By Tony Attwood.
At least we know what will happen this season if the super whizzo super duper computer knows what’s what. For here is their prediction for the table at the end of the season that will shortly be under way.
I have added at the end of each row the position the club held in 2018/19 and the change that would arise if their prediction turns out to be true. This is because we have done our own analysis of the change from 2017/18 to 2018/19 and found that indeed the change that occurred then was quite tiny in terms of placings.
Indeed this is starting to be a major failing of the Premier League – if you want next season’s league table just look at last season’s league table. Or at least that is how it is most of the time…
So let us compare the results they predict for this season to come, against the season just gone.
As we can see this super computer prediction is a matter of nothing changing much. In fact it is a prediction that is so similar to last season that one begins to think that the programmers simply took last season without any input as to changes that might be made.
We win two games fewer but draw two games more. We score four goals more but concede one goal fewer. Once again we miss a top four spot by just one point.
Now that is an interesting prediction both for defence and attack. Let’s start with going forward.
Last season our goalscorers were Aubameyang with 31, Lacazette with 19 and then four players on six (Mkhitaryan, Iwobi, Ozil, Ramsey.) But we now have in our team another top goal scorer who if he only gets six will be a major disappointment. 20 seems more likely.
And then there is the defence. Last season we let in 51 and this coming season they suggest it will be 50. Which by and large assumes no change and no improvement. But there are a few things to take into account here.
First, we have Bellerin, Holding, Sokratis with a year’s experience of PGMO and Chambers. We have presumably lost Koscielny. Maitland-Niles will be further improved, Monreal will be older but still able to play a few games. Will that set of changes just mean we concede one go fewer than last season? It seems preposterous for that to be the case.
The problem here seems to be that the people making this analysis includes BT Sport, home of some of the biggest buffoons in TV football, so perhaps it is not so surprising that the results don’t look right from here.
Of course predicting that the top two from this past season will be the top two from last season is not that difficult because something major is going to have to happen for that not to be the case. But just occasionally something major does happen.
Uefa might finally decide to take on Man City and the owners might go off in a huff. The owner at Liverpool might get distracted by events in the USA. Chelsea’s owner might decide he is not going to get his UK visa back and so simply pulls the plug on Chelsea. Tottenham’s ground might turn out to have been built on a previously undiscovered fault line in the crust of the earth and it vanishes into the depths. With multi-millions still owing on its development and no insurance for acts of God the club goes bust…
OK so I am getting carried away there, but let us not forget that Leicester did actually win the League a few years ago, way back in the 1930s Manchester City having won the League one season were relegated the next, and Man U spent a season in the second division in the 1970s.
Such events don’t happen all the time, but they happen sometimes. I am not saying that change will be enormous, but I think the super computer was kidding its programmers and in fact it was merely running last season again and then put in a couple of rainy days.
I will try to remember to come back to this in nine months time.
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