by the Referee Review Team
1: Referee Appointments and Results matchweek13
| Manchester City vs. Chelsea [1-3]
Referee – Anthony Taylor 1st Assistant Referee – Stuart Burt 2nd Assistant Referee – Adam Nunn Fourth Official – Mike Dean |
Crystal Palace vs. Southampton [3-0]
Referee – Neil Swarbrick 1st Assistant Referee – Scott Ledger 2nd Assistant Referee – Matthew Wilkes Fourth Official – Paul Tierney |
| Stoke City vs. Burnley [2-0]
Referee – Mark Clattenburg 1st Assistant Referee – Jake Collin 2nd Assistant Referee – Darren Cann Fourth Official – Kevin Friend |
Sunderland vs. Leicester City [2-1]
Referee – Andre Marriner 1st Assistant Referee – Simon Beck 2nd Assistant Referee – Andy Garratt Fourth Official – Jeremy Simpson |
| Tottenham vs. Swansea City [5-0]
Referee – Jon Moss 1st Assistant Referee – Mick McDonough 2nd Assistant Referee – Edward Smart Fourth Official – Andy Woolmer |
West Bromwich Albion vs. Watford [3-1]
Referee – Graham Scott 1st Assistant Referee – Richard West 2nd Assistant Referee – Andy Halliday Fourth Official – Mike Jones |
| West Ham United vs. Arsenal [1-5]
Referee – Craig Pawson 1st Assistant Referee – Harry Lennard 2nd Assistant Referee – Ian Hussin Fourth Official – Lee Mason |
Bournemouth vs. Liverpool [4-3]
Referee – Robert Madley 1st Assistant Referee – Peter Kirkup 2nd Assistant Referee – Marc Perry Fourth Official – Stuart Attwell |
| Everton vs. Manchester United [1-1]
Referee – Michael Oliver 1st Assistant Referee – Gary Beswick 2nd Assistant Referee – Simon Bennett Fourth Official – Paul Tierney |
Middlesbrough vs. Hull City [1-0]
Referee – Mike Dean 1st Assistant Referee – Simon Long 2nd Assistant Referee – Adrian Holmes Fourth Official – Mark Clattenburg |
2: Matchweek 14 Summary
22 wrong Important Decisions this week which is about average, 15 correct so still less than 50% correct across all referees and these are the best we have in the Country. I wouldn’t trust an outfit in charge of this shambles with organising refreshments in a brewery.
Referee of the Week with no wrong Important Decisions Neil Swarbrick (he also got his one Important Decision correct an accidental handball by a Palace defender so no penalty)
Worst Referees of the week with 4 wrong Important Decisions Michael Oliver at Everton v Man United. He should have sent off Barry for two yellow cards, Rojo and Ibrahimovic with straight red cards and awarded a penalty against Baines for handball, (in fairness he also got one Important Decision correct when he awarded an Everton Penalty for a clear foul by Fellaini). Also Graham Scott at West Brom v Watford. McAuley and Rondon should have been sent off for West Brom, The West Brom second goal in Min 22 should have been ruled out for obstruction on the Warford keeper and West Brom should have had a penalty in Min 53 (but the player who was fouled shouldn’t have been on the pitch). Against a 9 man West Brom we feel it highly likely that Watford would have been able to score the one goal they needed for a draw.
3: Games where the referee arguably affected the result of the game
Graham Scott – West Bromwich Albion v Watford The game finished as a 3 – 1 win for West Brom but we feel that it should have been a draw as although one nil down at the time, they should have been able to make a one man advantage count for the 75 minutes remaining and a two man advantage from Min 25 after Rondon’s sending off. Even a team as poor as Watford should be able to make up a one man advantage over the course of 65 minutes.
4 Lucky Players who should have been sent off but weren’t
- Straight Red Cards (Should be missing the next three games) McAuley and Rondon (West Brom), Snodgrass (Hull), N’Dong (Sunderland), Hendrick (Burnley), Barnes (Burnley), Rojo and Ibrahimović (Man United), Taylor (Swansea) Luiz and Fabregas (Chelsea)
- Second Yellow Cards (should be missing the next game) Barry (Everton), Fernandinho (Man City),
- Villain of the Week – A number of candidates this week Rojo for his two footed lunge on Gana. This ‘tackle’ is two footed, both legs straight and studs on both feet showing. It is needless, reckless and could easily have broken the Everton player’s legs. Ibrahimović for his deliberate heel to the head of Coleman. Taylor for his forehead high kick on Walker, Dele Alli for yet another blatant dive to win a penalty for Spurs. Aguero (Man City) for his late kick at Luiz (correct red card) and Fabregas (Chelsea) for his sly slap to Fernandinho’s cheek to guarantee an inflamed situation completely boiled over. However, in my opinion the award goes to none of these. This week’s Villain of the Week award goes to Michael Oliver who allowed two disgusting fouls to be committed in his game and failed to recognise either of them for what they were. Sooner or later he is going to preside over a career ending injury if he continues to allow such brutality to persist.
