By Bulldog Drummond
Having predicted the England score correctly for the nation’s first World Cup match in the finals, I am emboldened to try it again, using the very simple system we’ve used over the last couple of seasons of looking at runs of results.
All runs come to an end of course, so the system is far from perfect, but it has worked quite well in the past in the league, so here we go.
This match is made harder because there is no history between England and Panama in terms of football matches, so our prime evidence has to be recent matches.
With this list I am going back further than normal to include all the games in the last year, in order to incorporate Panama’s World Cup matches, and also because we don’t have that head to head evidence.
|03 Sep 2016||Panama v Jamaica||W||2-0||FIFA World Cup|
|07 Sep 2016||Costa Rica v Panama||L||3-1||FIFA World Cup|
|12 Oct 2016||Panama v Mexico||L||0-1||International Friendly|
|11 Nov 2016||Honduras v Panama||W||0-1||FIFA World Cup|
|16 Nov 2016||Panama v Mexico||D||0-0||FIFA World Cup|
|14 Jan 2017||Panama v Belize||D||0-0||Copa Centroamericana|
|15 Jan 2017||Panama v Nicaragua||W||2-1||International Friendly|
|17 Jan 2017||Panama v Honduras||L||0-1||International Friendly|
|20 Jan 2017||Panama v El Salvador||W||1-0||International Friendly|
|22 Jan 2017||Panama v Costa Rica||W||1-0||Copa Centroamericana|
|24 Mar 2017||Trinidad and Tobago v Panama||L||1-0||FIFA World Cup|
|28 Mar 2017||Panama v USA||D||1-1||FIFA World Cup|
|08 Jun 2017||Costa Rica v Panama||D||0-0||FIFA World Cup|
|14 Jun 2017||Panama v Honduras||D||2-2||FIFA World Cup|
Going through that list what we find is victories against other small nations and most notably draws against USA and Mexico.
And now 2017/18
|08 Jul 2017||USA v Panama||D||1-1||CONCACAF Gold Cup|
|12 Jul 2017||Panama v Nicaragua||W||2-1||CONCACAF Gold Cup|
|15 Jul 2017||Panama v Martinique||W||3-0||CONCACAF Gold Cup|
|19 Jul 2017||Costa Rica v Panama||L||1-0||CONCACAF Gold Cup|
|02 Sep 2017||Mexico v Panama||L||1-0||FIFA World Cup|
|05 Sep 2017||Panama v Trinidad and Tobago||W||3-0||FIFA World Cup|
|06 Oct 2017||USA v Panama||L||4-0||FIFA World Cup|
|10 Oct 2017||Panama v Costa Rica||W||2-1||FIFA World Cup|
|24 Oct 2017||Grenada v Panama||W||0-5||International Friendly|
|09 Nov 2017||Iran v Panama||L||2-1||International Friendly|
|14 Nov 2017||Wales v Panama||D||1-1||International Friendly|
|22 Mar 2018||Denmark v Panama||L||1-0||International Friendly|
|27 Mar 2018||Switzerland v Panama||L||6-0||International Friendly|
|18 Apr 2018||Trinidad and Tobago v Panama||W||0-1||International Friendly|
|30 May 2018||Panama v Northern Ireland||D||0-0||International Friendly|
|06 Jun 2018||Norway v Panama||L||1-0||International Friendly|
|18 Jun 2018||Belgium v Panama||L||3-0||FIFA World Cup|
And so again, draws where they can get them, but mostly defeats. Switzerland got six, Belgium three.
So to England’s record
|01 Sep 2017||Malta v England||W||0-4||FIFA World Cup|
|04 Sep 2017||England v Slovakia||W||2-1||FIFA World Cup|
|05 Oct 2017||England v Slovenia||W||1-0||FIFA World Cup|
|08 Oct 2017||Lithuania v England||W||0-1||FIFA World Cup|
|10 Nov 2017||England v Germany||D||0-0||International Friendly|
|14 Nov 2017||England v Brazil||D||0-0||International Friendly|
|23 Mar 2018||Netherlands v England||W||0-1||International Friendly|
|27 Mar 2018||England v Italy||D||1-1||International Friendly|
|02 Jun 2018||England v Nigeria||W||2-1||International Friendly|
|07 Jun 2018||England v Costa Rica||W||2-0||International Friendly|
|18 Jun 2018||Tunisia v England||W||1-2||FIFA World Cup|
England hasn’t scored more than two in ten games, but their four against Malta suggests they can against weaker opposition.
Panama in their last eight games have scored one goal three times and zero goals five times.
This leads me to believe the most likely score is zero for Panama and three or four for England. If you are betting on the score I would go with 4-0 with a side bet on 3-0. You could of course invest part of your winnings from the last match if you followed my advice there.
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