by Bulldog Drummond
When we look at the respective home and away record of the teams we find Arsenal at home are the seventh best team in the league with five wins, five draws and three defeats with a goal difference of plus four (thanks to our last home match!) – which is pretty much what one would expected from a team in this position.
The rest of the top six clubs and Everton are above us in the home matches league…
Home games only
In terms of away performance, Everton are lurking closer to the dead men. Even Arsenal have a better away record, and our away form is our Achilles heel.
Away games only
|14||West Ham United||13||3||3||7||10||20||-10||12|
Three wins, three draws and seven defeats with a GD of minus eight makes a home win look more likely. 2-1 to Arsenal would seem the most likely score.
Including the Everton v Arsenal league game Everton have played ten games since late December
|21 Dec 2019||Everton v Arsenal||D||0-0||Premier League|
|26 Dec 2019||Everton v Burnley||W||1-0||Premier League|
|28 Dec 2019||Newcastle United v Everton||W||1-2||Premier League|
|01 Jan 2020||Manchester City v Everton||L||2-1||Premier League|
|05 Jan 2020||Liverpool v Everton||L||1-0||FA Cup|
|11 Jan 2020||Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion||W||1-0||Premier League|
|18 Jan 2020||West Ham United v Everton||D||1-1||Premier League|
|21 Jan 2020||Everton v Newcastle United||D||2-2||Premier League|
|01 Feb 2020||Watford v Everton||W||2-3||Premier League|
|08 Feb 2020||Everton v Crystal Palace||W||3-1||Premier League|
Results have certainly been on the up with no defeats in the last five, and the only two defeats being by one goal against Manchester City and Liverpool away. Leaving those two games aside Everton are undefeated away from home in this run of matches – which could then change the prediction to a draw.
Arsenal are undefeated this year, with just one defeat in the last ten
|29 Dec 2019||Arsenal v Chelsea||L||1-2||Premier League|
|01 Jan 2020||Arsenal v Manchester United||W||2-0||Premier League|
|06 Jan 2020||Arsenal v Leeds United||W||1-0||FA Cup|
|11 Jan 2020||Crystal Palace v Arsenal||D||1-1||Premier League|
|18 Jan 2020||Arsenal v Sheffield United||D||1-1||Premier League|
|21 Jan 2020||Chelsea v Arsenal||D||2-2||Premier League|
|27 Jan 2020||AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal||W||1-2||FA Cup|
|02 Feb 2020||Burnley v Arsenal||D||0-0||Premier League|
|16 Feb 2020||Arsenal v Newcastle United||W||4-0||Premier League|
|20 Feb 2020||Olympiakos v Arsenal||W||0-1||Europa League|
This is easily the best Arsenalform of the season and I suspect the momentum will count for something. Everton however do have the benefit of no cups to play in – Arsenal are of course still involved in two cups and thus having to rotate the squad.
Arsenal have scored 15 goals in their last ten games, Everton have 14 in their last ten games, which again suggests fairly even matching. Injuries and player availability could have an influence.
The head to head shows a surprising imbalance with Arsenal having won 106 games and Everton only 61. 46 have been draws.
And indeed the last ten games between the two clubs, leaving aside the Premier League AISA Trophy in 2015 (which we won), have shown a strong Arsenal dominance. All games below are in the League
|01 Mar 2015||Arsenal v Everton||W||2-0|
|24 Oct 2015||Arsenal v Everton||W||2-1|
|19 Mar 2016||Everton v Arsenal||W||0-2|
|13 Dec 2016||Everton v Arsenal||L||2-1|
|21 May 2017||Arsenal v Everton||W||3-1|
|22 Oct 2017||Everton v Arsenal||W||2-5|
|03 Feb 2018||Arsenal v Everton||W||5-1|
|23 Sep 2018||Arsenal v Everton||W||2-0|
|07 Apr 2019||Everton v Arsenal||L||1-0|
|21 Dec 2019||Everton v Arsenal||D||0-0|
Seven victories – although two of the failures to win have come in the Era of Changing Managers, but even then Everton have only scored one goal. 22 goals for Arsenal in those ten games suggests again we should score two, while Everton’s eight goals against us suggest again a scoreline for them of zero or one.
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