5: List of Major Errors on Matchweek #14
1. No Red Card Against Gareth McAuley (Min 15) – McAuley made a very late sliding tackle from the front and brought down Amrabat as the last defender. [Ref – Graham Scott] West Bromwich vs Watford McAuley Red, Rondon West Brom
2. Wrong Goal Against Watford (Min 16) – Fletcher clearly blocked the movement and the path of the goal keeper on the corner kick and that is a foul. [Ref – Graham Scott] West Bromwich vs Watford Wrong Goal Foul on Goalie
3. No Red Card Against Solomon Rondon (Min 25) – After Kabasele made a clean tackle on Rondon, Rondon instead of raising his foot over Kabasele, drags his foot across his face. Serious foul play and violent conduct. [Ref – Graham Scott] West Bromwich vs Watford Rondon Red
4. No Penalty For West Bromwich (Min 53) – Kabasele held down and pulled back Rondon by the arm inside the penalty box. [Ref – Graham Scott] West Bromwich vs Watford Rondon Penalty
5. No Red Card Against Robert Snodgrass (Min (73) – Snodgrass had the player in front of him so he knew he would put his studs in the direction of his face and bring the other player in serious danger. [Ref – Mike Dean] Boro vs Hull Snodgrass Red
6. No Red Card Against Didier Ndong (Min 15) – Ndong goes in with an outstretched leg and plants his studs on Albrightonr who is already on the floor. [Ref – Andre Marriner] Sunderland vs Leicester Ndong Red
7. No Penalty For Sunderland (Min 15) – Anichebe tried to take a shot on goal from inside the penalty box when Morgan held and pulled Anichebe by the shirt and arm. [Ref – Andre Marriner] Sunderland vs Leicester Anichebe Second Penalty
8. No Penalty For Sunderland (Min 65) – Simpson first played the ball but then made another kick and made contact with the thigh and the other foot of Van Aanholt and tripped him inside the box. [Ref – Andre Marriner] Sunderland vs Leicester Aanholt Penalty , Sunderland vs Leicester Aanholt Penalty002
9. No Red Card Against Jeff Hendrick (Min 13) – Adam played the ball and the Burnley player was a bit late. The Burnley player had his foot above the ball so a red card should have been given. Serious foul play. [Ref – Mark Clattenburg] Stoke vs Burnley Hendrick Red
10. No Red Card Against Ashley Barnes (Min 62) – Barnes raised and swung his elbow in to the head Martins Indi. Use of excessive force. [Ref – Mark Clattenburg] Stoke vs Burnley Barnes Red , Stoke vs Burnley Barnes Red002
11. No Second Yellow Card Against Gareth Barry (Min 31) – Barry committed one reckless foul and one act of persistent fouling along with an attempt to delay the start of play, but he was only booked for the latter. [Ref – Michael Oliver] Everton vs Man Utd Barry Yellow , Everton vs Man Utd Barry Yellow002 , Everton vs Man Utd Barry Second Yellow
12. No Red Card Against Marco Rojo (Min 16) – Rojo went in lunging two footed towards Gana. Serious foul play and use of excessive force. [Ref – Michael Oliver] Everton vs Man Utd Rojo Red , Everton vs Man Utd Rojo Red002
13. No Red Card Against Zlatan Ibrahimović (Min 50) – Ibrahimović struck his foot on the head on Coleman who was already down on the floor. [Ref – Michael Oliver] Everton vs Man Utd Zlatan Red , Everton vs Man Utd Zlatan Red002, Everton vs Man Utd Zlatan Red003
14. No Penalty For Manchester United (Min 54) – Baines went in sliding on the ball with his stretched and gently pushed it away inside the box. [Ref – Michael Oliver] Everton vs Man Utd Baines Handball Penalty
15. No Red Card Against Neil Taylor (Min 6) – Taylor struck his foot very high in to the face of Walker. Serious foul play. [Ref – Jon Moss] Spurs vs Swansea Taylor Red
16. Wrong Penalty Against Swansea City (Min 38) – Dele Alli clearly dived in to the ground with the defender making absolutely no attempt to get near the ball or make a tackle. [Ref – Jon Moss] Spurs vs Swansea Alli Penalty Dive , Spurs vs Swansea Alli Penalty Dive002 , Spurs vs Swansea Alli Penalty Dive003
17. Wrong Goal Against Swansea City (Min 39) – As the penalty given above was wrong, the goal scored was illegal. [Ref – Jon Moss]
18. No Penalty For Bournemouth (Min 37) – Firmino went in with a standing tackle and fouled against the knee of Ake inside the box. [Ref – Robert Madley] Bournemouth vs Liverpool Ake Penalty , Bournemouth vs Liverpool Ake Penalty002 , Bournemouth vs Liverpool Ake Penalty003
