By Bulldog Drummond
- Crystal Palace v Arsenal: the home and away form shows AFC favourites
- Crystal Palace v Arsenal; doom and gloom, tackles, fouls and yellow cards
- Crystal Palace v Arsenal – a history of the matches in seven videos…
- Crystal Palace v Arsenal: the injuries and the curious case of draws
Perhaps the biggest worry over this match for Arsenal is the pattern of recent results between the two clubs.
Overall of course Arsenal are in front, winning 29 games against Palace, and losing just five. However, in the last seven games between the two clubs, Arsenal have won just once. Five of the games have been drawn, and equal with Arsenal, just one game has been won by Palace. Here’s the chart… (All games are in the Premier League).
|28 Oct 2018||Crystal Palace v Arsenal||D||2-2|
|21 Apr 2019||Arsenal v Crystal Palace||L||2-3|
|27 Oct 2019||Arsenal v Crystal Palace||D||2-2|
|11 Jan 2020||Crystal Palace v Arsenal||D||1-1|
|14 Jan 2021||Arsenal v Crystal Palace||D||0-0|
|19 May 2021||Crystal Palace v Arsenal||W||1-3|
|18 Oct 2021||Arsenal v Crystal Palace||D||2-2|
This in fact does tell us a lot about Crystal Palace’s performances this season. They are, as we have already noticed, the almighty draw specialists.
Here is the Premier League table in order of games drawn this season…
|13||Brighton and Hove Albion||30||7||13||10||26||36||-10||34|
In fact almost half of Crystal Palace’s league games this season have been drawn (43%) – the highest percentage in the league. Arsenal on the other hand are bottom of the drawing table with three draws (11%). So something has to give. Arsenal, incidentally, have won 17 games to Palace’s seven.
Not surprisingly given how much Palace love to play for draws, is the fact that they have lost exactly the same number of games as Tottenham Hots: 10. Maybe instead of drooling over the Totts great achievement that fact might be noted by the media … but no I don’t think so.
So there can be no doubt as to how the game is going to pan out: Crystal Palace will be playing for a draw. However mitigating against this, Arsenal have only drawn one match away from home this season, so even if they didn’t have Champions League football in mind Arsenal would still be going for the win, as is their natural style.
But to be fair to Palace this is their normal positioning.
*The final row (“2021/22 est”) shows how many points Palace will end up with if they continue playing as they have done all season. And quite interestingly that means that they will end up with 44 points. Which would mean that in the last six seasons, three times they will have ended up with 44 points. It is getting to be a habit. They have also come 14th three times in the last six seasons.
But, I hear you cry, where will Arsenal finish up? Here’s the answer
|3/4||End of this season predicted||38||23||4||11||60||42||18||73|
|8||End of last season||38||18||7||13||55||39||16||61|
Yes we are predicting that Arsenal will be 12 points better off than last season and will finish third or fourth. That positional finish is difficult because it does depend to a degree on the level of the collapse of Chelsea, so it is outside our control.
|14||End of this season predicted||38||9||17||11||51||49||2||44|
|14||End of last season||38||12||8||18||41||66||-25||44|
The BBC is predicting a 1-1 draw for this match, noting that Palace “will cause the Gunners lots of problems but Mikel Arteta’s side are dangerous too. This should be a really good game and a very close one as well.”
What I think they are forgetting however is that after that dreadful away defeat to Everton after which the pundits said that Arsenal’s bubble had burst and there was no chance of a top four, we have won every single away game in the league scoring 14 and conceding three.
|18 Dec 2021||Leeds United v Arsenal||W||1-4|
|26 Dec 2021||Norwich City v Arsenal||W||0-5|
|10 Feb 2022||Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal||W||0-1|
|06 Mar 2022||Watford v Arsenal||W||2-3|
|19 Mar 2022||Aston Villa v Arsenal||W||0-1|
The average from that is around Crystal Palace 1 Arsenal 3.
Next up: the team.
- Summer 2023: Arsenal Transfers episode 2. 17 players in, 4 out.
- Arsenal women: the season review. We made the Champions League
- The ten reasons why Arsenal will continue to progress part 4. Football’s in trouble.
- The ten reasons why Arsenal will make more progress part 3
- Barcelona is on the edge of being banned from Uefa competitions