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Arsenal v Wolverhampton: the form, predicting the score, and the last time we played them

By Bulldog Drummond

As we saw against Crystal Palace analayses of home and away team performances don’t give an exact indication of how a match will go, but over time we have found they are one of the very  best ways of making predicitons, and are more often right than wrong.

So despite the failure to predict a draw against Palace (I went firmly for an away win) I’m staying with the home/away charts.

Here is the league table as it would look just taking into account away form.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 7 6 0 1 14 6 8 18
2 Liverpool 6 4 2 0 9 4 5 14
3 Chelsea 5 4 1 0 12 1 11 13
4 Manchester City 5 3 2 0 9 1 8 11
5 Arsenal 5 3 1 1 14 9 5 10
6 Manchester United 6 3 1 2 11 10 1 10
7 AFC Bournemouth 5 3 0 2 9 7 2 9
8 Leicester City 6 3 0 3 9 10 -1 9
9 Watford 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 5 2 1 2 3 4 -1 7

Wolverhampton are middle of the table away from home – but with a poor scoring record – just three scored and four conceded in their five away games.  In fact only Cardiff has scored fewer away goals than Wolverhampton – just the two.

Incidentally, although it doesn’t affect today’s game Arsenal are now the top scoring team away from home.  Which is good news if you are taking our pre-season prediction that Arsenal will finish up third or fourth, and achieve it by taking their away form back to the normal levels of the “Fourth is not a trophy” seasons.

If we compare these figures with Arsenal’s home form we find an interesting contrast

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 6 6 0 0 24 3 21 18
2 Chelsea 6 4 2 0 15 7 8 14
3 Liverpool 5 4 1 0 12 1 11 13
4 Everton 6 4 1 1 12 6 6 13
5 Arsenal 6 4 1 1 11 5 6 13
6 Watford 6 4 0 2 10 8 2 12
7 AFC Bournemouth 6 3 2 1 11 7 4 11
8 Brighton and Hove Albion 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
9 Manchester United 5 3 1 1 8 8 0 10
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8

At home and away are records are similar but we’ve actually scored more goals away from home than at home.

But for the purpose of the contrast between home and away, our home goal scoring is 11-5 and Wolverhampton’s away goal scoring is 3-4.  2-0 would seem the obvious prediction for this game.

We have actually played Wolverhampton eight times in the Premier League era, and our record is won seven, drawn one, lost nil.   We have scored 19 goals and they have scored three against us.   That sort of record could edge us towards 3-0 rather than 2-0.

The first ever game against them was in 1904 (we won 2-0, playing at Plumstead), and just because I like lists, here is the list of games between the two clubs since they last beat us.

Date Game Res Score Competition
29 Sep 1979 Arsenal v Wolverhampton L 2-3 Division One
16 May 1980 Wolverhampton v Arsenal W 1-2 Division One
06 Dec 1980 Arsenal v Wolverhampton D 1-1 Division One
25 Apr 1981 Wolverhampton v Arsenal W 1-2 Division One
02 Feb 1982 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 2-1 Division One
03 Apr 1982 Wolverhampton v Arsenal D 1-1 Division One
29 Aug 1983 Wolverhampton v Arsenal W 1-2 Division One
24 Mar 1984 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 4-1 Division One
05 Apr 1998 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 1-0 FA Cup
24 Jan 1999 Wolverhampton v Arsenal W 1-2 FA Cup
02 Dec 2003 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 5-1 League Cup
26 Dec 2003 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 3-0 Premier League
07 Feb 2004 Wolverhamptonv Arsenal W 1-3 Premier League
29 Jan 2005 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 2-0 FA Cup
07 Nov 2009 Wolverhampton v Arsenal W 1-4 Premier League
03 Apr 2010 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 1-0 Premier League
10 Nov 2010 Wolverhampton v Arsenal W 0-2 Premier League
12 Feb 2011 Arsenal v Wolverhampton W 2-0 Premier League
27 Dec 2011 Arsenal v Wolverhampton D 1-1 Premier League
11 Apr 2012 Wolverhampton  v Arsenal W 0-3 Premier League
So 13 wins and one draw in the last 14.  And to round this bit of the sequence off, here’s what the BBC and Mr Wenger said about things the last time we played them…

“Early goals from Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott earned Arsenal victory over 10-man Wolves in a game that was largely decided within 11 minutes.   Sebastien Bassong saw red for bringing down Walcott, with Van Persie dinking the penalty over Wayne Hennessey. Walcott then played a neat one-two before shooting low into the net.

“Wolves went closest when Wojciech Szczesny saved Kevin Doyle’s header after the break, but Yossi Benayoun then converted to seal the win.    The hosts brought centre-back Christophe Berra on to replace midfielder David Davis between the two early goals, in response to Bassong’s dismissal.

“But such is the mood at bottom-of-the-table Wolves that the crowd greeted the substitution by directing choruses of “you don’t know what you’re doing” at boss Terry Connor, no matter that Berra saw a header deflected just wide from a corner soon after.