19. No Second Yellow Card Against Fernandinho (Min 13) – Fernandinho committed two reckless fouls and was booked for none of them. [Ref – Anthony Taylor] Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Yellow , Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Yellow002 , Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Second Yellow
20. No Red Card Against David Luiz (Min 30) – Luiz brought down Aguero who would have been one on one with the keeper so a last defenders foul and a red card should have been the result. [Ref – Anthony Taylor] Man City vs Chelsea Luiz Red , Man City vs Chelsea Luiz Red002 , Man City vs Chelsea Luiz Red003
21. No Red Card for Fabregas (Min 90+7:45) for a slap on Fernandinho during the mass brawl between Chelsea and City players following the sending off of Aguero Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Red Fight006
22. Wrong Goal Against West Ham (Min 86) – Sanchez was in an offside position when he received the pass and went on to score the goal. [Ref – Craig Pawson] West Ham vs Arsenal Sanchez Offside Goal
6: List of Major Correct Decisions on Matchweek #14
1. Correct Non-Penalty For West Bromwich (Min 77) – The goal keeper cleanly pushed away the ball before Pereyra had reached it inside the box. [Ref – Graham Scott] West Bromwich vs Watford Pereyra Penalty , West Bromwich vs Watford Pereyra Penalty002
2. Correct Non-Penalty For West Bromwich (Min 81) – The goal keeper cleanly pushed away the ball before Okaka had reached to it inside the box. [Ref – Graham Scott] West Bromwich vs Watford Okaka Penalty
3. Correct Red Card Against Roberto Pereyra (Min 84) – Pereyra lashed out at McClean with a wild kick after the ball was out of play. Clear violent conduct. [Ref – Graham Scott] West Bromwich vs Watford Pereyra Red , West Bromwich vs Watford Pereyra Red002 , West Bromwich vs Watford Pereyra Red003 , West Bromwich vs Watford Pereyra Red004 , West Bromwich vs Watford Pereyra Red005
4. Correct Non-Penalty For Hull City (Min 46) – As Negredo initially tried to block the path of the keeper by backing in to him it was the first foul that should have been punished so a free kick in favour of the keeper. [Ref – Mike Dean] Boro vs Hull Negredo Penalty
5. Correct Non-Penalty For Hull City (Min 55) – A shoulder push, the attacker didn’t fall over so no exaggerated force used and in that case a shoulder against shoulder is allowed: no penalty. [Ref – Mike Dean] Boro vs Hull Gibson Penalty
6. Correct Non-Penalty For Leicester (Min 5) – Both Anichebe and Morgan are holding each other inside the penalty box, foul cancels out. [Ref – Andre Marriner] Sunderland vs Leicester Anichebe Penalty
7. Correct Penalty For Everton (Min 89) – Fellaini goes in with a standing tackle and fouls against the knee of Gana inside the box. [Ref – Michael Oliver] Everton vs Man Utd Fellaini Penalty , Everton vs Man Utd Fellaini Penalty002 , Everton vs Man Utd Fellaini Penalty003
8. Correct Penalty For Bournemouth (Min 55) – Fraser was first on the ball and was brought down on the leg from behind by Milner inside the box. [Ref – Robert Madley] Bournemouth vs Liverpool Fraser Penalty , Bournemouth vs Liverpool Fraser Penalty002
9. Correct Non-Penalty For Crystal Palace (Min 60) – The ball hits the arm of Dann after a very big deflection from a short range inside the box. Not intentional. [Ref – Neil Swarbrick] Palace vs Saints Handball Penalty
10. Correct Non-Penalty For Chelsea (Min 6) – As the ball came from behind Cahill it can be said that he had no intention of playing the ball, he slid in to block a possible cross and supported his body with his arm on the floor nowhere near the ball so probably a correct decision to not give a penalty. [Ref – Anthony Taylor] Man City vs Chelsea Cahill Penalty , Man City vs Chelsea Cahill Penalty002 , Man City vs Chelsea Cahill Penalty003
11. Correct Non-Penalty For Chelsea (Min 44) – With only this angle we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the ref. No conclusive view of the incident. [Ref – Anthony Taylor] Man City vs Chelsea Gundogan Penalty
