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Arsenal v Chelsea: Europa Final. Using past stats to predict the result

by Bulldog Drummond

This decade has been a good one for Chelsea, with three doubles:

  • 2009–10: League and FA Cup
  • 2011–12: FA Cup and UEFA Champions League
  • 2014–15: League and League Cup

In addition they won the League in 2017, the Europa League in 2013, and the FA cup in 2017–18.  Whatever we might think of the club and its funding, this is impressive.

Arsenal have achieved much less during this decade with just three FA Cup wins in 2013–14, 2014–15, and 2016–17.   However we might particularly notice the 2017 FA Cup final, in which Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-1.  Chelsea had previously won the league finishing 18 points above Arsenal who came in fifth.   So although these records do give us some guide to how events might turn out they are not perfect predictors.

And thus it is worth looking a little deeper into the stats…

Chelsea’s results in the Europa League this season show that out of 14 games played they won 12 and drew just two.  Most impressive along the route was the 3-0 win at home against Dynamo Kiev and the 0-5 away win thereafter.  They were less impressive at the start of the campaign to reach the final, beating PAOK Salonika away 0-1 and Videoton at home 1-0.

And while Arsenal slaughtered their way through the semi-final Chelsea only managed to win on penalties 4-3 in the second leg.

Date Match Result Score
20 Sep 2018 PAOK Salonika v Chelsea W 0-1
04 Oct 2018 Chelsea v Videoton W 1-0
25 Oct 2018 Chelsea v FC BATE Borisov W 3-1
08 Nov 2018 FC BATE Borisov v Chelsea W 0-1
29 Nov 2018 Chelsea v PAOK Salonika W 4-0
13 Dec 2018 Videoton v Chelsea D 2-2
14 Feb 2019 Malmö FF v Chelsea W 1-2
21 Feb 2019 Chelsea v Malmö FF W 3-0
07 Mar 2019 Chelsea v Dynamo Kiev W 3-0
14 Mar 2019 Dynamo Kiev v Chelsea W 0-5
11 Apr 2019 Slavia Praha v Chelsea W 0-1
18 Apr 2019 Chelsea v Slavia Praha W 4-3
02 May 2019 Eintracht Frankfurt v Chelsea D 1-1
09 May 2019 Chelsea v Eintracht Frankfurt W 1-1 (4-3)

When it comes to their last ten games in the league this past season, the results were less impressive with four wins, four draws and two defeats (one to Liverpool and the other to Everton, both by 2-0, both away.  Perhaps they don’t like Merseyside – although we can’t really blame them for that).

Date Match Result Score
10 Mar 2019 Chelsea v Wolverhampton W D 1-1
17 Mar 2019 Everton v Chelsea L 2-0
31 Mar 2019 Cardiff City v Chelsea W 1-2
03 Apr 2019 Chelsea v Brighton and Hove W 3-0
08 Apr 2019 Chelsea v West Ham United W 2-0
14 Apr 2019 Liverpool v Chelsea L 2-0
22 Apr 2019 Chelsea v Burnley D 2-2
28 Apr 2019 Manchester United v Chelsea D 1-1
05 May 2019 Chelsea v Watford W 3-0
12 May 2019 Leicester City v Chelsea D 0-0

As we know only too well, Chelsea finished above Arsenal in the league at the end of the season, although only by two points.  If one of Arsenal’s defeats turned into a victory and we would have been third.  We might have been a long way off the top two, but the next three were seriously bunched.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 38 32 2 4 95 23 72 98
2 Liverpool 38 30 7 1 89 22 67 97
3 Chelsea 38 21 9 8 63 39 24 72
4 Tottenham Hotspur 38 23 2 13 67 39 28 71
5 Arsenal 38 21 7 10 73 51 22 70

And since, in the final, both teams are playing “away” as it were, we should perhaps consider Chelsea’s away form in the league against ours.

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Away games only

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 19 14 2 3 38 11 27 44
2 Liverpool 19 13 5 1 34 12 22 44
3 Tottenham Hotspur 19 11 0 8 33 23 10 33
4 Manchester United 19 9 3 7 32 29 3 30
5 Chelsea 19 9 3 7 24 27 -3 30
6 Crystal Palace 19 9 2 8 32 30 2 29
7 Leicester City 19 7 4 8 27 28 -1 25
8 Arsenal 19 7 4 8 31 35 -4 25

Here Chelsea do have the advantage, getting two more wins away from home than we did – although there was only one goal in it, in terms of goal difference.

Finally if we look now at the last ten games between the two sides in all competitions we see this…

Date Match Res Score Competition
24 Sep 2016 Arsenal v Chelsea W 3-0 Premier League
04 Feb 2017 Chelsea v Arsenal L 3-1 Premier League
27 May 2017 Arsenal v Chelsea W 2-1 FA Cup
06 Aug 2017 Arsenal v Chelsea W 1-1 FA Community Shield
17 Sep 2017 Chelsea v Arsenal D 0-0 Premier League
03 Jan 2018 Arsenal v Chelsea D 2-2 Premier League
10 Jan 2018 Chelsea v Arsenal D 0-0 League Cup
24 Jan 2018 Arsenal v Chelsea W 2-1 League Cup
18 Aug 2018 Chelsea v Arsenal L 3-2 Premier League
19 Jan 2019 Arsenal v Chelsea W 2-0 Premier League

Despite the perception in many quarters that Chelsea are a much stronger team than Arsenal, the head-to-head doesn’t show this – in the past ten games in all competitions, Arsenal have won five, three have been drawn and two were defeats, with both defeats being at Stamford Bridge.

