Ernie’s only once, at the recent Ladies Continental Cup final when we were on the same coach for the journey to and from the game and I thought it remarkable that he was still travelling to games. He was somewhat frail and couldn’t walk that freely but was in great spirits.
An inspiring person for all followers of Arsenal and someone who has seen it all since 1934. I just hope he can now exert a little influence when we need it most.
On another matter the U19 game v Olympiacos is being shown live this afternoon on BT Sport Europe starting at 16:00 before the first team game starting at 19:00.
COYG
Thanks for letting this know Andrew! Should be able to find a stream then I hope!
“Yet despite the evidence before them, it is assumed that Arsenals key to success is sacking the manager and buying loads of players.”
Proudkev
Over the years of mine going to Arsenal home games( on average three times a season), I have sat all over the stadium , since I’m not a season ticket holder. Every time I go ,I get there early and leave late, which gives me an opportunity to talk to other fans and supporters sitting nearby.
Not a single person I have ever spoken to on the subject of Arsenal chances, player recruitment or managerial appointment, shared the sentiments you are expressing in your passage.
My suggestion to you is to stop visiting LeGrove comment section.
It warps your perception of Arsenal fandom.
From my personal experience over the last ten years or so, the overwhelming majority of Arsenal fans( and virtually everyone I have ever talked to in the stadium) still support Arsene Wenger and don’t think wholesale changes are required, but rather selective additions here and there.
Precisely that Tom .Throughout time teams that were dynastic always freshened their squads, not necessarily with superstar quality but with players that plugged the little gaps in their lineups. That is all most of us wanted just to support the existing squad with a bit more depth.
@Tom, very well said. I don’t think the majority of Arsenal fans want the manager marched out the door or for us to spend every penny we’ve got but a couple of additions would probably enliven the team. I know it’s easy to slag off Schweinsteiger, Di Maria, Falcao etc. but perhaps under Wenger these players would have flourished. Sometimes players just don’t work well under certain managers. Jeffers did very little at Arsenal and Gervinho shone after he left. One can never know the reason why fortunes change.
As for spending money and success the very fact that you’re tipping Leicester to collapse seems to undermine your point. The fact that they aren’t as rich as many PL teams will inhibit them, you suggest. Very likely and we’ll see just what they’re made of in the next four or five games. I hope Chelsea do get relegated but I doubt that’ll happen but I’ll take great pleasure in seeing them finish out of the CL places but money does equal success, City, Chelsea and Manu have all won the league in the last ten years and only City have failed miserably in Europe. The season Chelsea is having is rare, enjoy it while you can.