12,13. Correct Non-Penalties For Chelsea (Min 77) – No conclusive evidence that contact was made between the foot of the Chelsea player with the attacker from City. The benefit of the doubt is given to the referee on the field. For the earlier appeal it was no handball as it hit the chest of Luiz. [Ref – Anthony Taylor] Man City vs Chelsea Two Penalties in One , Man City vs Chelsea Two Penalties in One002
14. Correct Red Card Against Sergio Aguero (Min 96) – Aguero goes over the ball and plants his studs on the knee. The ball was on the floor when Luiz kicked it so the way Aguero came in had nothing to do with the ball. [Ref – Anthony Taylor] Man City vs Chelsea Aguero Red , Man City vs Chelsea Aguero Red002
15. Correct Red Card Against Fernandinho (Min 97) – Fernandinho grabbed Fabregas by the throat and threw him over the sign boards. Violent conduct. [Ref – Anthony Taylor] Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Red Fight , Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Red Fight002 , Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Red Fight003 , Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Red Fight004 , Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Red Fight005 , Man City vs Chelsea Fernandinho Red Fight006
7: Major Wrong Decisions Made by Referees
Over all 14 weeks we now have a total of 280 wrong Important Decisions, an average of 2 per game. Looking at all of the referees individual averages, the Standard Deviation for a ‘Normal Distribution’ is remarkably small at 0.5 and if we assume that any referee within the Average score +/1 twice the Standard Deviation is relatively unusual we can conclude that all of the referees are statistically as likely as each other to make mistakes. The Telegraph assertion that three referees should be sacked/demoted is therefore fallacious – they all should be sacked as probably none are competent.
In a long article on referees and refereeing on 4/1/17 The Telegraph have reported that all referees were sent a reminder about what constitutes a sending off offence before Christmas. Rest assured we will look at any impact this has had on the accuracy of the referees from week 19 onwards.
| This Week | Season to Date | |||||||||||
| Referee | 2nd Yellow | Red | Pen | Goal | All | Games | 2nd Yellow | Red | Pen | Goal | All | Avg |
| Andre Marriner | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 22 | 2 |
| Anthony Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 1.9 |
| Craig Pawson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 21 | 2.3 |
| Graham Scott | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2.17 |
| Jon Moss | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 2 |
| Kevin Friend | 7 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 1.7 | |||||
| Lee Mason | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 2 | |||||
| Mark Clattenburg | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 2 |
| Martin Atkinson | 10 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 1.8 | |||||
| Michael Oliver | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 2.17 |
| Mike Dean | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 2.36 |
| Mike Jones | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 1.6 | |||||
| Neil Swarbrick | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Paul Tierney | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1.3 | |||||
| Robert Madley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 26 | 2.36 |
| Roger East | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 3 | |||||
| Stuart Attwell | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.3 | |||||
8: Major Correct Major Decisions Made by Referees
A Commendation this week for Anthony Taylor who had a very difficult game when Man City entertained Chelsea. He managed to get 6 Important Decisions correct, two Red Cards and four Penalties. It was a pity that he missed the slap by Fabregas in the mass brawl at the end, as did his other assistants and the FA in their post game deliberations. He also missed a second yellow card on Fernandinho and (inexplicably) Luiz deliberately taking out Aguero when last man. This probably had a bearing on Aguero’s foul on Luiz which triggered the brawl.
