Arsenal v Man U: how the referees have been treating each club this season

By Bulldog Drummond

Man U’s away form puts them at number 8 in the away league with three wins, three draws, and four defeats.

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	20	5	15	25
2	Chelsea	10	7	0	3	24	18	6	21
3	Leicester City	10	6	1	3	24	10	14	19
4	Manchester City	10	6	1	3	27	14	13	19
5	Sheffield United	10	3	6	1	11	9	2	15
6	Wolverhampton Wanderers	10	3	5	2	13	11	2	14
7	Southampton	10	4	2	4	14	13	1	14
8	Manchester United	10	3	3	4	12	13	-1	12

It makes them pretty much as likely to get a win as a draw as a defeat – so in effect everything depends on the opposition, and the way the referee treats each side.

Here is Arsenal’s position in the home league table…

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	10	10	0	0	27	9	18	30
2	Leicester City	10	7	2	1	19	9	10	23
3	Manchester City	10	7	1	2	27	9	18	22
4	Tottenham Hotspur	10	6	2	2	21	10	11	20
5	Manchester United	10	5	4	1	20	10	10	19
6	Everton	10	5	2	3	12	11	1	17
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	10	4	4	2	16	14	2	16
8	Newcastle United	10	4	4	2	11	9	2	16
9	Brighton and Hove Albion	10	4	3	3	14	11	3	15
10	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	9	9	0	15
11	Burnley	10	5	0	5	13	15	-2	15
12	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	12	10	2	14
13	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	11	10	1	14
14	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	13	14	-1	14
15	Arsenal	10	3	4	3	15	17	-2	13

So Arsenal likewise are pretty much as likely to win as draw as lose.   Which means that which team will win may well be be down to the referee.   So looking at the referee table, we can see that Arsenal get more cards than are given against them while Man U get fewer cards than the opposition in games.  And yet the clubs commit pretty much the same number of fouls.

So if this is an average game Arsenal will certainly be penalised far more than Manchester United.

	Team	Pld	Cards		Cards per game		Diff
			For	Agst	For	Agst
1	Arsenal	20	52	46	2.60	2.30	6
2	Tottenham	20	51	40	2.55	2.00	11
3	Watford	20	47	37	2.35	1.85	10
4	West Ham	19	42	25	2.21	1.32	17
5	Man City	20	43	25	2.15	1.25	18
6	Bournemouth	20	43	41	2.15	2.05	2
7	Sheffield United	20	42	26	2.10	1.30	16
8	Man United	20	41	51	2.05	2.55	-10

In short the prediction for this match is that the teams are fairly evenly matched, but based on this year’s refereeing experience Manchester United are much less likely to get fouls given against them and less likely to get yellow cards as a result of players’ fouling, than Arsenal.   Thus Arsenal start with something of a mountain to climb.

It all means we start with a serious disadvantage.

Looking at December’s results we can see Man U taking advantage of the situation

Date	Game	Res	Score	Competition
01 Dec 2019	Manchester United v Aston Villa	D	2-2	Premier League
04 Dec 2019	Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur	W	2-1	Premier League
07 Dec 2019	Manchester City v Manchester United	W	1-2	Premier League
12 Dec 2019	Manchester United v AZ Alkmaar	W	4-0	Europa League
15 Dec 2019	Manchester United v Everton	D	1-1	Premier League
18 Dec 2019	Manchester United v Colchester United	W	3-0	League Cup
22 Dec 2019	Watford v Manchester United	L	2-0	Premier League
26 Dec 2019	Manchester United v Newcastle United	W	4-1	Premier League
28 Dec 2019	Burnley v Manchester United	W	0-2	Premier League

That makes it six wins, one defeat and two draws.  However of the ten games only three have been away, and it was away to Watford than Man U suffered their defeat of the month.

Arsenal in contrast

Date	Game	Res	Score	Competition
01 Dec 2019	Norwich City v Arsenal	D	2-2	Premier League
05 Dec 2019	Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion	L	1-2	Premier League
09 Dec 2019	West Ham United v Arsenal	W	1-3	Premier League
12 Dec 2019	Standard Liège v Arsenal	D	2-2	Europa League
15 Dec 2019	Arsenal v Manchester City	L	0-3	Premier League
21 Dec 2019	Everton v Arsenal	D	0-0	Premier League
26 Dec 2019	AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal	D	1-1	Premier League
29 Dec 2019	Arsenal v Chelsea	L	1-2	Premier League

While Man U have had one defeat Arsenal have had just one win – and that was away to West Ham.  In fact all three home games this month have been defeats.

Thus with the refereeing position not in our favour as well as current form being against us, this could well be a struggle with Arsenal picking up cards for fouls more readily, and simply lacking the confidence to get a win.

The refereeing of the last match is also likely still to be on Arsenal’s collective mindset.   In fact the only thing going in Arsenal’s favour at the moment is that the crowd has not yet turned on Arteta.