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There is no need to watch next season, we already know what will happen

By Tony Attwood.

At least we know what will happen this season if the super whizzo super duper computer knows what’s what.  For here is their prediction for the table at the end of the season that will shortly be under way.

I have added at the end of each row the position the club held in 2018/19 and the change that would arise if their prediction turns out to be true.   This is because we have done our own analysis of the change from 2017/18 to 2018/19 and found that indeed the change that occurred then was quite tiny in terms of placings.

Indeed this is starting to be a major failing of the Premier League – if you want next season’s league table just look at last season’s league table.  Or at least that is how it is most of the time…

19/20 Club P W D L F A GD Pts 18/19 +/-
1 Manchester City 38 29 7 2 96 21 75 94 1
2 Liverpool 38 27 7 4 80 28 52 88 2
3 Tottenham 38 23 6 9 71 39 32 75 4 +1
4 Chelsea 38 19 10 9 70 37 33 67 3 -1
5 Arsenal 38 19 9 10 77 50 27 66 5
6 Manchester United 38 20 6 12 72 51 21 66 6
7 Everton 38 14 12 12 57 53 4 54 8 +1
8 Wolves 38 14 11 13 45 52 -7 53 7 -1
9 Leicester 38 14 9 15 47 53 -6 51 9
10 Crystal Palace 38 11 14 13 42 51 -9 47 12 +2
11 West Ham 38 11 11 16 43 63 -20 44 10 -1
12 Watford 38 11 10 17 47 58 -11 43 11 -1
13 Bournemouth 38 11 9 18 48 65 -17 42 14 +1
14 Southampton 38 10 11 17 50 65 -15 41 16 +2
15 Aston Villa 38 12 5 21 45 63 -18 41
16 Brighton 38 12 4 22 33 58 -25 40 17 +1
17 Burnley 38 8 13 17 31 51 -20 37 15 -2
18 Newcastle 38 10 7 21 41 70 -29 37 13 -5
19 Norwich 38 9 7 22 38 71 -33 34
20 Sheffield United 38 8 8 22 34 68 -34 32

So let us compare the results they predict for this season to come, against the season just gone.

Pos Season P W D L F A GD Pts Pos 4th
5 Predicted 38 19 9 10 77 50 27 66 5 1pt
5 Last season 38 21 7 10 73 51 22 70 5 1pt

As we can see this super computer prediction is a matter of nothing changing much.  In fact it is a prediction that is so similar to last season that one begins to think that the programmers simply took last season without any input as to changes that might be made.

We win two games fewer but draw two games more.   We score four goals more but concede one goal fewer.  Once again we miss a top four spot by just one point.

Now that is an interesting prediction both for defence and attack.   Let’s start with going forward.

Last season our goalscorers were  Aubameyang with 31, Lacazette with 19 and then four players on six (Mkhitaryan, Iwobi, Ozil, Ramsey.)   But we now have in our team another top goal scorer who if he only gets six will be a major disappointment.   20 seems more likely.

And then there is the defence.   Last season we let in 51 and this coming season they suggest it will be 50.   Which by and large assumes no change and no improvement.   But there are a few things to take into account here.

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First, we have Bellerin, Holding, Sokratis with a year’s experience of PGMO and Chambers.  We have presumably lost Koscielny.  Maitland-Niles will be further improved, Monreal will be older but still able to play a few games.   Will that set of changes just mean we concede one go fewer than last season?   It seems preposterous for that to be the case.

The problem here seems to be that the people making this analysis includes BT Sport, home of some of the biggest buffoons in TV football, so perhaps it is not so surprising that the results don’t look right from here.

Of course predicting that the top two from this past season will be the top two from last season is not that difficult because something major is going to have to happen for that not to be the case.  But just occasionally something major does happen. 

Uefa might finally decide to take on Man City and the owners might go off in a huff.  The owner at Liverpool might get distracted by events in the USA.  Chelsea’s owner might decide he is not going to get his UK visa back and so simply pulls the plug on Chelsea.   Tottenham’s ground might turn out to have been built on a previously undiscovered fault line in the crust of the earth and it vanishes into the depths.  With multi-millions still owing on its development and no insurance for acts of God the club goes bust…

OK so I am getting carried away there, but let us not forget that Leicester did actually win the League a few years ago, way back in the 1930s Manchester City having won the League one season were relegated the next, and Man U spent a season in the second division in the 1970s.   

Such events don’t happen all the time, but they happen sometimes.  I am not saying that change will be enormous, but I think the super computer was kidding its programmers and in fact it was merely running last season again and then put in a couple of rainy days.

I will try to remember to come back to this in nine months time. 

 

11 comments to There is no need to watch next season, we already know what will happen

  • Nazir

    Xhaxa must be sold. Too slow. 2 seconds delay in response. Cannot be made captain. Ozil game against Barcelona showed that he is not interested in the wellbeing of this club.

  • P. Mulundu

    Arsenal to finish second.

  • Laos gooner

    please let there be a fault line through swamp dweller Lane. The idea of their pikey shopping centre cladding toilet bowl vanishing into a hole in the ground sounds like the best solution to their continued existence. I am now optimistic about the coming season.

  • Mikey

    @ Nazir

    Thanks for your expert analysis. Can you just give us your full name so we can check on line to see your credentials as a highly qualified and experienced football coach/manager/director of football/owner.

  • MickHazel

    Nazir
    Did you miss Ozils magnificent eye of the needle pass to set up Aubas goal?

  • Gord

    Very long page, possibly with no content other than 6 responses?

  • Yang

    Don’t you think instead of always whining about another person’s predictions (and indeed statements), you should just go ahead and make yours, then we’ll let time decide who’s smart and who’s a moron? Every close of season you criticize other people’s preseason prediction, but comfortably forget yours. Last summer you kept reminding us how we were going to have a one horse race of a season, it became really tedious. Now because of Liverpool’s exploits last season it’s suddenly going to be a 2-horse race because city and Liverpool will between now and tomorrow buy every footballer on the planet. Come mid-way into the season you’ll probably change tune and blame the media for it as usual

  • Yang I am sorry that I have not made my position clear. Wehave in fact written many articles in which we try to tease out what could happen to address various factors that causes Arsenal to drop out of the top four, making the point that if these can be addressed in particular ways we could end up in position x or y. Indeed the forthcoming preview of the Newcastle game has taken these forwards in terms of predictions.
    And that is my point (which I sorry you have not grasped). Just making a prediction based on the team is not very interesting and often not very accurate. Rather like the transfers where players names are put forward and someone else is blamed for making the prediction).
    So to be clear, if we can address the away form, which used to be akin to our home form, but is now some way behind, we can end up third. Higher would require a collapse by one of the teams that came 1st or 2nd.
    That is it simplified. But as Mr Wenger said, “Fair play is an English word. It doesn’t exist here any more.”

  • Uzo

    Lol @Tony. Yang is right. You can’t come and say “if” arsenal address its weaknesses we will win the league, if we don’t we’re relegated. Anybody can say “if” Sheffield united play excellently, they could win the league like Leicester. That goes without saying, after all at the beginning of the season all 20 teams have an equal chance of winning the league mathematically. If you’re going to make predictions, you take all the variables into consideration and have the courage to make your choices. You don’t leave many gaps for manoeuvres with all your “its” and then have the audacity to troll another person who has the courage to make his predictions and stick with it, no its.

  • I am not sure why when I make a prediction I have to take all variables into account, when no on else seems to.

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