| This Week | Season to Date | ||||||||
| Referee | 2nd Yellow | Red | Pen | Total | Matches | Second Yellow Cards | Red Cards | Penalties | Total |
| Andre Marriner | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
| Anthony Taylor | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10+3* | 15 |
| Craig Pawson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| Graham Scott | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5+1* | 7 |
| Jon Moss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 6+1* | 9 |
| Kevin Friend | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | ||||
| Lee Mason | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5+1* | 7 | ||||
| Mark Clattenburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19+1* | 21 |
| Martin Atkinson | 10 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | ||||
| Michael Oliver | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| Mike Dean | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 |
| Mike Jones | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | ||||
| Neil Swarbrick | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| Paul Tierney | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| Robert Madley | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| Roger East | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | ||||
| Stuart Attwell | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4+1* | 5 | ||||
NOTE – THE *(ASTERISK) IS USED TO SHOW A DECISION OF HIGH DOUBT, WITH THE BENEFIT BEING GIVEN TO THE REFEREE.
It is perhaps interesting at this point to look at a couple of charts showing the differing distribution between the referees correct and incorrect decisions. The correct are almost exclusively penalty decisions (overall the referees are getting nearly two thirds of these correct this season which is a massive improvement from previous years), the wrong are much more evenly distributed between the four categories (those for sendings off are appallingly bad with 13 correct out of 160) and can there be any excuses for 26 incorrect goals in the first 140 games?
9: Major Wrong Decisions Against Teams
No particular changes this week. I just want to have a look at whether or not the differences at the top and bottom of the table are significant. Assuming a “Normal Distribution” the table has a Mean of 14 and a Standard Deviation of 5.6. The only team with a value outside Mean plus or minus twice the Standard Deviation is Arsenal (upper limit of 25 and lower of 3). To have this many wrong decisions against us is statistically unlikely albeit not impossible.
| Team | Second Yellow Cards | Red Cards | Penalties | Goals | Total |
| Arsenal | 10 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| Bournemouth | 4 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| Liverpool | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 20 |
| West Ham United | 7 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 20 |
| Everton | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 4 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| Stoke City | 2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| Chelsea | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| Crystal Palace | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| Middlesbrough | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| Swansea City | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| Watford | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| Southampton | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| West Bromwich | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| Tottenham | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| Hull City | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| Leicester City | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Burnley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Sunderland | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
10: Major Wrong Decisions in Favour of Teams
This is essentially the converse of the data in Section 9 and shows where the largesse of the PGMO has fallen to date. Again no real changes.
Looking at the statistics behind these numbers and again assuming a “Normal Distribution” the table also has a Mean of 14 and a Standard Deviation of 5.6. The only team with a value outside Mean plus or minus twice the Standard Deviation is manchester United (upper limit of 25 and lower of 3) for them to have this many favourable decisions is also unlikely without outside influence.
| Team | Second Yellow Cards | Red Cards | Penalties | Goals | Total |
| Manchester United | 10 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 26 |
| Tottenham | 10 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| Watford | 4 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 22 |
| Sunderland | 4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| Everton | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| Leicester City | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 17 |
| West Bromwich | 2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| Burnley | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| Southampton | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| Stoke City | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| Swansea City | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| West Ham United | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| Crystal Palace | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| Manchester City | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Hull City | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| Middlesbrough | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| Bournemouth | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Arsenal | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
11: Possible Change in Points Week-by-Week Due To Wrong Major Decisions
NOTE – THE PLUS SIGN MEANS THESE TEAMS WERE DENIED THIS MUCH POINTS AND IT SHOULD BE ADDED TO THEM.
THE MINUS SIGN MEANS THAT THESE TEAMS WERE AWARDED THESE EXTRA POINTS AND IT SHOULD BE SUBTRACTED FROM THEM.
| Team | Week #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 | Total |
| Arsenal | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | +6 |
| Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | +2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
| Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Crystal Palace | 0 | +1 | -1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
| Everton | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Hull City | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leicester City | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Liverpool | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
| Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Manchester United | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| Middlesbrough | +2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 |
| Southampton | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| Stoke City | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
| Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Swansea City | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
| Tottenham | -1 | -2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
| Watford | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -5 |
| West Bromwich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | -2 | -2 |
| West Ham United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
12: English Premier League Table Official
| Rank | Team | Points |
| 1 | Chelsea | 34 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 31 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 30 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 30 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 27 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 21 |
| 7 | West Bromwich | 20 |
| 8 | Everton | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 19 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 18 |
| 11 | Watford | 18 |
| 12 | Southampton | 17 |
| 13 | Middlesbrough | 15 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 14 |
| 15 | Burnley | 14 |
| 16 | Leicester City | 13 |
| 17 | West Ham United | 12 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 11 |
| 19 | Hull City | 11 |
| 20 | Swansea City | 9 |
13: English Premier League Table Adjusted to Change in Points due to Major Wrong Decisions.
