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Premier League Betting and Odds

Arsenal v Liverpool: all the form of late points to a draw

By Bulldog Drummond

My goodness it seems like only the day before yesterday that we were celebrating a victory over Leicester and now we are looking forward to a home match against Liverpool!   Well!  This must a moment for saying that the “games come thick and fast.”

Of course during these recent days a few of the journalists have gradually caught up on the notion that Arsenal are no longer at the bottom of the league, and no sooner had one person said that “Arsenal have to be favourites to get the last place in the top four” than we found everyone was saying it.  The herd moves on once again.

The last six games table shows us where we are going – and the advantage Liverpool still hold over us: our goal difference is way down on Liverpool’s.  I’m including the top eight because it is always nice to give the Tiny Totts a little mention so they don’t feel too left out…

The last six games

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 6 6 0 0 15 1 14 18
2 Chelsea 6 5 1 0 12 2 10 16
3 Arsenal 6 5 1 0 10 4 6 16
4 Manchester City 6 4 1 1 14 5 9 13
5 Newcastle United 6 4 1 1 8 4 4 13
6 Manchester Utd 6 3 2 1 11 9 2 11
7 West Ham United 6 3 2 1 7 5 2 11
8 Tottenham Hots 6 3 0 3 14 8 6 9

The last ten games table has a similar look except the goal difference is much closer – showing that we can deliver goals over time.  Tottenham are in much the same position which seafaring folk tend to call “adrift”.

The last 10 games

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 10 8 1 1 23 5 18 25
2 Manchester City 10 8 1 1 24 9 15 25
3 Arsenal 10 8 1 1 22 7 15 25
4 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 18 7 11 21
5 Newcastle United 10 6 3 1 14 7 7 21
6 Man Utd 10 5 4 1 18 13 5 19
7 Wolverhampton W 10 6 0 4 15 9 6 18
8 West Ham United 10 5 2 3 14 11 3 17
9 Tottenham Hots 10 5 0 5 20 15 5 15

That last ten match table shows just three goals in the goal difference column in fact – one fewer scored and two fewer conceded).  The points as you will see, are identical.

At this time we also always do the home and away games table and here we can see that we have the slight edge, but really it is very close indeed.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
3 Arsenal home 14 10 2 2 24 10 14 32
3 Liverpool away 14 9 3 2 36 13 23 30

And here again, if we just look at more recent games we find a closeness.  Arsenal have 19 points from the last eight home games while Liverpool have 17 points from their last eight away games.  Everything in terms of form points to a draw.

On the injury front we seem to have no new concerns, although whether Tomiyasu will be available is a matter of doubt.  The latest from Arteta is that “we’re still assessing him because we’re taking some time to try to protect him and get him in the best and safest possible way.”

We have noted that If current trends continue Arsenal will finish 3rd, and Chelsea 4th, and obviously in this regard, we might be helped by the local difficulties that Chelsea now find themselves in.   For although pundits have (very late in the day) come round to the notion of Arsenal coming in fourth, they haven’t decided what they think will happen to post-Abramovichian Chelsea. 

However, there is the rather droll headline in the Telegraph, “Chelsea expected to lobby Government saying they cannot afford to get to Middlesbrough and back for £20,000”.   If things are that bad I would have thought that they could have had a whip-round among the players.

But while playing with the league tables it is important to see just how far Arsenal has come since those days in the late summer, in which the wild and whacky were predicting that each season would see the end of Arsenal continuous run in the Premier League since 1919.  I refer of course to the table after the first three games.

That was when Sports Mole ran the headline, “Ray Parlour: ‘Arsenal could be relegated’ – and Give Me Sport had “Arsenal are third-most backed team to be relegated from the Premier League”.

TalkSport, always at the heart of moderation ran GET RID:Arsenal fans call for Mikel Arteta to be sacked after humiliating back-to-back defeats, as bookmakers slash odds on Gunners to be relegated.”

Oh what jolly japes those journalists had in those days.   Of course since then they have all apologised for their foolishness in running such stories, and indeed here are those apologies in fulsome detail, with not a word missed out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Makes one think, doesn’t it.

3 comments to Arsenal v Liverpool: all the form of late points to a draw

  • Chris

    IMHO the game will be decided by PGMO.
    I see we’ll have Marriner doing the officiating.
    No idea if this bodes ill or very ill….
    As far as I can remember we have not had him too often this season.

    As for the game, this is the type of game we’ve all relished to have with an Arsenal team playing its best.
    They are. So I hope they’ll give Pool! enough headaches and will not give in.
    No question Pool! have the deeper and more experienced squad. Then, on the other hand all the pressure is on them.
    And our Young Guns know the sky is the limit.

  • Stephen

    Inasmuch as we have to take one game at a time, my mind is not much on the Liverpool game, rather it’s on the Villa game which i see as the more important game. My mind is well rested just incase there’s disappointment from the Liverpool game,i won’t be too disappointed or angry. COYG

  • GoingGoingGooner

    Philip Ball wrote a book called Critical Mass – a great read connecting physics to everyday life…one of his chapters was how birds will follow each other through twists and turns – in a flock. If I recollect correctly he talked about the mathematics of the group and what it took for the whole group to change direction.

    Football is interesting in that one team can dominate another but in fact this can change quickly through a change of formation or a change of understanding between a small sub group of the population and VOILA the other team takes over and the whole ‘flock’ comes with it. The whole team seems to have sprouted wings and no, the whole group didn’t have to be changed.

    My point is, though Liverpool is ahead of us on points – deservedly, I would say – we are inching up to that tipping point where that one player improving or gaining an understanding of his mates may make the difference. This match is only worth three points and if we lose it will not spell the end to what has been an optimistic season as our lads are extremely resiliant. BUT, should we get a result it will mean much more. It may not mean that over a season we shall be champions next year but it will show just how close we are.

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