“The defeat was the seventh on the trot for the hosts, who stay six points behind 19th-placed Blackburn and nine points from safety with five games left.   For Arsenal, whose fine end-of-season form continues, the result keeps them third and moves them five points ahead of fourth-placed Tottenham.”

RVPs penalty was his 33rd of the season, and his 45th in 50 PL games.

After the game Mr Wenger said, “It is important for a striker, even like Robin van Persie who was not used to not scoring in the season, to find the net.    He equalled the record of Ian Wright who scored against 17 different teams out of 19 in the Premier League.

“That is absolutely remarkable in the modern game to be able to do that. I’d like to congratulate him on that.   It was overall a fantastic win. I’m very happy to be in this position but also very cautious as some teams were in the position we are in now before.”

 

 

8 comments to Arsenal v Wolverhampton: the form, predicting the score, and the last time we played them

  • Barry

    Just seen comments from TalkSprout’s Adriana Dummkopf about Aubamayeng winning October Player of the Month Award.

    Apparently he only won because all the media love Arsenal!! Ha ha

    My cat knows more about football than him.
    But seriously his employers should get his health checked out, because his deranged ranting is unprofessional and deluded. He makes Robbie Savage look like a professional broadcaster.
    COYG

  • WalterBroeckx

    Reiss Nelson once again being important for Hoffenheim scoring the winning goal

  • GoingGoingGooner

    He didn’t have much to do…but he did it!

  • GoingGoingGooner

    Walter…curious, earlier in the match a Hoffenheim player was brought down just outside the box near the touchline, but was able to get the cross in. The cross was a good one, but the header was tipped over by the keeper. Then, the referee brought back the ball to the place of the foul, gave a yellow to Augsuburg and gave Hoffenheim a free kick. Could you explain this? Isn’t this double jeopardy for Augsburg?

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    I can see that in the Arsenal 2003/04 unbeaten season run in the PL wolves beat us in the FA Cup. And they’ve a 7 game losing run before. But is it in the first-division or in the Premier League?

    Anyway, aside with the records. Normally, Arsenal should beat Wolves tomorrow at the Ems in the PL.

    There are 7 first team Gunners who were rested for our last home match against Sporting CP. They are: Leno, Bellerin, Mustafi, Xhaka, Torreira, Ozil and Lacazette. I suppose all these 7 Gunners will start the match against Wolves if nothing has happened to any of them. What is required now is for Emery to figure out who are the 4 Gunners that started/played in the Sporting match that are still at 100% energy level to start the Wolves match and start them alongside the 7 he rested for the Sporting match last Thursday night.

    Let me in my ignorance guess Emery’s starting XI and the 7 Gunners he’ll have on bench for the match and the playing style I want him to choose for the Gunners to play against Wolves.

    Playing style: 5-4-1. But has the Gunners under Emery ever played it? I think they should use the style to play against Wolves. I believe it’ll yield a positive result for Arsenal in the match.

    Starts:
    Leno;
    Bellerin Mustafi Holding Sokratis AMN;
    Ozil Torreira Xhaka Aubameyang;
    Lacazette.

    In the match, Bellerin and AMN are full-backs/wing-backs. While Torreira and Xhaka are DMs but will join the midfield fray to cover and to provide assist when Ozil and Auba’ launch attacks into the final 3rd of the Wolves’ half.

    Laca’ leads the line of course for Arsenal but he could exchange position a times with Auba’ during the game. I means he goes to the left side while Auba’ moves to the center. Ozil can also interchange position with Laca’ or Auba’ in the centerforwad position by moving there to pounce on any goals scoring opportunities while Laca’ moves to the right side to operate from there, all to confuse the opposition defending in the game.

    Bench:
    Cech Jenkinson Pleguezuelo Kolasinac Guendouzi Ramsey/Mkhitaryan Iwobi.

    Who has the most energy remain between Ramsey and Mkhi’ should be on the bench.

  • Menace

    Advantage is subjective and the referee can bring play back if he deemed there was no advantage gained. The PGMOL give advantage to Arsenals opponents all the time, even when it is given to Arsenal it usually is disadvantageous.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Crystal Palace 0-1 Tottenham Hotspur @FT has told Arsenal what? It has told them not to make the mistake about it by not beating Wolves tomorrow. But beat them to remain 2 points behind Spurs in the table going into the international break. But not beating Wolves tomorrow will leave Arsenal with much top four finish catch up work on their hands to do against their top 5 rival clubs after the break. Therefore, Arsenal should play with complete discipline tomorrow to enabled them beat Wolves who could come hard fighting in the game to play their World Cup final match before the break because it’s against Arsenal that every lower PL club side is motivated to cause havoc for when playing against them at the Ems.

  • Gord

    Congratulations to young Reiss Nelson! This looks to be a wonderful loan you picked up. Keep getting those goals young man!

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