At this point in the season Arsenal should have been first in the table with 37 points ahead of Chelsea, Liverpool and City. Sunderland and Hull should be bottom on 11 with Swansea, West Ham and Watford just above them on 13.
Manchester United should have 15 points and Middlesbrough comfortable in mid table with 21 rather than fighting to stay out of the relegation fight on 15 points.
| Rank | Team | Total Change in Points | Points |
| 1 | Arsenal | +6 | 37 |
| 2 | Chelsea | -1 | 33 |
| 3 | Liverpool | +3 | 33 |
| 4 | Manchester City | +1 | 31 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | +7 | 25 |
| 6 | Stoke City | +3 | 22 |
| 7 | Tottenham | -5 | 22 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | +6 | 21 |
| 9 | Everton | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Southampton | +1 | 18 |
| 11 | West Bromwich | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Burnley | +1 | 15 |
| 14 | Manchester United | -6 | 15 |
| 15 | Leicester City | +1 | 14 |
| 16 | Swansea City | +4 | 13 |
| 17 | Watford | -5 | 13 |
| 18 | West Ham United | +1 | 13 |
| 19 | Hull City | 0 | 11 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 0 | 11 |
Untold Arsenal:
How football laid down the rules for the post-truth world
Referee Appointments and Results Matchweek 14 – The bullet points
For the sake of some of its fans, should Arsenal be sectioned under the Mental Health Act?
Ref Review : Arsenal – WBA: the ref who turned his back on time wasting
Arsenal sign their first player of the window, and it is quite a surprise.
How the FA, PL and PGMO backtracked on the promises made by the National Review Board.
Bournemouth – Arsenal : 3-3 crazy match, great come back
New from the Arsenal History Society – all the player histories indexed. The AHS player histories tend to be more detailed than those on the official Arsenal site – especially for players from the early part of Arsenal’s history. Now we are undertaking the huge task of indexing the main articles. Players with surnames A to K have been linked to their main articles and we are continuing the task day by day. L is complete and M is underway.
It’s quite unbelievable how Man U players get away with that stuff week after week yet as soon as someone goes in for a 50/50 ball with one of them the red card is immediately out against their opponents. I think this season they may actually end up benefitting by more than their usual 20 point gift from the PIGMOB……………………..and still won’t make the top four!
Is it good that Liverpool get a lot of bad influence on results by the officials too? I mean a little bit like Arsenal. Like this maybe we will have new ‘friends’ in order to reveal to the world these obvious problems. I am sick of people who say that is an excuse to justify any “could be better” result.
All the fans should ask for more transparency and I hope them to get more and more sick about the way it is for too long!
Chart how often referees and fourth officials are in tandum please, I can see a pattern.
Create a membership pge, make everyone sign up from now on, we must conform. They are right they are printing what we discuss here!
1 point gained, we found out we can change a game in 20mins and we have a seriously problem coming out slowly atm, creating pressure on ourselves.
Left back 1 in, tymon, maybe he wants to go somewhere else? Stay north, but when he says it’s Ashley and the player says pace, and sounds so mature already, I say yes. We need a starter at left back.
Hector had a bad one, b een off since he returned, same with Ramsey, and Ox, all from injuries killing their rhythm.
But now 3 points to second and 3 games to take first, I think we are still well situated, at some point the criticism has to motivate them. Alexis is right, why celebrate, Giroud, playing better from his situation. Perez again proving he is a number 9. I said already a change in formation 4-4-2 is the best you just tweak it into other things.
13 is the magic number, know when you are a threat, your enemy ramp up their attacks!
Weekend spent writing up the UK for vs me! It’s tooo easy! If only they would stop literally robbing me!
😀 I believe in the team and us, Mail can suck out, Ozil will sign and Alexis. Would love to know what it is, Kroenke, I am sure!
CIOYG, nothing should stop us!
I don’t see much particular reliance on Gaussian (normal) distributions here. Any finite sampling of a distribution will have a mean (average, expected value), and hence it is possible to calculate the mean square deviation of individual points from the average. Of course this estimate is biased by the requirement that we needed to calculate the mean, so we need to correct for that (in a way that disappears as sample size increases).
