By Bulldog Drummond
As we all remember, I am sure, it was a defeat away to Southampton that started Arsenal on the downward turn earlier in the season after the unbeaten run.
Here is what has happened from the last Southampton match onwards
| Date | Game (all PL except as marked) | Res | Score |
| 16 Dec 2018 | Southampton v Arsenal | L | 3-2 |
| 19 Dec 2018 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur LC | L | 0-2 |
| 22 Dec 2018 | Arsenal v Burnley | W | 3-1 |
| 26 Dec 2018 | Brighton and Hove v Arsenal | D | 1-1 |
| 29 Dec 2018 | Liverpool v Arsenal | L | 5-1 |
| 01 Jan 2019 | Arsenal v Fulham | W | 4-1 |
| 05 Jan 2019 | Blackpool v Arsenal FAC | W | 0-3 |
| 12 Jan 2019 | West Ham United v Arsenal | L | 1-0 |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Arsenal v Chelsea | W | 2-0 |
| 25 Jan 2019 | Arsenal v Manchester United FAC | L | 1-3 |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Arsenal v Cardiff City | W | 2-1 |
| 03 Feb 2019 | Manchester City v Arsenal | L | 3-1 |
| 09 Feb 2019 | Huddersfield Town v Arsenal | W | 1-2 |
| 14 Feb 2019 | FC BATE Borisov v Arsenal (Europa) | L | 1-0 |
| 21 Feb 2019 | Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov (Europa) | W | 3-0 |
Seven defeats, one draw, seven wins. So a certain balance, but nothing remotely like the sort of winning streak that we had before the Southampton game.
Here is the league table based on home games only…
| P | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 49 | 11 | 38 | 39 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 7 | 28 | 35 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 32 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 9 | 17 | 28 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 27 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
Whereas Southampton’s away form is anything but positive.
Bottom of the league based on away games only…
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
| 15 | Southampton | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 9 |
| 17 | Brighton and Hove | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 8 |
| 19 | Huddersfield Town | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 6 |
| 20 | Fulham | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 32 | -24 | 2 |
The goal difference of the two clubs looks significant as well: Arsenal have scored 28 and conceded 11 at home, while Southampton have scored 13 and conceded 23 away. Just on average scores Arsenal should win 2-1, but if we take into account our forward line, it would be foolish to bank against Arsenal getting three or four. One might also look out for a couple of goals coming in the last ten minutes of the game as Southampton wilt and any dubious refereeing is set aside as Arsenal have clearly got the win… if we get those early goals that is.
Southampton’s form from the start of the year has not been that exciting…
| 02 Jan 2019 | Chelsea v Southampton | D | 0-0 |
| 05 Jan 2019 | Derby County v Southampton FAC | D | 2-2 |
| 12 Jan 2019 | Leicester City v Southampton | W | 1-2 |
| 16 Jan 2019 | Southampton v Derby County FAC | L* | 2-2 |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Southampton v Everton | W | 2-1 |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Southampton v Crystal Palace | D | 1-1 |
| 02 Feb 2019 | Burnley v Southampton | D | 1-1 |
| 09 Feb 2019 | Southampton v Cardiff City | L | 1-2 |
*3-5 on aggregate
Of the eight matches, four were away from home, resulting in one win, three draws and no defeats. And this is where Southampton will start to find confidence. Their last away defeat was back on 8 December, away to Cardiff, and for them a draw against Arsenal would be a victory.
But looking at the January scores Southampton have never scored more than two goals in a match, and whatever you might think of Arsenal’s defence Southampton probably recognise that knocking in two past Arsenal in London is going to be tough.
It can happen that a team will put two or more past Arsenal on their own patch – but it is rare. Here are the last few times it has happened…
| Date | Match | Res | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2018 | Arsenal v Manchester City | L | 0-2 |
| 20 Sep 2018 | Arsenal v Vorskla Poltava (Europa) | W | 4-2 |
| 02 Dec 2018 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur | W | 4-2 |
| 19 Dec 2018 | Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur LC | L | 0-2 |
| 25 Jan 2019 | Arsenal v Manchester United FAC | L | 1-3 |
It has happened five times this season that teams have scored two or more goals against Arsenal at the Arsenal Stadium. Of those five Arsenal still won the match twice. The other three games were against top six clubs, which suggests Southampton must aim to have a wonderful day, while hoping Arsenal will have very much an off day.
And Arsenal have another incentive as the league table shows
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 27 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 74 | 20 | 54 | 65 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 59 | 15 | 44 | 65 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 27 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 55 | 27 | 28 | 60 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 52 | 35 | 17 | 51 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 53 | 37 | 16 | 50 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 50 |
Three clubs are chasing fourth position in the league, (which is not a trophy but is worth lots of £££££) and there is only one point and one goal between them. No one wants to slip up, and extra goals really could count at the end of the season.
Here’s the Guardian’s take on the teams…
Leno
Lichsteiner Mustafi Koscielny Monreal
Guendouzi Torreira
Iwobi Ozil Aubameyang
Lacazette
Goal.com goes with a very similar line up just changing two players
Leno
Lichsteiner Mustafi Koscielny Kolasinac
Guendouzi Torreira
Suarez Ozil Aubameyang
Lacazette
while the Standard prefers Xhaka, Maitland-Niles and Ramsey
Leno
Maitland-Niles, Mustafi, Koscielny, Kolasinac
Xhaka, Torreira,
Guendouzi, Ramsey, Aubameyang,
Lacazette
We shall see.
As for me, my own Arsenal 3-4-3 starting XI and 7 Gunners on the bench against Southampton today’s afternoon at the Ems in the PL read below.
Starts:
Leno;
Mustafi Sokratis Monreal;
AMN Xhaka Ozil Kolasinac;
Mkhitaryan Aubameyang Iwobi.
Bench:
Cech Lichtsteiner Mavropanous Torreira Elneny Suarez Nkethia.
But I don’t know if AMN is fit to play and if Emery has selected him to start the match which if he does, it will allow Guendouzi to get a match rest today who I am suspecting is needing a game rest due to fatigue.
Arsenal need to be mentally careful to not think they will beat Southampton on a plate this afternoon because they’re at home. But rather, the Gunners should be prepared in all fullness to expect the Saints to give them a game to play for their money. To be expecting the Saints to give them a difficult game to play which the Saints are capable of doing will make the Gunners not be taken by surprise in the game as they would already have prepared their minds for that and will deal with it appropriately if it happens. Therefore, Arsenal should endeavour to be burying the chances that come their ways, fall to them and the ones they’ve created in the game to kill off any resistant in game that the Saints could pose to them in the match. If Arsenal play their hands very well in the game as being expected they’ll do by us Gooners, I think Arsenal will hit the Saints 3-0 at the final blast of the match referee’s whistle ending the game.
Games has started (4m ago). No in game commentary, so here was the starting lineup.
Leno
Lichsteiner Mustafi Sokratis Kolasinac
Torreira Xhaka
Iwobi Ramsey Mikhitaryan
Lacazette
Beach: Cech, Koscielny, Ozil, Aubameyang, Monreal, Suarez, Guendouzi
COYG!
We have an early goal! Lacazette puts the ball in the old onion bag, after Southampton had a shot on target. Assist to Mkhitaryan!
COYG!
And I see Walter has a thread up now.
Sorry guys had to take it away again as I have problems with the updates. In that I can’t update the article for an unknown reason….
Okay a new version is online now. I hope I can update now in the second half. https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/74381