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October 2020
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Manchester City v Arsenal. Looking for a 0-3 victory.

By Bulldog Drummond

If the feeling in Europe is right and that home advantage doesn’t really work any more then, the historic home and away form analysis that Untold has run before matches for years, will be of little interest.

But I’d like to see a couple of games in the Premier League before agreeing with that.  The difference between ourselves and Germany is that

a) We’ve seen what has happened in Germany and coaches will have had a chance to consider that, with home teams perhaps coming up with all sorts of artificial sound effects to encourage their players and make everyone forget the lack of a crowd

b) There is no knowing what PGMO will come up with now that their bias towards home teams has been revealed through a series of studies of referee responses to events on the pitch.  They are throughout hopelessly biased towards the home team.

The 98% accuracy level of referees claimed by PGMO has been blown completely out of the water, and they have been made to look complete idiots.  The only thing stopping them being a laughing stock is the sad compliance of the media in hardly bothering to cover the story in any meaningful way.

So it is a bit of a lottery tonight.  Will home advantage count?  What games with the PGMO men play?  We shall see.

However let us move on and for the moment assume that home advantage is going to mean something.  What would it mean?

The home form of Manchester City is solid: nine wins, two draws, two defeats and an average of 2,54 goals a game scored with just under one goal a game conceded

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 15 15 0 0 40 12 28 45
2 Leicester City 15 9 3 3 30 15 15 30
3 Manchester City 13 9 2 2 33 12 21 29
4 Manchester United 15 8 5 2 29 12 17 29
5 Tottenham Hotspur 14 8 2 4 27 15 12 26
6 Arsenal 15 7 5 3 26 20 6 26

Looking at Arsenal’s away form however…

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Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 14 12 1 1 26 9 17 37
2 Manchester City 15 9 1 5 35 19 16 28
3 Chelsea 14 7 3 4 29 24 5 24
4 Leicester City 14 7 2 5 28 13 15 23
5 Wolverhampton Wanderers 14 5 6 3 20 17 3 21
6 Southampton 14 6 2 6 19 21 -2 20
7 Sheffield United 13 4 7 2 13 12 1 19
8 Crystal Palace 14 4 5 5 14 19 -5 17
9 Manchester United 14 4 4 6 15 18 -3 16
10 Burnley 14 4 4 6 14 21 -7 16
11 Tottenham Hotspur 15 3 6 6 20 25 -5 15
12 Arsenal 13 2 8 3 14 16 -2 14
13 Newcastle United 15 4 2 9 13 29 -16 14

Two wins, eight draws, three defeats.

A year ago after 13 games away from home our record was such that we had four extra points.

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 13 11 0 2 30 13 17 33
2 Liverpool 13 9 3 1 24 8 16 30
3 Manchester City 13 8 2 3 25 9 16 26
4 Manchester United 14 8 2 4 27 19 8 26
5 Chelsea 13 7 1 5 19 20 -1 22
6 Wolverhampton Wanderers 12 5 3 4 14 14 0 18
7 Arsenal 13 5 3 5 25 26 -1 18

We are in fact back to where we were two years ago after 13 away games when we had a 13 points.  In 2016/17 we had, away from home, after 13 games, 21 points.

So 14 points after 13 away games, whereas three years ago it was 21 points after 13 away games.  This is where our problem lies and if playing our remaining games as ghost games could be the solution we have been looking for, providing our home form doesn’t collapse.

But to return from history, the simple matter is that Man City have scored 33 goals at home this season and we have scored 25 away.  They have conceded 12 at home, we have conceded 16.

So if everything else is equal, they are going to win, although not massively.  What may help us is the issue of this being a ghost game.

Oh yes, and the fact that our manager has a lot of experience at watching their manager do his job as a manager.  Their manager has no experience at watching our manager do his job as a manager.

A 3-0 win for Arsenal and a defeat for Sheffield Utd in the other match will take us up to sixth.

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