Brighton v Arsenal: the prediction based on the statistics



By Bulldog Drummond

So we are now back to our regular prediction machine, with its very simple methodology – yet thankfully still seemingly a methodology not copied by anyone else.   Even though we have been using it for several years.

As ever we take the home form of the home club and the away form of the away club, and compare them.   Which really isn’t too difficult to understand.

The away form league is especially interesting at the moment in that it shows us as above our nearest opposition not only on points but also on goals.  Our average result thus far a 2-0 or 2-1 win.  And we have a three-goal greater goal difference than Manchester City, despite their having a goal machine as their centre forward.


Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 8 6 1 1 14 4 10 19
2 Newcastle United 8 4 3 1 15 6 9 15
3 Manchester City 7 4 2 1 13 6 7 14


What is often forgotten is that before the Unbeaten Season, Arsenal had an Unbeaten Away season, in a run that took in the whole of 2001/2 and the start of the following season.  At the end of that season the top of the away table read…


Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 19 14 5 0 37 11 26 47
2 Manchester United 19 13 3 3 47 28 19 42


So we are obviously not going to emulate that but we are nevertheless doing ok away from home.  And it can fairly be pointed out that we have not had many away games against the top teams.  In fact, the only two we have had in the league are against Manchester United (lost 3-1) and against Chelsea (won 1-0).

So how are Brighton doing at home?

The answer is not so well, as they are 12th in the home league table, placing them not only below the big seven clubs of this season but also the likes of Brentford, Villa, Crystal Palace, and Fulham.  Comparing Arsenal away and Brighton at home we get


Team P W D L F A D Pts
12 Brighton and Hove Albion home 7 3 2 2 11 6 5 11
1 Arsenal away 8 6 1 1 14 4 10 19


which again suggests clearly an Arsenal victory.   But Arsenal have played one more away game than Brighton have played at home so taking that into account we get an Arsenal win by 1.25 to 0.71


Team F/game A/game GD/game
12 Brighton and Hove Albion home 1.57 0.86 0.71
1 Arsenal away 1.75 0.50 1.25


A 1-1 draw is possible but so is 1-0 to Arsenal or 2-1 to Arsenal.

Brighton have had two big wins at home: a 5-2 victory over Leicester in the period when Leicester were floundering at the foot of the league, and a 4-1 win over Chelsea.   That Chelsea result was indeed a surprise but came during a run of five league games without a win for Chelsea.

Leaving aside the wins over Chelsea and Leicester, all Brighton’s home games have been settled either by a maximum difference of one goal or have been goalless draws.  Not the most exciting fare for the folk of Falmer.

Arsenal’s away games have involved Arsenal scoring in every game.  Out of the eight away games played in the league Arsenal have scored one goal four times, two goals twice, and three goals twice.   Here’s the sequence so far…


Date Game Res Score
05 Aug 2022 Crystal Palace v Arsenal W 0-2
20 Aug 2022 AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal W 0-3
04 Sep 2022 Manchester United v Arsenal L 3-1
18 Sep 2022 Brentford v Arsenal W 0-3
16 Oct 2022 Leeds United v Arsenal W 0-1
23 Oct 2022 Southampton v Arsenal D 1-1
06 Nov 2022 Chelsea v Arsenal W 0-1
12 Nov 2022 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal W 0-2


Overall the results show we certainly can have a blip – as with the game against Southampton, but such moments are rare.    Both clubs came back from the enforced autumn break with victories – Brighton beating doomed Southampton away on Boxing Day 3-1 and Arsenal winning by the same score at home against West Ham.

More anon.

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