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Arsenal v Chelsea: the indicators that tend to be the best predictors of the result

by Bulldog Drummond

Throughout this season we have been comparing the home and away form of the clubs we’ve been playing, and it has proven to be one of the most straightforward and reliable indicators of what might happen.  Not perfect of could – we would need to factor in the referee at the same time to get closer, but still better than many other predictors.

Arsenal’s home form ahead of the Chelsea game on Wednesday reads like this

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 10 9 1 0 36 7 29 28
2 Manchester United 11 8 2 1 24 5 19 26
3 Arsenal 10 8 1 1 25 10 15 25
4 Chelsea 11 8 1 2 21 7 14 25
5 Liverpool 11 6 5 0 21 4 17 23

Not as good as it was looking a while back but still we are only three points behind the Sovereign Wealth of a middle east state.   Our one defeat however was to Man U and Chelsea will certainly have been given hope from the manner in which the West Brom game was refereed – and to cover all points the way in this game will be refereed (see Andrew’s preview if you have not yet taken a peek Arsenal v Chelsea Wednesday 3 January 20018 – The Match Officials).

And Chelsea’s away form is strong

Pos Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 11 10 1 0 25 5 20 31
2 Manchester United 11 6 3 2 21 11 10 21
3 Liverpool 11 6 3 2 29 21 8 21
4 Chelsea 10 6 2 2 18 7 11 20
5 Burnley 11 4 5 2 11 11 0 17

18 goals against seven is a good ratio for an away team and contrasts with 25 goals scored by Arsenal in the league at home, and ten against.  These tables suggest a one goal victory to Arsenal.

Despite the disappointments of drawing after being ahead against Liverpool and West Brom, we are still nonetheless on an undefeated streak

Date Game Res Score Competition
07 Dec 2017 Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov W 6-0 UEFA Europa League
10 Dec 2017 Southampton v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
13 Dec 2017 West Ham United v Arsenal D 0-0 Premier League
16 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 1-0 Premier League
19 Dec 2017 Arsenal v West Ham United W 1-0 League Cup
22 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Liverpool D 3-3 Premier League
28 Dec 2017 Crystal Palace v Arsenal W 2-3 Premier League
31 Dec 2017 West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League

In the last eight that is four wins and four draws for Arsenal.  No defeats but I think we were all hopeful of a win on the last day of the year – and would have got it had the referee not stepped in to influence the result.

Chelsea’s last eight includes a Football League Trophy match against Milton Keynes Dons which they drew, and I have left that out of the charts for now, since it is primarily a competition for the under 23 team, without any first team players in it at all, so a significantly lower level than the League Cup

Date Game Res Score Competition
05 Dec 2017 Chelsea v Atlético Madrid D 1-1 Champions League
09 Dec 2017 West Ham United v Chelsea L 1-0 Premier League
12 Dec 2017 Huddersfield Town v Chelsea W 1-3 Premier League
16 Dec 2017 Chelsea v Southampton W 1-0 Premier League
20 Dec 2017 Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth W 2-1 League Cup
23 Dec 2017 Everton v Chelsea D 0-0 Premier League
26 Dec 2017 Chelsea v Brighton and Hove W 2-0 Premier League
30 Dec 2017 Chelsea v Stoke City W 5-0 Premier League

Their run gives them five wins, two draws and one defeat – that defeat away to State Aid.

It is interesting that the Chelsea fixture list has given them in this run, a series of games against teams from the lower parts of the league.  True, we have only had one game against a club above us in the League (Liverpool) but Chelsea have managed to skate through the games without a single one of these.

For Arsenal it was disappointing to see that after six goals in two games we could only get one against WBA, although curiously Chelsea’s last three league games have given them seven goals, but ominously they have conceded none.

And the same time we have shot up the injury charts.  I’ll come back to this in more detail tomorrow but for now there is the chance that we could be missing Kolasinac, Koscielny, Ozil, Monreal, Giroud and Ramsey.  The last three look certain to miss the game, and Kolasinac could be out as well.

We shall see more tomorrow.

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3 comments to Arsenal v Chelsea: the indicators that tend to be the best predictors of the result

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Despite the stars studded team that Antonio Conte has assembled and parading this season, I am strongly of the belief that Arsenal for the 2nd season running will unfailingly beats Chelsea again in another Premier League match encounter between the duo teams that will be played tomorrow at the Emirates Stadium.

    With all things taken in accounts and diligently considered, The Gunners who are already charged up and poised to take the Blues by sword in the game will not allow any anti-Arsenal referring in this match to deter them from collecting all the points in the match as the will negate all attempts by referee Anthony Taylor and his two match assistants to scuttle Arsenal victory over Chelsea by whistling and flagging anti-Arsenal whistling and flagging in the match.

    The Gunners if it comes to that should activate their anti-PGMOB match referees and linesmen that renders into obsolete state of any anti-Arsenal PL match referring by the PGMOB referees and linemen orchestrated against Welbeck in PL games and put paid to any Chelsea resistant to incur defeat in the game at the hands of Arsenal.

    My 3-2-3-1 and 7 Gunners Arsenal starts and bench for the match.

    Starts:
    Cech
    Chambers………Koscielny……… .Mustafi
    ……………..Bellerin………….Maitland………
    …Oezil…..Wilshere…..Xhaka…..Sanchez
    ………………….Lacazette…………………..

    Bench:
    Ospina Debuchy Mertesacker Coquelin. ElNeny Walcott Welbeck.

    Yes! Final scores: AFC 3-0 CFC @FT +.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Despite the stars studded team that Antonio Conte has assembled and parading this season, I am strongly of the belief that Arsenal for the 2nd season running will unfailingly beats Chelsea again in another Premier League match encounter between the duo teams that will be played tomorrow at the Emirates Stadium.

    With all things taken in accounts and diligently considered, The Gunners who are already charged up and poised to take the Blues by the swords in the game will not allow any anti-Arsenal referring in this match to deter them from collecting all the points in the match as the will negate all attempts by referee Anthony Taylor and his two match assistants to scuttle Arsenal victory over Chelsea by whistling and flagging anti-Arsenal whistling and flagging in the match.

    The Gunners if it comes to that should activate their anti-PGMOB match referees and linesmen that renders into obsolete state of any anti-Arsenal PL match referring by the PGMOB referees and linemen orchestrated againtyphoe Gunners in PL games and put paid to any Chelsea resistant to incur defeat in the game at the hands of Arsenal.

    My 3-2-3-1 and 7 Gunners Arsenal starts and bench for the match.

    Starts:
    Cech
    Chambers………Koscielny……… .Mustafi
    ……………..Bellerin………….Maitland………
    …Oezil…..Wilshere…..Xhaka…..Sanchez
    ………………….Lacazette…………………..

    Bench:
    Ospina Debuchy Mertesacker Coquelin. ElNeny Walcott Welbeck.

    Yes! Final scores: AFC 3-0 CFC @FT +.

    Sorry! I corrected my typos and repost.

  • Menace

    2018 to be sure to be sure!

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