Put the recent record in winning trophies, their performance in the Europa this season and their position in the League this season (noting particularly their away record) and they look like the stronger team of the two.  But we might hold onto that FA Cup victory.   Maybe now, as then, we need a particularly sharp eyed referee when it comes to diving.

 

 

9 comments to Arsenal v Chelsea: Europa Final. Using past stats to predict the result

  • Menace

    We have a set of Italian officials in the Final. They should be neutral & should make the game honest. The Offside VAR official is the odd one out, being the only non Italian, but that should not be an issue.

    There are some areas of concern however, and those are possible influence by Abramovic, who is from those parts with his Israely connections. The other issue is the uncertainty of a Trojan horse, specifically for this match, in our goal. I hope I’m wrong & completely out of order, but somethings have to be said.

    Looking forward to victory despite all odds.

    COYG bring it home to the Ems.

  • porter

    Another subject requiring investigation

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/soccer-spanish-players-officials-arrested-on-match-fixing-charges-el-pais.

    As for tomorrow ,what will be will be . Seemingly they have injury problems but we can never be sure of our own .
    Just get behind the sofa cross fingers and hope for the best.

  • Matt

    i just have a gut feeling we are going to win this match 3-1

  • Menace, I am intrigued by your reference to Abramovich’s “Israely connections”, which raise a cause for concern.

    What has that to do with Italy?

    Abramovitch is from Russia and has only recently obtained Israeli citizenship when the UK refused to give him a visa to stay here. He is entitled to Israeli citizenship because he is Jewish under the Law of Return.

    Can you clarify in what way this raises risks against Arsenal in the final?

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Anyway, in as Abramovitch Israeli connections could pose a risk to Arsenal or not to obtain a win in the match over his Chelsea club side to lift the Europa League Cup, but notwithstanding the risk Abramovitch Israeli connections or any other person connections for that matter could pose in the game tomorrow to Arsenal, the Gunners will still beat Chelsea to lift the Cup and they will certainly lift it at the end of the match comes what may in the game impacting on Arsenal negatively. The Gunners will not be deterred from beating the Blues on behalf of Arsenal. This will happen because Arsenal who are the most hungry of the two clubs that will battle to win the match will win it for being the most hungry of the two clubs wanting to win the match. ‘Being The Most Hungry Of The Two’ is the game application unlocking key, and the only single key available which Arsenal have gotten and will use it in the game to unlock the locked game application of the match to win it. But unfortunately for Chelsea who for their haven won the Cup in 2013 can’t have this key because Arsenal are already in possession of it.

    Nevertheless, Arsenal should be very careful to not lose or misuse this unlocking locked game application key which they are in possession of it to unlock the locked game application during the playing of match tomorrow from the commencement of it to the very end of it. For, they’ll will be needing this key to unlock the locked game application of the match at any stage of it as the game progresses. Therefore, Arsenal should refrain themselves from letting this key drop down during the match. Because if it does and Chelsea see it, they’ll make a go for it in a flash to pick it up to deny Arsenal using it but use it themselves to unlock the locked game Application to thereby unleash heart felt pains on Arsenal in the game. Therefore, the Gunners MUST forbid Chelsea from gaining access to this key. In fact, they should not let Chelsea see the Key so as to nullify them from making attempt to take possession of it. Which if they do, it’ll make them to have an impact in the match that will impact negatively on Arsenal. I hope this my wise sayings will be consumed and digested by Arsenal. If they do, they will be more than enough for them in absolute power to overpower Chelsea in the game and beat them in the match tomorrow in the 2019 Europa League Cup final match. This 2019 ELC final between Arsenal and Chelsea could turnout to be the ‘Mother Of All The Finals’ ever seen battled before in the final of the Europa League Cup competition since it’s inception. But at any rate, Arsenal will win the match however difficult it may prove to play. Even if it is not played on Earth but on Mars and refereed by Jupiter match officiating officials who are assisted by VAR personnel from Saturn who and their VAR device are never seen before but tomorrow since the Big Bang came into force. But notwithstanding, Arsenal will still win the match.

  • Gord

    OT: Corruption News

    Marca has an article on some of the process being used in Spain to detect football match fixing.

    https://www.marca.com/en/football/spanish-football/2019/05/28/5ced7a5a268e3ee16a8b45ed.html

  • Gord

    I couldn’t sleep.

    Mostly the news is crap. One article 7 hours ago, was positive about Arsenal.

    About 8 hours ago, Michael Owen Sprouted something, but I couldn’t be bothered to read what crap he sprouted.

    Time to go back to sleep.

  • Menace

    Jigsol – the closness of Russia & its former partners in USSR are what I’m alluding to. His passport is also a very powerful pointer to access of business ties like the old boy network. Back scratching can be reflected in many ways.