Using the Gaussian distribution for problems which only allow positive (or 0) values is in a sense bogus. As long as your mean is more than 3 (or so) standard deviations above 0, that isn’t much of a problem any more.
At point 7, you found an average of 2 with a standard deviation of 0.5. Which puts 0 at about 4 standard deviations off the mean. So, you are approximately okay. A quick check would be to see how many times you observe more than average + 4 standard deviations (which is how many times you observe more than 4 wrong calls in a game). Unless you are looking at thousands (millions?) of games, this should also be very small. Two would (probably) be too large for how many games you have observed.
The Gaussian distribution is symmetric. There are two comparisons that can be used to look at deviations from being symmetric: comparing the median to the mean, and calculating the skewness. If we have sampled many points (usually more than football allows), such that the mode (most common value) is well defined, we will find that the mode is on one side of the median, and the average is on the other side for asymmetric distributions.
My initial guess at a probability function for your wrong call data, would be Poisson. But, if the average is 2 and the standard deviation is 0.5 (which means the variance is about 0.25), it obviously can’t be Poisson.
The binomial distribution can approximate distributions that might be Poisson, but have too small a variance. The mean of a binomial is np (=2), while the variance is np(1-p) (=0.25).
First, solve for (1-p) and then p.
2 * (1-p) = 0.25
1-p = 0.125
1-0.125 = p = 0.875
Now we can find n
np = 2 = n * 0.875
n = 2 / 0.875
n = 2.29
Noninteger n. Hmmm. Let’s blindly calculate the skewness.
(1-2p) / sqrt( np(1-p) )
Well, np(1-p) is just our variance of 0.25 (1/4), and the square root of that is 1/2.
1 – 2 * 0.875 is -0.75. If we divide that by 1/2 (same as multiplying by 2), we find a skewness of -1.5.
I stumbled across one rule of thumb that the skewness had to be less than 1/3, which I can’t find now. Ah, the absolute value has to be less than 1/3 for approximating with a Gaussian. So, this confirms that we probably don’t want to go using rules about Gaussians for this particular problem.
There is not really anything special about the standard deviation. It is just a convenient “tape measure” in statistical problems. There are others: probable error, median absolute error and full width at half maximum come to mind.
Any rules one has for describing things via a binomial become hard to work when you have non-integer n. For one thing, n! (n factorial) is part of the calculations. Factorial requires integer arguments. So, you have to generalize to a gamma function, so we are looking for n! = Gamma(n + 1).
And things just get messier from there.
Well, thanks for all your work, i know it’s time consuming having just started to fiddle with video editing software myself.
To the incidents:
Everton vs Man Utd Zlatan Red
Wow, Zlatan even bounced on Coleman twice before kicking him in the head.
Everton vs Man Utd Baines Handball Penalty
Couldn’t agree on this as he could not move his hand/shoulder out of the way due to his fall and the ball came towards him and not the other way. But the more i watched it i saw that Baines did not trip, was not shoved so he had no reason to be on the ground, making it very deliberate. Well spotted.
Spurs vs Swansea Alli Penalty Dive
I thought he was practicing for a part in Swan Lake.
Man City vs Chelsea Aguero Red002
At first i thought he was trying to kick the ball, but then i realised the kick was far too high to kick the ball.
It’s amazing that the ref is closer than anyone in most of these incidents and he gets it wrong.
It’s time that these incidents are punished after the game, especially the clear dangerous and intentional ones regardless of the game result. At least there would be some form of penalty until “Video Ref” comes on the scene.
If players know they are going to get away with it, well 95% of them will do it, 4% will do it anyway regardless and 1% would not even think of doing it much less carry out the action.
Goonermikey
Maybe thats why Moo was angling for the Utd job for so long. His many years in the PL would have shown him the favourism shown to Utd, indeed he has i’m sure complained or moaned publicly and was promptly fined.
Gord
Man oh man, do you talk to everyone in numbers? 🙂 Just kidding.
But sometimes i have found that we as a society tend to make things too complex when simple common sense rules. Not knocking numbers, but most times a small hammer can knock in a nail better than a sledge hammer.
Ignore me, i am rambling. Just trying to cover up that i have no clue (anymore) of what you are talking. 🙂
Para
In a sense, yes I talk numbers. And I went into engineering, where I am surrounded by numbers. Or can be.
