Newcastle v Arsenal: the influence this referee will have on the game



By Bulldog Drummond

So we approach the last away game of the season at Newcastle, and as ever can compare their home form with our away form through the season…

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
9 Newcastle United home 18 7 6 5 24 27 -3 27
4 Arsenal away 18 12 2 4 30 16 14 38

But as we know, since Newcastle were taken over by one of the most nauseating anti-human rights regimes in the world, they have recovered considerably from their previously lowly position, so it is worthwhile seeing just what impact the human rights deniers have had on the club.  Here are the last six games at home for Newcastle, away for Arsenal.

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
Newcastle United home 6 5 0 1 7 3 4 15
Arsenal away 6 3 0 3 7 10 -3 9

This reflects the huge steps that Newcastle have taken of late, since as recently as 20 January the foot of the table showed them very much in the bottom quarter.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Leeds United 20 5 7 8 24 39 -15 22
16 Everton 19 5 4 10 24 34 -10 19
17 Watford 19 4 2 13 23 37 -14 14
18 Norwich City 21 3 4 14 10 45 -35 13
19 Newcastle United 20 1 9 10 20 43 -23 12
20 Burnley 17 1 8 8 16 27 -11 11

By way of comparison Arsenal at this time were sixth

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 22 18 2 2 54 13 41 56
2 Liverpool 21 13 6 2 55 18 37 45
3 Chelsea 23 12 8 3 46 18 28 44
4 West Ham United 22 11 4 7 41 30 11 37
5 Tottenham Hotspur 19 11 3 5 26 22 4 36
6 Arsenal 20 11 2 7 33 25 8 35

Both teams have improved since then and if we take a look at the last ten games including home and away what we have is the two clubs both on 15 points out of the last ten games, Arsenal sitting in 7th position and Newcastle 8th.

H O M E A W A Y
Pos Team P W D L F A W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester C 10 4 1 0 19 4 4 1 0 12 1 26 26
2 Liverpool 10 4 1 0 10 1 4 1 0 9 3 15 26
3 Tottenham Ho 10 4 0 1 14 4 2 2 1 9 4 15 20
4 Brentford 10 3 1 1 7 2 3 0 2 10 8 7 19
5 Crystal Palace 10 2 3 0 5 1 3 0 2 9 5 8 18
6 Chelsea 10 2 1 2 7 10 3 1 1 13 3 7 17
7 Arsenal 10 2 0 2 6 6 3 0 3 7 10 -3 15
8 Newcastle U 10 3 0 1 4 2 2 0 4 6 13 -5 15

Newcastle’s recent games show a run of three defeats in late March and early April, followed by four wins, followed finally by two defeats.

But if we move beyond this and look at who the games were against we can see what has happened to Newcastle since the purchase of the club.  Their defeats have been against Chelsea, Everton and Tottenham in the March/April run and all three were away from home.

The victories were over Wolverhampton, Leicester, Palace and Norwich – the first three of these were at home.   The last two defeats were against Liverpool at home and Manchester City away.

In short, playing at home against mid-table and lower-table clubs at home, Newcastle is winning.  In other words if Arsenal play like a top four club they stand a chance of beating Newcastle.

However in such games, who oversees the game as referee can have an enormous impact, and in this case it is Darren England which is potentially good news for Arsenal as we can see from the figures that follow.

This season out of the first 267 games played 151 have been home wins (56.55%).   But for games refereed by Mr England that percentage drops to 42.9%.   Mr England’s figure is thus very close to the percentage of home wins given by referees during the period when there were no crowds in the ground (which was 44%).

The most obvious conclusion to be drawn from this is that Mr England is one of those few referees who is not influenced by the crowd into favouring the home team and this obviously should help Arsenal.

Mr England was promoted to the Select Group in August 2020, and was then added to the 2022 Fifa referee list of International Match Officials in December 2021.

Club Tackles Fouls Yellow cards
Arsenal 513 347 57
Newcastle 619 371 79

which leads to the analysis…

Club Tackles/foul Fouls/yellow Tackles/yellow
Arsenal 1.48 6.08 9.00
Newcastle 1.67 4.70 7.84

So Newcastle are allowed by referees to put in more tackles than Arsenal before the foul is called.   However when it comes to yellow cards referees are harsher on Newcastle, meaning that they pick up a yellow card after 4.70 tackles, while Arsenal get a yellow card after every 6.08 fouls.

As a result of this Arsenal can put in nine tackles before getting a yellow card, while Newcastle can only put in 7.84 tackles before getting a yellow.

Added to Mr England’s ability not to be influenced by the crowd nearly so much as most PGMO referees, it means we should stand a fighting chance in this game.

Gaslighting: the stories the media refuse to cover

Gaslighting: how refereeing in the Premier League is manipulated, and why the media never speak about it.

(Footnote: the first ever mention of gaslighting in connection with football other than in this article appeared in the media just six weeks after the launch of the above series on Untold)

3 Replies to “Newcastle v Arsenal: the influence this referee will have on the game”

  1. As much scrutiny as there is for teams at the top and bottom of the table there’s also scrutiny of the the referees. By Mike Riley. Last chance to impress the man and his handpicked successor. That does not bode well for AFC in the last 2 matches. Dean as VAR ref for both, lol?

  2. How is it we get Dean on VAR three games in a row? Anybody who claims that’s a random and unbiased selection is mistaken.

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