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England v Panama. Can the Untold system predict the score

By Bulldog Drummond

Having predicted the England score correctly for the nation’s first World Cup match in the finals, I am emboldened to try it again, using the very simple system we’ve used over the last couple of seasons of looking at runs of results.

All runs come to an end of course, so the system is far from perfect, but it has worked quite well in the past in the league, so here we go.

This match is made harder because there is no history between England and Panama in terms of football matches, so our prime evidence has to be recent matches.

With this list I am going back further than normal to include all the games in the last year, in order to incorporate Panama’s  World Cup matches, and also because we don’t have that head to head evidence.

2016/2017

Date Match Res Score Competition
03 Sep 2016 Panama v Jamaica W 2-0 FIFA World Cup
07 Sep 2016 Costa Rica v Panama L 3-1 FIFA World Cup
12 Oct 2016 Panama v Mexico L 0-1 International Friendly
11 Nov 2016 Honduras v Panama W 0-1 FIFA World Cup
16 Nov 2016 Panama v Mexico D 0-0 FIFA World Cup
14 Jan 2017 Panama v Belize D 0-0 Copa Centroamericana
15 Jan 2017 Panama v Nicaragua W 2-1 International Friendly
17 Jan 2017 Panama v Honduras L 0-1 International Friendly
20 Jan 2017 Panama v El Salvador W 1-0 International Friendly
22 Jan 2017 Panama v Costa Rica W 1-0 Copa Centroamericana
24 Mar 2017 Trinidad and Tobago v Panama L 1-0 FIFA World Cup
28 Mar 2017 Panama v USA D 1-1 FIFA World Cup
08 Jun 2017 Costa Rica v Panama D 0-0 FIFA World Cup
14 Jun 2017 Panama v Honduras D 2-2 FIFA World Cup

Going through that list what we find is victories against other small nations and most notably draws against USA and Mexico.

And now 2017/18

Date Match Result Score Competition
08 Jul 2017 USA v Panama D 1-1 CONCACAF Gold Cup
12 Jul 2017 Panama v Nicaragua W 2-1 CONCACAF Gold Cup
15 Jul 2017 Panama v Martinique W 3-0 CONCACAF Gold Cup
19 Jul 2017 Costa Rica v Panama L 1-0 CONCACAF Gold Cup
02 Sep 2017 Mexico v Panama L 1-0 FIFA World Cup
05 Sep 2017 Panama v Trinidad and Tobago W 3-0 FIFA World Cup
06 Oct 2017 USA v Panama L 4-0 FIFA World Cup
10 Oct 2017 Panama v Costa Rica W 2-1 FIFA World Cup
24 Oct 2017 Grenada v Panama W 0-5 International Friendly
09 Nov 2017 Iran v Panama L 2-1 International Friendly
14 Nov 2017 Wales v Panama D 1-1 International Friendly
22 Mar 2018 Denmark v Panama L 1-0 International Friendly
27 Mar 2018 Switzerland v Panama L 6-0 International Friendly
18 Apr 2018 Trinidad and Tobago v Panama W 0-1 International Friendly
30 May 2018 Panama v Northern Ireland D 0-0 International Friendly
06 Jun 2018 Norway v Panama L 1-0 International Friendly
18 Jun 2018 Belgium v Panama L 3-0 FIFA World Cup

And so again, draws where they can get them, but mostly defeats.  Switzerland got six, Belgium three.

So to England’s record

Date Match Res Score Competition
01 Sep 2017 Malta v England W 0-4 FIFA World Cup
04 Sep 2017 England v Slovakia W 2-1 FIFA World Cup
05 Oct 2017 England v Slovenia W 1-0 FIFA World Cup
08 Oct 2017 Lithuania v England W 0-1 FIFA World Cup
10 Nov 2017 England v Germany D 0-0 International Friendly
14 Nov 2017 England v Brazil D 0-0 International Friendly
23 Mar 2018 Netherlands v England W 0-1 International Friendly
27 Mar 2018 England v Italy D 1-1 International Friendly
02 Jun 2018 England v Nigeria W 2-1 International Friendly
07 Jun 2018 England v Costa Rica W 2-0 International Friendly
18 Jun 2018 Tunisia v England W 1-2 FIFA World Cup

England hasn’t scored more than two in ten games, but their four against Malta suggests they can against weaker opposition.

Panama in their last eight games have scored one goal three times and zero goals five times.

This leads me to believe the most likely score is zero for Panama and three or four for England.  If you are betting on the score I would go with 4-0 with a side bet on 3-0.  You could of course invest part of your winnings from the last match if you followed my advice there.

 

 

 

 

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