A problem with football, is that we (now) convert the concept of “win” into 3 points. In the past, it was 2 points. A tie has (always) been 1 point, as a loss has been 0. These “conversions” are arbitrary, somebody just decided.
An old truism related to your hammer: if all you have is a hammer, the world looks like a nail.
Sorry, I don’t believe in “simple common sense”. What you describe is a cluster (in a statistical sense) of prejudices. Where I live, it can be winter for 6 months of the year. People here tend to grow up with a different set of prejudices than people who grow up in tropical places (where water never freezes).
Most things that you can find in a liquid (molten) form, when they freeze the density increases. Water is the opposite. Frozen water floats on liquid water. If this wasn’t true, life in lakes and oceans in places where water can freeze would be much different.
Para
One of the many textbooks I have, has a saying in the preface
The object of computing is insight, not numbers.
It isn’t always easy to calculate things. But the purpose of the calculation is to learn something.
A long time ago, bridges were designed using a set of rules (a kind of common sense you might say). Things worked fine, we could calculate things according to these rules, and based on those calculations we could dig holes and cut timbers and fasten pieces together and eventually we had a bridge. Then we had Tacoma Narrows. We (engineering) realised that the rules we had for building bridges, was not sufficiently correct. We had to find why our rules were not good enough, and we have to improve them. Lots of calculating and measuring went on. Since then, I don’t think we’ve had a bridge failure due to aerodynamic forces acting in concert with a resonant vibration of a bridge.
More about numbers.
It is usually easy for people to find 1 number. Tony talks about this a lot, the number of goals scored in the last game. But, you really can’t do anything with one number. I believe Douglas Adams liked 42.
Can we find 2 numbers? Probably. We can calculate an average of 2 numbers fairly easily. We could calculate a standard deviation , but the number is probably meaningless. What happens if the two numbers are identical? Very close together? Very far apart. If they are identical, there is a chance that one is a copy of the other, and hence you actually only have 1 number. If they are far apart, one (or even both) of them could be an outlier (from some other probability distribution, not the one you think you are sampling). So then you end up throwing one (or both) away, and you are stuck with not enough numbers or no numbers at all.
Can we find 3 numbers? With 3 numbers, we can calculate the median (and not have to use this hokey average of the 2 middlemost nonsense). And the median is a more robust indicator of central tendency than the average is. What happens if we have one, or 2 outliers? At the end of the day, 3 numbers just isn’t enough to hang your hat on.
4 numbers? We don’t want to deal with even numbers if we can avoid them, then we have to use this hokey rule to find a median.
So really, there is really no sense even thinking about analysing anything, unless you have at least 5 numbers to look at. That allows for outliers, and still allows medians. And forget about standard deviation (unless you know your data is coming from a Gaussian). MAD (median absolute deviation) tells you what is half way between your median, and your extremes. If you don’t like halfway, work with something based on percentiles.
Can we get 5 or more numbers? Wenger has been here a long time (I hope he sticks around a lot longer). But, how long does a manager last in the EPL? Two years? At 2 games per season, that means you might play against the same team (presumably with the same owner) and the same manager 4 times. Which isn’t enough.
We don’t want to see the same referee more than twice per season. But, is 😈 Mike Riley going to assign a given referee to the same team 5 or more times in a season?
Statistics grew up with paper and pencil, all the calculations are tedious. So, people took short cuts. Central limit theorem is the justification for all things Gaussian (they call it normal). Sure, properties of the double exponential and the infite range of definition allow for analytical expressions involving powers of the independent variable multiplied by the probability integrated over all possible values of the independent variable (if you don’t understand calculus, don’t worry).
But we often get faced with problems that have insufficient data (seldom as bad as football), where the underlying probability distribution is not known, is not symmetric or even more fun, has undefined moments. It is possible to find problems where the average does not exist. The median is still there. It might not be easy finding it, but it is still there.
Where we need to go is the bootstrap, jack-knife and other newer methods. We take a little artistic license with the data we do have, and we artificially expand the data set to something useful. And we just use percentiles for confidence limits, leave the Gaussians for the people who don’t understand statistics.
And remember, we are looking for insight. Not just practice at manipulating numbers.
(Now can I get to sleep?)
And when we start applying percentages to insignificant sample sizes we get plausible sounding meaningless but convincing messages.
Who are you talking to Robido?